The Graupler Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 19 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Not looking good for coastal peeps...this has damage on the water written all over it. Yeah, lots of people are going to lose everything, months of recovery, but hey other people have snow pack totals to be excited about Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Could that little 50/50 low up around St. John be worth taking into consideration at all, or is it too puny to have any impact? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Seems like the CMC bites on making one of those eastern SLP's down south the primary low and then goes north and east from there where most other models are consolidating closer in to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisDash Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, moneypitmike said: Between the 3k and the CMC, the goal posts are set for GC: .5" - 15". Somewhere in that range. LOL, now you sound like some of the local stations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, moneypitmike said: Between the 3k and the CMC, the goal posts are set for GC: .5" - 15". Somewhere in that range. Sounds like a good blend. The 3k NAM/GGEM rule. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeonPeon Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, WintersComing said: Seems like the CMC bites on making one of those eastern SLP's down south the primary low and then goes north and east from there where most other models are consolidating closer in to the coast. Yeah, it doesn't look right. This thing is about to explode, and I don't buy that it won't be able to wrap that plume in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 HRDPS coming out now.....interesting to see what that does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Thats pretty bad that gfs kuchie cant up the numbers. That should be 12+ based on h7 fronto. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said: sorry ... i just meant that if there is a tropospheric folding phenomenon being dragged along wit that jet as it's presently (can be seen...) fisting into the northern Gulf on vapor loops ... that could indicate that a, this thing has more power associated than we may think, but also, ...that entrained stratospheric air into the back side could add some mechanics to total vorticity - which ..okay, that stuff is bit outre but were you around in Dec 2005? ... Yes of course. Craziest storm ever here (Lightning bolt Cloud > Ground behind my house). But I'm just saying your so smart and so humble. And I hope so. It's going to take some big rates to get the totals we want in here. Too fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 48 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: I actually liked the look and distribution of the 06z hi-res RGEM. Picks up on the fronto band as well as the deformation band. The red stripe is 40mm. Orange is 30-40mm so an so forth. I'd cut back on the western and northern edges. Scooter jack...we don't suprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 I almost think there should be types of blizzard ... perhaps just two, but there's a difference between the environmental impact, both observational while it is happening, and probably threat assessing before hand, between choking fall rates with winds gusting occasionally to 35 mph, when comparing to a sideways maelstrom of violent froth as though you were on top of Mt Washington. Hyperbole granted ... but, the flat expanses of SE Mass will have more unimpeded laminar type winds purporting massive quantities of heavy snow fall... reducing (most likely...) visibility into the don't go outside for any reason range, where as folks in ORH up to BED and over to CON in NH will be dealt blizzard conditions, that are covered in winter storm warnings with heavy blowing wordage. That's fine, but I propose blizzard scaling, ...? Even if there are only two. Like, Blizzard Watch, then Blizzard warning 1 or blizzard warning 2. But, to Chris' point earlier, the public doesn't "get it" much of the time and don't delineate the right way anyway... certainly don't know how to consume these watches and warnings, or advisories, judiciously in their objectively to begin with so ... perhaps not not. But sufficed it is to say, ORH to BED? I don't see how you can stack up 16" in what ... 6 hours, with winds gusting routinely to 40 mph and fail AMS' definition on the matter. I suppose in the grand scheme of things, and considering the snarky comment that airs of truth above ... Winter Storm Warning with pig loads of blowing and drifting means the same schit anyway but, it does seem there is a kind of "gray" area (pun intended..) between that type of open field guff impact, versus that gusty street lamp sintered dust you get in chop winds around downtowns or in the interior hilly terrain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Scooter jack...we don't suprise. lol geez dood, you jack off as well....wanna trade places? