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WeatherFeen2000

White Christmas 2017

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49 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said:

euro took a big step towards the cold/weak solution

What's it looking like now for Christmas? There's been a lot of bickering and I just want to know what it's trending towards.

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Despite all the misinformation going around, the models are trending towards each other - the previously-amped ECMWF to the previously-flat GFS and vice versa.  As modeled today, some mood flakes are possible in the NYC metro Monday morning.  Accumulations would be difficult to achieve with the boundary layer still above freezing.  If better forcing develops earlier than modeled, perhaps up to an inch of wet snow is possible.  

The problem with all this is that the shortwave responsible is over a data-sparse region of the Alaska panhandle/NE Pac/Canada.  The uber-amped ECMWF from 12Z/20th is probably off the table, but there is still room to trend in either direction from today's modeling.  

ALWV.jpg.18b945f4018cd46202b0849c14b9e9ce.jpg

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19 minutes ago, purduewx80 said:

Despite all the misinformation going around, the models are trending towards each other - the previously-amped ECMWF to the previously-flat GFS and vice versa.  As modeled today, some mood flakes are possible in the NYC metro Monday morning.  Accumulations would be difficult to achieve with the boundary layer still above freezing.  If better forcing develops earlier than modeled, perhaps up to an inch of wet snow is possible.  

The problem with all this is that the shortwave responsible is over a data-sparse region of the Alaska panhandle/NE Pac/Canada.  The uber-amped ECMWF from 12Z/20th is probably off the table, but there is still room to trend in either direction from today's modeling.  

ALWV.jpg.18b945f4018cd46202b0849c14b9e9ce.jpg

Please post more often

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25 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said:

Rgem brings our wave through a tad slower, and the boundary is closer to coast, however it sets up a classic W to E precip field.. even Long Island snows, NEPA gets shafted 

The general zone that gets shafted in these setups usually lies between ABE and FRG.  It’s just a question of how wide the zone is.  Sometimes it’s 30 miles, sometimes it’s 60-70

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8 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Gfs and cmc trended west

Pretty remarkable how far they’ve moved m, and the differences at 500... all 3 of 00z... nam/GFS/GGEM... cake very strong and West.. not far from a good storm even to NYC

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