Typhoon Tip Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 I would say "worry" but .. this thing is moving so fast regardless, it's total impact is going to be lower relative to bigger players of historical lore. That said, the troubling difference between the 00z and 06z NAM is not as easily dismissible as folks may think (or not...just sayn') It's not adjusting the track and so forth do to idiosyncrasies in latent heat handling ...or hydrostatic versus non-hydrostatic ..whatever. It's straight up more proficiently phasing with the N-stream, which means those differences are arising because it is anchored into whole-scale, albeit subtle differences in the entire synoptic envelope. I don't know what that means as far as deterministic/operational Met going forward, but, that's different than blaming it on the usual suspects with NAM idiosyncrasies at the various time leads. 12z's out now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 12z Nam looks better to me so far through hr33. More than anything though, I really like the way the southern stream shortwave is coiling... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 2 hours ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: This is a 940smb Winter storm lol! Who can I stay with? it's rare ... usually the deeper cyclones get that way right as they are being captured by a closing mid-level surface; for complex reasons this gives particular momentum thrust of UVV that causes surface pressures to accelerate downward for period of time - ...or not just a closing mid levels; any time there is sufficient difluence "pulling" mass balance from aloft, which can happen because of couplet jet structures too... So there are a few ways to force a UVV spike that ultimately leads to a period or deeper pressures... But in most cases, these system are not moving so fast. This cyclone is passing some 120 naut. miles per three -hourly intervals, and that equates to 40 or so per hour... which is an unusual translation speed for extra-tropical cyclones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Steering through on the NAM seemed to tick a little west again which seems would be better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 8 minutes ago, jbenedet said: 12z Nam looks better to me so far through hr33. More than anything though, I really like the way the southern stream shortwave is coiling... 11 mb weaker at 45z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Looks more tucked to me so far. Still has that little meso off to the east. Edit: actually relative to 06z it's a little weaker and a hair outside. Noise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 7H (low) closes nicely by 10pm (Wednesday) on nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Gonna be a big hit with the NAM I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 The PNA ridge is increasingly amplifying every run which in turn is allowing the whole longwave trough axis to slide west as our south stream shortwave digs to the N Bahamas... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Perhaps slightly inside 06z at hr 51. Nice hit underway. Seems juicier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Just now, jbenedet said: The PNA ridge is increasingly amplifying every run which in turn is allowing the whole longwave trough axis to slide west as our south stream shortwave digs to the N Bahamas... Continue that and add some negative tilt and we could be in business in a couple runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 3 minutes ago, WintersComing said: Gonna be a big hit with the NAM I think. Yes it is. It was initially a little right of the 06z run but it's making a pretty strong turn to the left late. The stronger southern stream may have been able to compensate for the weaker northern stream by pumping up heights a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowderBeard Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 1 minute ago, Hoth said: Perhaps slightly inside 06z at hr 51. Nice hit underway. Yes, and well NW of 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 2, 2018 Author Share Posted January 2, 2018 NAM is a beast. 850mb winds are 60-80kts wrapping into circulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yes it is. It was initially a little right of the 06z run but it's making a pretty strong turn to the left late. The stronger southern stream may have been able to compensate for the weaker northern stream by pumping up heights a bit. Take a look at the trend of the PNA ridge though. It continues to slide west. The whole longwave pattern is sliding west with it... The real intriguing thing about this is this change in track has little/nothing to do with mesoscale convective features... I really would think the globals follow suite; at least slightly here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBinStoughton Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Just now, PowderBeard said: Yes, and well NW of 0z. This thing better not rain on me after all this OTS grief Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Yeah, that's real nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Lordy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Epic crush job at 51-54h around BOS. But that gets some banding goodies pretty far west too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 My lord look at the 32km at hour 51 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Would imagine this would have some pretty sick fronto. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Trending towards blizzard for beantown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Epic crush job at 51-54h around BOS. But that gets some banding goodies pretty far west too. Yeah--even delivers to GC a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarverWX Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 1 minute ago, WintersComing said: Lordy! That looks sweet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 2, 2018 Author Share Posted January 2, 2018 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Epic crush job at 51-54h around BOS. But that gets some banding goodies pretty far west too. Yeah, there is some ML love on the NAM too. Huge frontogenesis for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 That’ll be widespread 10-16” if verifies with Lollis higher Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 I take with open arms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 I think KTOL to ORH would be smashed in that scenario. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Look at the vertical lift going on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 2, 2018 Author Share Posted January 2, 2018 Drops 12"+ over Bristol County and still going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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