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Thats pretty bad that gfs kuchie cant up the numbers. That should be 12+ based in h7 fronto. Kuchera doesn't see anything like H7 fronto or use omega/lift...it just uses temps in the soundings to determine ratios...basically cold = higher ratios. The cobb method would prob spit out some big numbers though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 10 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Ahhh now the maps come out once they show what we want to see . Called it days ago. As soon as it showed a big hit the maps would come out. Thanks for all your help pulling this as far we as possible though, its much appreciated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: lol geez dood, you jack off as well....wanna trade places? I wasn't complaining? He's one of my favored spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, powderfreak said: Ahhh now the maps come out once they show what we want to see . Called it days ago. As soon as it showed a big hit the maps would come out. Thanks for all your help pulling this as far we as possible though, its much appreciated. Kinda unfair.....there has been plenty of monkey spankin going on with several people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 16 minutes ago, The Graupler said: Yeah, lots of people are going to lose everything, months of recovery, but hey other people have snow pack totals to be excited about Hoping this is one of His 5 max posts daily Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 5 minutes ago, TheSnowman said: Yes of course. Craziest storm ever here (Lightning bolt Cloud > Ground behind my house). But I'm just saying your so smart and so humble. And I hope so. It's going to take some big rates to get the totals we want in here. Too fast. heh ... stanks but, i'm an idiot. otherwise i'd still have Christine with me after all these years of forsaken spirituality - ...Buuut, that's what tobacco and alcohol are for .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rnaude241 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, WintersComing said: Kinda unfair.....there has been plenty of monkey spankin going on with several people. I love how that map gives parts of coastal Maine nada. Right..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 17 minutes ago, bristolri_wx said: There wasn't an arctic airmass in place before and after the storm in March like what we're going to be seeing Thursday and into the weekend. That arctic high to the north of us is a beast. Yeah, I'm not saying it's a perfect analog, and I'm definitely not suggesting this ends up over Long Island. I'm just saying that one had a lot of convection with it that pumped up heights more than expected and this should too. That may mean a gradual drift more west, at most to the benchmark given the progressive nature of the flow. Want the southern stream to continue trending stronger and the northern stream to push a little less. We'll see. It will be fascinating whatever happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 4 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Ahhh now the maps come out once they show what we want to see . Called it days ago. As soon as it showed a big hit the maps would come out. Thanks for all your help pulling this as far we as possible though, its much appreciated. heck of a winter this year! hope you are getting out there and enjoying, but man its been way too cold for me to get out much lol -40 windchills and snow, gonna be a fun morning friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Scooter jack...we don't suprise. Ray, me and Harvey seem to be correct what that particular model is showing. Eastern Mass jacks with a ribbon of ultimate jacks from the immediate north shore to Boston to Milford to Canton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 21 minutes ago, The Graupler said: Yeah, lots of people are going to lose everything, months of recovery, but hey other people have snow pack totals to be excited about Enjoy the weather, it's the only whether you've got! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I wasn't complaining? He's one of my favored spots. I gotchya...but he always is lol. take it to the bank and stash it in the vault. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Everyone always gets testy with one another after days of working on a way this is going to hit. Relax friends-in every system there are people rejoicing and others disappointed. We just don’t know who will be either just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: heh ... stanks but, i'm an idiot. otherwise i'd still have Christine with me after all these years of forsaken spirituality - ...Buuut, that's what tobacco and alcohol are for .... You can find someone better, dude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, WintersComing said: Kinda unfair.....there has been plenty of monkey spankin going on with several people. Lots of joking going on... can't take it too seriously I really like Tolland to ORH to Dryslot axis. That'd be my jack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, Greg said: Ray, me and Harvey seem to be correct what that particular model is showing. Eastern Mass jacks with a ribbon of ultimate jacks from the immediate north shore to Boston to Milford to Canton. Post his map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, weathafella said: Everyone always gets testy with one another after days of working on a way this is going to hit. Relax friends-in every system there are people rejoicing and others disappointed. We just don’t know who will be either just yet. Exactly....all need to sit back and enjoy the ride. It will be what it will be. Can't fight Mother Nature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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