CT Rain Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, CoastalWx said: That's how I see it. Convection again. You can see dual lows fighting. And that's probably what will happen in reality too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Don't really care about SLP placement; that H5 depiction at hr 15 looks fantastic. Difficult to find anything wrong with that; it almost requires an abhorrent level of criticism to do so.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, CoastalWx said: That's how I see it. Convection again. You can see dual lows fighting. The heaviest convection is near the coast but it wants to place the slp east of there instead of over it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, dryslot said: Nam a little more messy with the southern s/w, Does not know if it wants to focus the slp near the coast or the one to the east. Yea, I see that now on a later frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Struggling with which low dominates... and by 24hr seems to settle on further east low so would expect tick east vs. 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 It looks like its going to be east of the 06z run, But that run was so amped its probably the run that will mentioned that goes ape sh it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 5 hours ago, ncforecaster89 said: During my own short time (since 3/26/14) tracking NE coastals, it appears that we get these W trends with the NAM & GFS in this time frame on such intense systems. However, they generally verify more E/wd during now-casting. Am I wrong in this recollection? On a personal note, my experience was derived forecasting and tracking SE coastals. It's a different beast forecasting up here! You may not be wrong inside of a small sample set ... which you've already admitted/acknowledged ... granted. In the 25 years I've been privy to modeling, I don't see any pattern such as that behavior that lasts over years. It seems you get trends that give perhaps faux fixed biases like that. That said, there are 'tendencies' endemic to each tool - like the Euro tuck back SW of vorticity ... or the GFS unrelenting progressivity in the middle range with cyclones. ... so it's not impossible that there is some sort of standardized issue in the 48 hour frame. interesting.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Tick stronger this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 If we didn't have decent consensus around 0z Euro / 0z NAM / GEFS, I'd be much more nervous about this forecast, even for taint issues further up from the canal... that convection will be playing havoc with nowcasts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, wxsniss said: If we didn't have decent consensus around 0z Euro / 0z NAM / GEFS, I'd be much more nervous about this forecast, even for taint issues further up from the canal... that convection will be playing havoc with nowcasts Yeah, We don't know if that's right or not either, That is the only reason this is a little east as jumped to the convection offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Still a big, big hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Still a big, big hit. Yip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 3 hours ago, OceanStWx said: That's a pretty deep PV anomaly skirting the northern Gulf of Mexico. Some serious subsidence behind it, even at the highest level WV product. And the ozone products confirm there is a little stratospheric air in there. this is fascinating .. this is could be contributing to the total diabatic budget of this things thermodynamics in an insidious way. there's a lot of consternation if not vexation as to why/where this thing is getting Cat 3 pressures and in a lot of ways ...structure from, and it may in fact be particulars associated to the physics of entrainment ... perhaps even lesser known mechanics of incremental folding behavior working into this. For that matter... I'm an idiot - why haven't I looked at the 200 mb evolution. man thanks for reminding me - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
amarshall Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 3, 2018 Author Share Posted January 3, 2018 Wow, that's an enormous omega bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Its an absolute beast even though it ticked east, Wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 What a crushing............... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: this is fascinating .. this is could be contributing to the total diabatic budget of this things thermodynamics in an insidious way. there's a lot of consternation if not vexation as to why/where this thing is getting Cat 3 pressures and in a lot of ways ...structure from, and it may in fact be particulars associated to the physics of entrainment ... perhaps even lesser known mechanics of incremental folding behavior working into this. For that matter... I'm an idiot - why haven't I looked at the 200 mb evolution. man thanks for reminding me - I need a Harvard BA and an Oxford PHd just to READ your posts Tip........ and then you call yourself an idiot. You're The Man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Every map needs to taken way way up today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Every map needs to taken way way up today Your posts have gotten worse and worse. Hard to believe that was possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Ginxy's Death Band Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Let's lock that one in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Yeah 12z NAM solution is somewhere in between 0z and 6z... despite tick east, spreads the wealth well west of 0z. All with an unambiguous blizzard for eastern SNE Maybe something made multiple 6z models jump. 12z RGEM will be key to see if 6z RGEM was a blip or if the significant 6z west jump is real Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, dendrite said: Let's lock that one in. All around better run with that SLP track, It cut back qpf on the western areas, But expected with a couple tics east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Every map needs to taken way way up today I certainly think that western areas may need to get bumped a bit....not sure way up though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, WintersComing said: Ginxy's Death Band wow....really close by.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, moneypitmike said: wow....really close by.... That's H7 vorticity anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Speaking of ginxy, where is he? He usually is all over this with cool graphics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 5 minutes ago, CT Rain said: Your posts have gotten worse and worse. Hard to believe that was possible. Good luck with 2-4 in W CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 I think that funky evolutions lead to funky results and those dual convective lows would have me a little nervous if I was forecasting this one. I'd bet on a Euro/GFS blend right now because I think it sneaking a little east is a lot more likely than a NAM solution. But we'll see what happens today. I'd go with a big 6-12'' swath east of a HFD/CEF/ORE arc and then 8-14'' inside 128. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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