HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Just now, DavisStraight said: I think the picture will become much clearer mid day tomorrow with the models. I know I'd feel good if I was in dryslot's location. LOL, I'd feel pretty good in your location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 7 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: The sampling has done absolutely squat for this threat, in a positive direction Doesn't always. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Do you collect the dropsondes from the Pacific? Apparently those are going for big $ on eBay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Do you collect the dropsondes from the Pacific? The water is warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 0z GFS Ens are similar to 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 14 minutes ago, sbos_wx said: 0z GFS Ens are similar to 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 2 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said: Very little spread now among the members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 23 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: LOL, I'd feel pretty good in your location. I'd change places with dryslot for this one though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Watching the Euro roll in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 1 minute ago, sbos_wx said: Watching the Euro roll in Hoping For PBP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Hr 48... Euro is 5mb deeper than comparable hour at 12z. Deepening faster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Just now, sbos_wx said: Hr 48... Euro is 5mb deeper than comparable hour at 12z. Deepening faster. Hr 54, it's definitely deeper, Already down to 984 vs 991 prior run. You might say *slightly* east of 12z, but it's not that big of a difference. Going to see how this turns as it comes north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Holy crap. hr 68 0z is down to *968*! 12z was 977 at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Track is similar. Much deeper, deepens significantly faster than previous run. All the way down to 949mb in the GOM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Thanks Jay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderblizzard Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Similar position but it seems like a bit more precip gets thrown back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Much earlier phase at 5h. NW jog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 QPF: 1" mark to Yarmouth-Dennis. 0.5" mark from New Bed-Taunton-Quincy 0.3" Nashua-Worcester-Providence Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Verbatim a blizzard imo at least at the coast. Wind speeds, blowing snow would support that. We might not see the big time totals, but it'll be nasty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 3 minutes ago, sbos_wx said: Much earlier phase at 5h. NW jog. qpf thrown further west on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Wish I could stay up for the ensembles but that's not going to happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Probably the only 200 people in New England who would want this to shift west will read this post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 1 minute ago, Roger Smith said: Probably the only 200 people in New England who would want this to shift west will read this post. Still doesnt do much in the snow department though tbh unless you are in eastern Maine oddly enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 EPS? Where does the Euro lie in the envelope of solutions? It’s west of GFS right? Tomorrow’s runs are it..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Some of these central pressures showing up in reliable time frames on good models are quite astounding. I think 949 mbs would be very close to an all-time record in NS or PEI, I know there was one reading of 942 mbs in Newfoundland in a winter storm, but still, this is barely 40N and getting to the typical central pressure of a cat-3 hurricane. Whatever the model produces by way of NWP guidance I would have to assume that hurricane force wind gusts would be widespread on coasts all around the Gulf of Maine and Bay of Fundy, and later through central NS, se NB and PEI, on this track, and any mixing to rain along the path will be brief. It would rotate precip quite violently and dry slot from the southern quadrant, so it might throw back 10-15" to the e MA shore and 15-20" sw Maine, quite possibly 20 to 40 inches central Maine into NB. Further west there's going to be complex interaction with the Ontario low so bands of 4-8" snow and pockets of 2-4" pretty much back to Syracuse NY. South shore of Lake Ontario could see lake effect blizzards also, ROC at first then SYR later. But I think the big impacts of the Euro solution verbatim would be damaging winds and storm surges for parts of MA, trending to blizzard impacts north of Boston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 13 minutes ago, yoda said: Still doesnt do much in the snow department though tbh unless you are in eastern Maine oddly enough I'd take the 6" and run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 12 minutes ago, ice1972 said: EPS? Where does the Euro lie in the envelope of solutions? It’s west of GFS right? Tomorrow’s runs are it..... Takes longer don't think it's out yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderblizzard Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 EPS look a little west based on the mean, not sure about individual members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 21 minutes ago, Thunderblizzard said: EPS look a little west based on the mean, not sure about individual members. I’ll take it....stay up for 6z NAM? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderblizzard Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 2 minutes ago, ice1972 said: I’ll take it....stay up for 6z NAM? Lol Got 'em... there are actually quite a few decent hits back our way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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