weathafella Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: RPM is decently east as well...that leaves me to toss the westward NAM solutions from 06z and the 3km 12z solution. The non-hydrostatic models led the westward charge in the past 24-36 hours, but now you have disagreement amongst them in the nearer term...the RGEM/RPM are east of the amped NAM solutions, so that is a red flag. Will-can you post RPM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 I'd chuck the NAM pretty far at this point, but that can be said in most situations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Rgem kind of keeps the goods inside of I-495. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: RPM is decently east as well...that leaves me to toss the westward NAM solutions from 06z and the 3km 12z solution. The non-hydrostatic models led the westward charge in the past 24-36 hours, but now you have disagreement amongst them in the nearer term...the RGEM/RPM are east of the amped NAM solutions, so that is a red flag. I agree its less likely...but I don't trust this system..the dynamics and power on display here is difficult for any model to harness...spoken from someone who wants nothing to do with a Berkshire bonanza. I agree, though..if modeling is correct, that outcome is pretty unlinlkely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Now the question becomes, How far east does this end up, It looks like the west trend is over for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Snow map from my blog yesterday afternoon. Haven't found reason to change it this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 3, 2018 Author Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, ORH_wxman said: RPM is decently east as well...that leaves me to toss the westward NAM solutions from 06z and the 3km 12z solution. The non-hydrostatic models led the westward charge in the past 24-36 hours, but now you have disagreement amongst them in the nearer term...the RGEM/RPM are east of the amped NAM solutions, so that is a red flag. You don't say.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 When is the RPM good? Yesterday it was junk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, weathafella said: Will-can you post RPM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said: You don't say.... weren't those the models that were screaming the last minute east trend three fateful years ago with the big Jan storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Thanks Will! We take. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Meh, it was fun while it lasted. NAM with the typical amped up weenie solution. Final call- west of river: 4-8” east of river: 8-12” ema: 12-16” Jack zone (395 in CT to 495 in MA northeast to coastal Maine) : 14-20” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said: Snow map from my blog yesterday afternoon. Haven't found reason to change it this morning. Tough to argue with that attm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 these convective flareups the models are generating during the formulation of the storm's earlier evolution deep in the south and off the SE U.S. coast are effecting structures and other attributes down stream. It seems like they're still some tendency to distract this thing from a more cohesive singular structure, whereby it's various attributes would be more agreed upon both in terms of continuity, and among the different models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
subdude Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 11 minutes ago, JC-CT said: actually it's a pretty big cut in qpf as well ugh, I get the feelz the rt2 corridor W of 495 is in for a letdown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Seems to my eyes to be negative tilt earlier than the NAM had modeled. Don't know what that means though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, WintersComing said: When is the RPM good? Yesterday it was junk. yup and today it's leading the charge...Lol...it's hilarious isn't it....everybody has their own take and bias. I'll take my 6-9 that ChrisRotary has...or my 3-6 that Ryan has and be happy. If this thing is all that Anomalous...it's going to do things that other systems haven't...Surprises should abound..time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: these convective flareups the models are generating during the formulation of the storm's earlier evolution deep in the south and off the SE U.S. coast are effecting structures and other attributes down stream. It seems like they're still still some tendency to distract this thing from a more cohesive singular structure, whereby it's various attributes would be more agreed upon both in terms of continuity, and among the different models. Do you have a forecast, John Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, WinterWolf said: yup and today it's leading the charge...Lol...it's hilarious isn't it....everybody has their own take and bias. I'll take my 6-9 that ChrisRotary has...or my 3-6 that Ryan has and be happy. If this thing is all that Anomalous...it's going to do things that other systems haven't...Surprises should abound..time will tell. I promise it is not going to do anything that no other system has done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, WinterWolf said: yup and today it's leading the charge...Lol...it's hilarious isn't it....everybody has their own take and bias. I'll take my 6-9 that ChrisRotary has...or my 3-6 that Ryan has and be happy. If this thing is all that Anomalous...it's going to do things that other systems haven't...Surprises should abound..time will tell. inside 36hr most of the short term models are more reliable, including the RPM.. but they all have their weaknesses in difference types of situations, this system will have surprises for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 7 minutes ago, WintersComing said: When is the RPM good? Yesterday it was junk. They told us yesterday it was bad and just another ensemble member Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisDash Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 8 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said: Snow map from my blog yesterday afternoon. Haven't found reason to change it this morning. Good, I'd rather be in 6-9" territory than 9-12". Although, wouldn't mind a slight shift to the east... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, JC-CT said: I promise it is not going to do anything that no other system has done. It could fart at 960mb and tick it west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 13 minutes ago, WxBlue said: The blend of 3km NAM and RGEM wouldn't be a bad forecast. Wouldn't that essentially be the 12K NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, subdude said: ugh, I get the feelz the rt2 corric.f.dor W of 495 is in for a letdown. I would agree with that for your locale ,should the globals move east. This thing is a bit of a crap shoot either way for western areas dependent on banding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, JC-CT said: I promise it is not going to do anything that no other system has done. Well we have peeps here saying that they don't trust it etc etc due to its explosive nature... and I meant in terms of being modeled correctly or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 3, 2018 Author Share Posted January 3, 2018 I'm going to lean on the globals still for a track. I have a feeling that this storm will track generally along the path of the 500mb low since it becomes vertically stack by the time its off of HAT. My gut says 50-75mi SE of the BM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, WinterWolf said: yup and today it's leading the charge...Lol...it's hilarious isn't it....everybody has their own take and bias. I'll take my 6-9 that ChrisRotary has...or my 3-6 that Ryan has and be happy. If this thing is all that Anomalous...it's going to do things that other systems haven't...Surprises should abound..time will tell. Exactly...if I get 3 inches so be it but my point being is that this is a very irregular storm with a whole bunch of things that are going to happen that the models just can't seem to get their arms around yet. Someone from Western border of CT and MA to the New England shores is gonna get wacked. It all depends upon where that deform band sets up IMO. Some people in this forum are very good at picking and choosing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said: I'm going to lean on the globals still for a track. I have a feeling that this storm will track generally along the path of the 500mb low since it becomes vertically stack by the time its off of HAT. My gut says 50-75mi SE of the BM. Agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: I'm going to lean on the globals still for a track. I have a feeling that this storm will track generally along the path of the 500mb low since it becomes vertically stack by the time its off of HAT. My gut says 50-75mi SE of the BM. Sound reasoning. Thoughts on totals? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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