Hoth Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 I almost wonder if it's going for a sort of compromise of that double barrel look it had a few days ago. Note it pops a low off Maine at 162. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 these solutions that "dumb-bell" ...or elongate duel centers are clearly the models struggling with the internal kinematics of cyclogenesis, as they try to integrate where the instability is in relation to forcing. The q-g forcing is back west underneath the evolution of the mid and upper levels ... yet, there is so much (as discussed) huge baroclinic instability in an already velocity saturated environment ... the models are using that to "prematurely" develop the low there... Oceanwx mentioned the ensemble sensitivity product smearing things west ... that is a desperate plea by the consensus to watch the f out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: That was just an isentropic TROWAL. I suppose this is similar in some ways...but the GFS solution is unique. That would be a first to get up to 6" of snow here from a coastal low in Newfoundland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Wait till you guys see the UKIE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 11 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: Wait till you guys see the UKIE Do tell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 5 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: Wait till you guys see the UKIE Congrats Pfreak? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 We will end up getting the Ukie before the GGEM, Its been stuck at hr 30 for 20 mins or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 watch us get a series of runs over BUF now ...hahaha... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 30, 2017 Author Share Posted December 30, 2017 Details on uncle? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 probably well inside the benchmark...low is near PWM at 144h - https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?carte=1021&ech=72&nh=1&archive=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Link on the UKIE? The only place i usually get it is UQAM and thats still on 00Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 That sounds warm for coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 30, 2017 Author Share Posted December 30, 2017 Too hard to see that...and 24 hour panels don’t help much but I’ll take the word that it’s closer in by a big margin I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 That Ukie run is perfect here. A+ on the hook and landfall location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Congrats PF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 28 minutes ago, Hazey said: Huge precip field. Snow from upstate ny to well east of nfld. Hmm... Nemo-esque. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Nice s/w flow event at day 10. Wintery appeal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBinStoughton Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 2 minutes ago, dendrite said: Can we hope these models are playing tug of war (almost literally) with extreme solutions and the truth is somewhere in between or are we actually just screwed? And by we I mean me lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 12z Ukie 977 mb right over my head Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Another day, another set of solutions. Everything on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Not good for immediate coast but everyone else crushed. Gotta think that’s too far west though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Nemo-esque. They don't still do that stupid naming winter storms thing? Good grief. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Tropical tidbits goes from hr30 to hr138 but looks like it would be a good hit going by 138. 957mb just off the northern maine coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Just now, ineedsnow said: Tropical tidbits goes from hr30 to hr156 but looks like it would be a good hit going by 156. 957mb just off the northern maine coast I have 138hr panel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 1 minute ago, ineedsnow said: Tropical tidbits goes from hr30 to hr156 but looks like it would be a good hit going by 156. 957mb just off the northern maine coast You talking about the CMC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Just now, Wentzadelphia said: You talking about the CMC? 138, but yeah uber wrapped up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 18 minutes ago, purduewx80 said: probably well inside the benchmark...low is near PWM at 144h - https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?carte=1021&ech=72&nh=1&archive=0 That's the only place for lows. PWM is our benchmark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 1 minute ago, JC-CT said: 138, but yeah uber wrapped up Changed the hour.. for some reason it changed on me.. Bombs away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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