Hoth Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Also a remarkable pressure gradient on the 6z GFS. A 940 something bomb out by NS and a 1040 high north of the Great Lakes. A tad windy perhaps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 The cluster analysis is definitely not showing any model camps yet. There are certainly clusters of ensemble members, but each cluster includes CMC, GEFS, and EPS members. So it's not a North America vs. Euro situation. The cluster we want (stronger western low and slower) is definitely the farthest west with the trof, stronger southern stream, and more Atlantic ridging. The western ridge doesn't seem to be a significant driver, because that cluster is in the middle of the pack regarding heights. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: The cluster analysis is definitely not showing any model camps yet. There are certainly clusters of ensemble members, but each cluster includes CMC, GEFS, and EPS members. So it's not a North America vs. Euro situation. The cluster we want (stronger western low and slower) is definitely the farthest west with the trof, stronger southern stream, and more Atlantic ridging. The western ridge doesn't seem to be a significant driver, because that cluster is in the middle of the pack regarding heights. so baby steps........? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 1 minute ago, 512high said: so baby steps........? More showing us what we need to be paying attention to. It is good that the majority of the ensemble variance is related to the low pressure (stronger vs weaker, slower vs. faster) instead of some other feature in the flow. So changes to the features I mentioned will drive changes in the low pressure. For instance, right now over 50% of the ensemble variance is in the strength of the low off New England. That's pretty high for day 5/6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Not selling this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 This is a nice look from GEFS. Stronger storms are slower and closer to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Ryan on vacay? Would love to hear him opine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 18 minutes ago, WxBlue said: This is a nice look from GEFS. Stronger storms are slower and closer to the coast. Dang. That looks fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 gfs thru 96 - Sourthern stream hanging back more, trough looks more positive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 5 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: gfs - Sourthern stream hanging back more, trough looks more positive. Despite that, look like streams are phasing more at 102 hours out. Will be an interesting run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Just now, WxBlue said: Despite that, look like streams are phasing more at 102 hours out. Will be an interesting run. Yeah that looks pretty volatile to my eyes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 A little less - tilted this one. Won't happen here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 I’d like to see the northern piece dive in more for the hand of God reach, but maybe it’s just the case of gfs being too strong with the northern stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Slightly less sharp trough = slightly east from 6z positon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 That said, strong divergence aloft and mid level frontogenesis from nrn stream should have a band of mdt to heavy precip it seems into SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Interesting western bulge in the isobars in a few frames. Still gets some snow in here despite being mainly at sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: That said, strong divergence aloft and mid level frontogenesis from nrn stream should have a band of mdt to heavy precip it seems into SNE. Very close to a big bomb Could be the typical GFS bias Lets see the other models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Definitely a wonky interaction. Would be some have and have nots there with subby zones evident. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Think we should just be glad GFS had the storm still there on back to back runs No doubt there will be the windshield wiper effect this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 LOL, a band of strong mid level fronto just creates a band of moderate to heavy snow. Not sure I've ever seen that from a storm hundreds of miles away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 2 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Very close to a big bomb Could be the typical GFS bias Lets see the other models It's a huge bomb as it is, just a few hundred miles too far away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Ukie is a hit based off the crappy french website Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: A little less - tilted this one. Won't happen here. LOL. If you're tossing what the GFS is selling, you've got issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 This is coming west low probally will end up in Maine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Huge precip field. Snow from upstate ny to well east of nfld. Hmm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said: LOL. If you're tossing what the GFS is selling, you've got issues. That would be a first ever solution for me on the GFS. Bizzare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 2 hours ago, jbenedet said: These sub 960 members off the SNE coast aren’t unrealitstic imo, given the airmass over the northeast is typical of areas 500 miles to the north. Usually it’s SE Canada that gets the nuke, but we are in SE Canada right now, if you will.... This is a great point! Not so much because we (or at least "I") am willing to advertise a cyclone capable of peeling the Earth's lithosphere right of the mantle like that... BUT, pragmatically to the science of Meteorology? The idea of these ridic cold air masses sitting idly by one of the greatest warm conveyors known to the planet for so long, without a consequence, is a pricey request. It is a circumstance so fraught with potential that it truly is understandable that an "option" or two in a perturbed model suite of plausible outcomes might actually ..oh, gee, pick up on that sort of thing. Anyway... for the general reader: Bomb or not, the fast flow is still a problem for "maximizing" impacts. If mega bomb moving along at ludicrous speed will be severe for a comparatively less amt of time and thus limit therein. There's probably a reason why super deep lows don't tend to stick around that often ... because they have to be drilled into a planetary wave response to derive their mechanical might. Another reason why years like 1978 (or any not named) are pretty fantastically rare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: That would be a first ever solution for me on the GFS. Bizzare. Kinda reminds me of Mar '13, not so much in terms of evolution, but in that it shows snow so so far from the low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Just now, Hoth said: Kinda reminds me of Mar '13, not so much in terms of evolution, but in that it shows snow so so far from the low. That was just an isentropic TROWAL. I suppose this is similar in some ways...but the GFS solution is unique. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 A 500+ mile precip field................ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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