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Christmas Day Miracle

USCAPEWEATHERAF

By USCAPEWEATHERAF,
in New England

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weathafella

weathafella

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

NAM is a nice rainer for about 75% of the population on SNE.  ORH Hills and N. Berks look to cash in.  Fooking primary in W NY is screwing the potential for this storm.  Slants the MLs so the best dynamics are well west of the secondary.  Also creates a nasty dryslot 

It’s worst case-hopefully not correct but given the trend it may be.

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dendrite

dendrite

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

NAM is a nice rainer for about 75% of the population on SNE.  ORH Hills and N. Berks look to cash in.  Fooking primary in W NY is screwing the potential for this storm.  Slants the MLs so the best dynamics are well west of the secondary.  Also creates a nasty dryslot 

A lot of caution flags for a lot of SNE.

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

Posted
Posted

Seems a little odd to me. It's not like the primary is super strong and in fact its pretty much the same strength as the secondary. Only when the secondary moves over the Cape do things really take off. There really could be too much emphasis by the NAM on the primary. Wish I had more knowledge of how transferring of energy between primaries and developing of secondaries worked. 

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted
29 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I think you will pound for awhile.

Yeah?  I was sort of wondering if there will be two axis of bigger snows...one just northwest of the rain/snow line and then another way inland to possibly even north of me.  For whatever reason, these types of events (where a primary low rides into upstate NY and then a coastal low takes over) are usually big for southern Quebec and the Montreal to Quebec City corridor.

I'm intrigued because historically and anecdotally these are often 3-6" events here while the St Lawrence Valley in Quebec gets 6-12".  My guess is it has to do with the mid-level low tracks but it'll be interesting to see if that happens as well in this system.   

Of course the actual snow amounts are ratio dependent...like is it the same as yesterday when 0.50" melted brought 8.5" of snow?  Or do we get 0.5" QPF with 4.8" of dense baking powder.

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dendrite

dendrite

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

Seems a little odd to me. It's not like the primary is super strong and in fact its pretty much the same strength as the secondary. Only when the secondary moves over the Cape do things really take off. There really could be too much emphasis by the NAM on the primary. Wish I had more knowledge of how transferring of energy between primaries and developing of secondaries worked. 

You guys need the secondary to start cranking as soon and fast as possible. By the time the mid level centers start redeveloping it's over GC and my head. I really think PF on over to tamarack will clean up in this. You guys in CT will be fighting warm mid levels and the dryslot.

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

Posted
Posted
Just now, dendrite said:

You guys need the secondary to start cranking as soon and fast as possible. By the time the mid level centers start redeveloping it's over GC and my head. I really think PF on over to tamarack will clean up in this. You guys in CT will be fighting warm mid levels and the dryslot.

ughhh...I seriously hope not. This would put me on a horrific trend of forecasting thus far this winter. But when you don't get to look at models in depth on a daily basis you miss out on trends and crap...oh well. 

What meteorological reasons would warrant towards the secondary developing much more quickly? What would you want to look for? Basically...is there any chance that (for example this run of the NAM) is not handling something well and just develops it later? Would factors be like jet structure or degree of ulvl divergence within the secondary?

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Baroclinic Zone

Baroclinic Zone

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Seems a little odd to me. It's not like the primary is super strong and in fact its pretty much the same strength as the secondary. Only when the secondary moves over the Cape do things really take off. There really could be too much emphasis by the NAM on the primary. Wish I had more knowledge of how transferring of energy between primaries and developing of secondaries worked. 

Wiz, I am not educated in any of this but i think of this way.  You have a "stacked" low W of us and it attempting to transfer its energy off to the coast east of it.  This will tilt the storm in a manner that messes with all the things that produce a solid coastal storm.  The longer/stronger the primary holds the more difficult it is more the secondary to establish itself as it's own low.  The lower and midlevels can warm easier.

This storm started looking like a hot mess for eastern areas about a day ago as it became evident the primary was not going away.

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RUNNAWAYICEBERG

RUNNAWAYICEBERG

Posted
Posted
Just now, Baroclinic Zone said:

Wiz, I am not educated in any of this but i think of this way.  You have a "stacked" low W of us and it attempting to transfer its energy off to the coast east of it.  This will tilt the storm in a manner that messes with all the things that produce a solid coastal storm.  The longer/stronger the primary holds the more difficult it is more the secondary to establish itself as it's own low.  The lower and midlevels can warm easier.

This storm started looking like a hot mess for eastern areas about a day ago as it became evident the primary was not going away.

Yup, and it’s gotten progressively worse for zones to your west. Primaries suck, they do nothing but warm the layers where it is almost always too much to overcome. I’ve seen it too many times here. 

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Baroclinic Zone

Baroclinic Zone

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, dendrite said:

You guys need the secondary to start cranking as soon and fast as possible. By the time the mid level centers start redeveloping it's over GC and my head. I really think PF on over to tamarack will clean up in this. You guys in CT will be fighting warm mid levels and the dryslot.

can't say it any simpler than this. lower and mid levels are "torched" for this and the snow growth zone will be well north and west of the developing secondary.

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Wiz, I am not educated in any of this but i think of this way.  You have a "stacked" low W of us and it attempting to transfer its energy off to the coast east of it.  This will tilt the storm in a manner that messes with all the things that produce a solid coastal storm.  The longer/stronger the primary holds the more difficult it is more the secondary to establish itself as it's own low.  The lower and midlevels can warm easier.

This storm started looking like a hot mess for eastern areas about a day ago as it became evident the primary was not going away.

that makes a quite a bit of sense...I see what you're saying.  the system is pretty much vertically stacked to the west of us (with the secondary trying to get going off near the coast). Typically systems are at their maturity when they are vertically stacked so in an essence it is much more difficult for the energy transfer process to occur

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CT Valley Snowman

CT Valley Snowman

Posted
Posted

It's not a pretty look on the Nam but if the trend stops here I believe we still cover the ground and have a white Christmas in Northern CT.  Maybe not the amounts people are looking for if the warmer/stronger primary/later transfer re-development trend ends up verifying but I don't believe all will be lost to NW of interstate 84.  The 3 Km nam did look a tad better and colder in this region than 12 km but still pretty lousy. I'm keeping expectations tempered, might not get what was originally thought but I would be pretty dissapointed with a shutout here. Time will tell. Keep hope alive.    

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dryslot

dryslot

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

:D  00z 12km and 3km basically cut snow totals in 1/2 across the board.  Not what you want to see 24hrs away from a storm.

 

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Everything has been trending worse here, cant deny it. 

That primary hanging on and west is troubling, If that's what does end up in the end happening.

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

Posted
Posted

At least down here while sure it may not be great it's really not all that far off from being decent. The push of warm air is only through a small layer and just need it to be a couple degrees colder and its likely snow rather than mix. We're so close to that "line" to where this could go in either direction. 

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