CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 The srn stream vort seems to be driving the bus here. Probably some members slinging the storn NNW, PF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 I like the expansive precip shield on the GFS. Sort of reminds me of Nemo in 2013. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Seems almost like we don’t need a close in track and we’d still get expensive snows well west into NY state Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCloser24 Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 NWS UPTON: Models have been wavering on signal for a potential significant coastal storm Wed-Thu, but run to run and model to model spread is to be expected this far out in dealing with a complicated northern and PAC energy stream. Due to the complexity of interaction of PAC/northern stream energies in the sensitivity region (with potential approaching wave packet) Along The BC/AK coast predictability is too low to say whether the favored major coastal storm scenarios of the previous couple of days or favored current offshore track is correct. Both scenarios are in play at this 5 to 6 day out juncture. With a strong signal for northern stream jet amplification down into the SE US, chance pops are warranted at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 So glad I purposefully tuned this one out a couple days ago until it got closer. Way too easy to get attached to day 7 solutions, positive or negative, when they have virtually zero chance of verifying. I am disappointed that I missed a scooter frosty melt though. And I see tip is back, that's good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 eps improved, i think much better at h5 with a neggy tilted trough, and 6z gfs is dead nuts with 0z euro. gefs keeps improving, much sharper with the trough. Still need a 100-200 mile correction at the surface, though, but thats doable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Pretty nuts on mid level panels the eye structure this exhibits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 26 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: eps improved, i think much better at h5 with a neggy tilted trough, and 6z gfs is dead nuts with 0z euro. gefs keeps improving, much sharper with the trough. Still need a 100-200 mile correction at the surface, though, but thats doable. 6z GEFS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 57 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: The srn stream vort seems to be driving the bus here. Probably some members slinging the storn NNW, PF. That makes sense. You guys are looking good and have quite the wiggle room westward. Still need it to turn the corner quick enough and sharp enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 This next threat has legs. Just getting caught up on overnight models. The 06z GEFS has a 24hr precip contour >0.75" over the Cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 41 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Seems almost like we don’t need a close in track and we’d still get expensive snows well west into NY state Expensive because you're buying back in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 1 minute ago, Hoth said: Expensive because you're buying back in? It’s worked for all the big ones. Hope it does the trick this time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 That Euro run was nuts. ~950mb low when it hits our latitude offshore. With a pressure that low, we would see a pretty expansive precip shield thrown back west. This will be fun to watch play out over the long weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: It’s worked for all the big ones. Hope it does the trick this time The KURO being pessimistic is one of the most important things in my opinion. Fingers crossed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said: That Euro run was nuts. ~950mb low when it hits our latitude offshore. With a pressure that low, we would see a pretty expansive precip shield thrown back west. This will be fun to watch play out over the long weekend. Wow, had not looked at the run yet. What a powder keg at H5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 That was an impressive Euro run when it rolled out last night, Lets keep this trending west, Should be fun watching this one evolve over the next few days, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 31 minutes ago, powderfreak said: That makes sense. You guys are looking good and have quite the wiggle room westward. Still need it to turn the corner quick enough and sharp enough. Maybe, but these also have been congrats PF too. I have a feeling this will come west significantly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBinStoughton Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Maybe, but these also have been congrats PF too. I have a feeling this will come west significantly. How west? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 1 minute ago, JBinStoughton said: How west? If I knew, I would be rich. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBinStoughton Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: If I knew, I would be rich. I just mean it would be ridiculous if we rain after a week of frigid cold to be follwed up immediately by more frigid cold. Don’t do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Just now, CoastalWx said: If I knew, I would be rich. LOL. One saving grace right now is this is so far east that I feel there is only so far west it can go before it gets swept up by the ULL swinging through. Perhaps as far as what we saw on Thursdays runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: If I knew, I would be rich. You are Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: You are Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 2 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: LOL. One saving grace right now is this is so far east that I feel there is only so far west it can go before it gets swept up by the ULL swinging through. Perhaps as far as what we saw on Thursdays runs. Yeah true. But, Srn vorts traversing the GOM...look out. Seen it before. Anyways I was not trying to imply rain...just saying western folks probably should be watching very close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Just now, CoastalWx said: Yeah true. But, Srn vorts traversing the GOM...look out. Seen it before. Anyways I was not trying to imply rain...just saying western folks probably should be watching very close. MPM will be telling us there is a dearth of QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Just now, Baroclinic Zone said: MPM will be telling us there is a dearth of QPF. LOL, anyways we watch. That euro intensity was eye opening. That literally was a James dream, except for no stall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 7 minutes ago, JBinStoughton said: I just mean it would be ridiculous if we rain after a week of frigid cold to be follwed up immediately by more frigid cold. Don’t do it. Embrace the 1980s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 I think many of us (only speaking for self) take this site for granted. Collectively it's a rare occurrence that a threat doesn't verify from pay-dirt to whiffs. The riches are found in every post. Back to my favorite storm threat. A huge Ocean tempest that backs-in. A surprise to many but the threat continues. Admittedly fun to watch unfold from afar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: LOL, anyways we watch. That euro intensity was eye opening. That literally was a James dream, except for no stall. Stall or no, you'd have to think it would be a big QPF producer given its origin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Just now, ROOSTA said: I think many of us (only speaking for self) take this site for granted. Collectively it's a rare occurrence that a threat doesn't verify from pay-dirt to whiffs. The riches are found in every post. Back to my favorite storm threat. A huge Ocean tempest that backs-in. A surprise to many but the threat continues. Admittedly fun to watch unfold from afar. ROOSTA- I saw something that Tampa area could receive snow late this week; it has cooled off down here considerably the last few days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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