weatherwiz Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I have me at 5.5” I think you will do better than that. Working on my blog/forecast now and think I'm going to have a strip of 8-12'' across parts of CT. This band is going to pummel someone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: I think you will do better than that. Working on my blog/forecast now and think I'm going to have a strip of 8-12'' across parts of CT. This band is going to pummel someone I'll do my final tmw during Pats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: I think you will do better than that. Working on my blog/forecast now and think I'm going to have a strip of 8-12'' across parts of CT. This band is going to pummel someone Should be one max just west of me, and another near GC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Should be one max just west of me, and another near GC yeah I like that line of thinking. That max by GC too could be the most fun...I definitely can see some thundersnow in that band. Really steep lapse rates develop and good CSI saturated layer depth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 Pretty cut and dry up here if all things stay the same, 5-8", Coast and Coastal Plain, 8-12", Foothills, Mtns and Northern Maine, Track shifts 50-75 miles east, Move the higher numbers towards the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 Got a sinking feeling with that amped RGEM run, tonight's 0Z runs are huge. I want that primary to weaken and transfer off NJ not Cape Cod, right now I wouldn't make any snow predictions. A 4 hour delay and 50 miles west puts this into ratter territory for a whole lot of peeps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 11 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Got a sinking feeling with that amped RGEM run, tonight's 0Z runs are huge. I want that primary to weaken and transfer off NJ not Cape Cod, right now I wouldn't make any snow predictions. A 4 hour delay and 50 miles west puts this into ratter territory for a whole lot of peeps It’s been bad. Really bad. Save your horse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 RGEM was not good up here today, If i had all the ice it was showing the power would be out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 Off-topic , what's with the virus thingy that pops up using Windows or android ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 13 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Got a sinking feeling with that amped RGEM run, tonight's 0Z runs are huge. I want that primary to weaken and transfer off NJ not Cape Cod, right now I wouldn't make any snow predictions. A 4 hour delay and 50 miles west puts this into ratter territory for a whole lot of peeps I still don't get the Synoptics of why it's trending westward but I guess the confluence behind the departing system is much weaker than it was progged a few days ago. The fast more zonal flow I was sure would've ripped it east. I was wondering if this first system being a bit weaker and less of a big wound up cutter (like was shown 3 days ago with 50s to Montreal) plays a roll. It's almost been like the colder and further southeast the "Grinch" storm went, the more amped up the second one got for some reason. Still time for ticks either way. With Christmas snow, I don't think many are obsessed with jackpotting (maybe except MehMike ) but just want a couple/few inches for aesthetics. Hopefully it can tick colder for you guys as I think we'd still get snow out west regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 25 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Got a sinking feeling with that amped RGEM run, tonight's 0Z runs are huge. I want that primary to weaken and transfer off NJ not Cape Cod, right now I wouldn't make any snow predictions. A 4 hour delay and 50 miles west puts this into ratter territory for a whole lot of peeps That is in the back of my mind. Should still be advisory snows at least in my hood in any case, but a lot of sad Whos in Whoville should that scenario transpire. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 13 minutes ago, dryslot said: RGEM was not good up here today, If i had all the ice it was showing the power would be out. Yup. It has had issues several times this season. Still, should be looked at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 Just now, HoarfrostHubb said: Yup. It has had issues several times this season. Still, should be looked at. No doubt, Just weight it with the others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BRSno Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 Grinch lives on (for mby at least) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 Since Kevin accuses me of always being too low here is proof that is not true Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Since Kevin accuses me of always being too low here is proof that is not true Not sure how that forecast will do but nice map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Since Kevin accuses me of always being too low here is proof that is not true That’s good overall but I’d take 6-10 out of TOL county and change it 4-8” , and extend it down thru Waterbury . And no 6-10” NW CT. Just 4-8” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 12 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: That is in the back of my mind. Should still be advisory snows at least in my hood in any case, but a lot of sad Whos in Whoville should that scenario transpire. you are almost a lock for warning snows! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 Wizzy is couple drinks in, feeling saucey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 Just now, mreaves said: Not sure how that forecast will do but nice map. The hardest part is judging 1) where the heaviest band(s) develop and setup. It's a given that we will see them. From what I've looked at I'm fairly confident we do see banding into parts of CT 2) Where the cutoff is between the warmth and sufficient cold for snow. This will also play a big influence in the banding as well. I do think I could be a little high with the 3-6'' that far SE of Hartford though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: That’s good overall but I’d take 6-10 out of TOL county and change it 4-8” , and extend it down thru Waterbury . And no 6-10” NW CT. Just 4-8” I was debating on going 4-8'' but after thinking I was confident enough in 2-3'' per hour rates for a good couple hours under the bands and that drove me to go 6-10'' 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Wizzy is couple drinks in, feeling saucey. Thanks for reminding me I had two beers in the fridge (no I have not been drinking lol). Only planned on having these two I brought home from school last week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 4 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: I was debating on going 4-8'' but after thinking I was confident enough in 2-3'' per hour rates for a good couple hours under the bands and that drove me to go 6-10'' Thanks for reminding me I had two beers in the fridge (no I have not been drinking lol). Only planned on having these two I brought home from school last week 2 beers for you are scuba tanks............. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: That’s good overall but I’d take 6-10 out of TOL county and change it 4-8” , and extend it down thru Waterbury . And no 6-10” NW CT. Just 4-8” That's a reasonable post. I agree that on 4-8" being a max zone. I think there will be some dynamic banding but the whole thing is moving along. Maybe if ratios are good, and you get a fluff bomb someone pulls a 8-10" amount. But I think it's moving too fast for a dense 8"+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 Remember the storm we had a few weeks back...it was the one I totally screwed up and underforecasted to hell. That is a really good example of what excellent frontogenesis can do for you. I think we are looking at similar situation with regards to the frontogenesis but we're also going to have other factors on hand as well. I know the speed factor is different but when you have a 130+ knot 500mb MLJ streak rounding the base of a trough magical things happen with regards to mid-level dynamics and that can't be ignored. I don't think at least 2'' per hour rates are unreasonable for a 2-3 hour period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 4 minutes ago, powderfreak said: That's a reasonable post. I agree that on 4-8" being a max zone. I think there will be some dynamic banding but the whole thing is moving along. Maybe if ratios are good, and you get a fluff bomb someone pulls a 8-10" amount. But I think it's moving too fast for a dense 8"+. I think you will pound for awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 Not feeling this nam run, at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 29 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: you are almost a lock for warning snows! 6” is pretty likely. But models have been overdoing things a bit this season vs reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 In EMA, N&W of 495 looks solid for warning snows. Ray looks to be on the dividing line. I’d go 5-6” there right now. The MLs come close to torching inside 128 to BOS. BLs likely torch within a few miles of the water too. I could see Woburn snag 4-5” and Somerville struggle for 1-2”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 NAM is a nice rainer for about 75% of the population on SNE. ORH Hills and N. Berks look to cash in. Fooking primary in W NY is screwing the potential for this storm. Slants the MLs so the best dynamics are well west of the secondary. Also creates a nasty dryslot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 Just now, NorEastermass128 said: In EMA, N&W of 495 looks solid for warning snows. Ray looks to be on the dividing line. I’d go 5-6” there right now. The MLs come close to torching inside 128 to BOS. BLs likely torch within a few miles of the water too. I could see Woburn snag 4-5” and Somerville struggle for 1-2”. Sounds like worst case scenario here. Don't buy that yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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