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Winter model mehhem or mayhem nature will decide


weathafella

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13 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I know what you are talking about.  I actually thought it would be a worse run than 00z looking at the 500mb vorticity swinging further east with that southern shortwave...but caught just in time.

I look at midlevels more so when it comes to sensible weather. At any rate I would hit it as is

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2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I liked the 00z EURO better...it was closer to a larger event.

Sure, N stream creates a modest snow event east, but the s stream escapes further east and is more disjointed.

 

Yeah I had the same feeling.  The 500mb was better at 00z.  But then again we don't live at 500mb ;).

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2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah I had the same feeling.  The 500mb was better at 00z.  But then again we don't live at 500mb ;).

I'm just speaking of the trend.....couldn't care less about the sensible impact of a run that won't verify.

Then again, trend s stream west a bit again and maintain that n stream trend, and its feet back to the CT river.

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 The EPS from a few days ago showed that do North Or North West turn late in the storm. I think that's why this ultimately won't go out to see. The question is where is that hook back happen.  History, and perhaps climatology?, would indicate that this is going to come back further west. Hopefully not too much so we don't have a boxing day

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