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WeatherFeen2000

White Christmas 2017

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2 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said:

gfs wasn’t terrible for coast...very nice for nwct and Hudson Valley 

F6E0CD26-CC7E-4895-A1AF-88A3B4B8D936.png

The 18z RGEM is mostly all rain until you get up into your area (Orange County). It has Rockland raining almost the whole event

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4 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The 18z RGEM is mostly all rain until you get up into your area (Orange County). It has Rockland raining almost the whole event

Peek 850 and our LP... temps rise as LP slips wayyyy into W NY... LP on Coast doesn’t take over till Cape Cod on RGEM, I can’t see that happening... my opinion is rockland will stay all snow... I think CAD will also be undermodeled as usual and some will be surprised how south the Rain line stays 

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Not sure what they say for your areas but I just checked and the weather channel says my area( NEW CITY ) gets mixing and about an inch total. Im not sure what they are looking at to come to this but I am leaning towards all snow,,,, but hey maybe I'm wrong. Curious to see what models spit out tonight and then its close to now casting and Santa !

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...last gasp..last chance..twitter guys(inc. earthlight) mentioning a gravity wave swinging thru on christmas

day..quick blast of ++S/gusty winds..lets hope.

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18 minutes ago, tim said:

...last gasp..last chance..twitter guys(inc. earthlight) mentioning a gravity wave swinging thru on christmas

day..quick blast of ++S/gusty winds..lets hope.

the 3km. NAM  has been signaling a burst of snow here for the 9-12Z time since Friday  We'll know soon enough if that comes to fruition but at least its something to keep an eye on.  That's our only chance to get the ground whitened on the coast, but I would think everyone knows that by now.

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

This is certainly one of the more intense model forecasts for a gravity wave type winter squall. There was one event a few years back  with wind gusts into the 60's out by Shinnecock Inlet. I was wondering if anyone can remember the date? 

I’m not sure if it was the event maybe 3 winters ago where parts of central Suffolk saw 4 inch per hour rates for about 20-30 minutes. It was around 7-9pm

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21 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I’m not sure if it was the event maybe 3 winters ago where parts of central Suffolk saw 4 inch per hour rates for about 20-30 minutes. It was around 7-9pm

That was the end of December 2014 I think? That's what sticks out in my mind at least, had a squall here with pure whiteout lasted about 15 mins.

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This storm was doomed from the beginning. As I’ve been saying all week, the temps will be very marginal at best, and the track will be one that favors New England over us. An inch or two, maybe 3 well inland and that’s about it.

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Just now, NJwx85 said:

This storm was doomed from the beginning. As I’ve been saying all week, the temps will be very marginal at best, and the track will be one that favors New England over us. An inch or two, maybe 3 well inland and that’s about it.

An inch or two is doomed? Jfc 

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3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

This storm was doomed from the beginning. As I’ve been saying all week, the temps will be very marginal at best, and the track will be one that favors New England over us. An inch or two, maybe 3 well inland and that’s about it.

Not here... nice 2-4 on Christmas FTW

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3 minutes ago, BxEngine said:

An inch or two is doomed? Jfc 

The coast won’t see even that much, and it’s a far cry from the 6”+ some were hyping during the week.

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4 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said:

Not here... nice 2-4 on Christmas FTW

I put your area in the maybe 3” category.

I supposed you could get up to 4” though. Big difference between your location and 95% of the forum.

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8 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

This storm was doomed from the beginning. As I’ve been saying all week, the temps will be very marginal at best, and the track will be one that favors New England over us. An inch or two, maybe 3 well inland and that’s about it.

the primary surviving all the way to Buffalo is lights out for NYC S and E.    Also, not reallly alot of QPF until you get well into NE.    A inch will be cool b/c it's xmas....

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16 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

the primary surviving all the way to Buffalo is lights out for NYC S and E.    Also, not reallly alot of QPF until you get well into NE.    A inch will be cool b/c it's xmas....

Agreed. This one is over. Not only has the QPF been cut back but you have a warm boundary layer to start with, a primary low going to Lake Ontario and a secondary coastal transfer not happening until Cape Cod’s latitude. I’m doubting even an inch for my area, I think most of this is rain. If there is some wet snow, ratios will be horrific

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2 hours ago, NJwx85 said:

The coast won’t see even that much, and it’s a far cry from the 6”+ some were hyping during the week.

Not that they'll admit it. Some were so confident we would at least get 1-3" from this so I went with them but they were wrong. 

It's a very minor bust but a bust regardless.

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4 hours ago, bluewave said:

The one that I remember was early in the morning. I believe the NWS may have issued a severe thunderstorm warning for it.

January 2011 had that. We had a sleet thunderstorm in LB with winds gusting to 60ish. By far the heaviest sleet I have ever seen

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