RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Euro was also really close with the two finger backside penetration and curl back, at h5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Just now, Modfan said: ROOSTA- I saw something that Tampa area could receive snow late this week; it has cooled off down here considerably the last few days Gots to laugh at this...long story, short version. Planted banana's two years back, spent most of the monies on the dirt. Freezing only on a couple of mornings. (so far) They've grown to a height of 8 feet ready to bloom...if I get just one banana I'm going to stuff and frame it to the wall. Can't wait to get the tub up to 100F swim a lap or two and then jump in all awhile the flurries fly....LOL Neighbors are in parkas and I'm still swimming! LOL The threat has always been real, just hoping it continues to trend W'ward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 6 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Euro was also really close with the two finger penetration and curl back. All about the timing of the s/w's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cut Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 8 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Euro was also really close with the two finger backside penetration and curl back, at h5. What do you mean by this RUNNAWAY? Fellow CT. person - you are about 30 miles to my North/East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Just now, Baroclinic Zone said: All about the timing of the s/w's Which is too hard to forecast when they still haven’t ‘broken off’ from their respective lows in AK region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 CMC also had a nice bump back on the 00z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 2 minutes ago, cut said: What do you mean by this RUNNAWAY? Fellow CT. person - you are about 30 miles to my North/East. Sometimes if the southern piece of energy is out ahead a bit but the northern piece dives into the trough, it can yank the southern piece back and really tilt the trough...kinda like Tip roping in a girl whos trying to run away from him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 One GEFS member takes this down to 943mb and a couple take it to 945mb... That would be nuts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 More waffling to come on this until at least Monday, But the expansive precip field is impressive, Even a 200 mile offshore track gets snow pretty far back west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 4 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: One GEFS member takes this down to 943mb and a couple take it to 945mb... That would be nuts The potential is there. Euro control showed something like that yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 2 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: One GEFS member takes this down to 943mb and a couple take it to 945mb... That would be nuts These sub 960 members off the SNE coast aren’t unrealitstic imo, given the airmass over the northeast is typical of areas 500 miles to the north. Usually it’s SE Canada that gets the nuke, but we are in SE Canada right now, if you will.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 3 minutes ago, jbenedet said: These sub 960 members off the SNE coast aren’t unrealitstic imo, given the airmass over the northeast is typical of areas 500 miles to the north. Usually it’s SE Canada that gets the nuke, but we are in SE Canada right now, if you will.... That bath water compared to this air mass certainly can support bombogenesis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 23 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: All about the timing of the s/w's Yea unfortunately no -NAO. So the flow is racing. Doesn’t give much margin for error timing wise. Definitely want to favor Eastern sections given the cold in place and ++NAO. That said a robust shortwave passing near the Gulf frequently tends to overperform in terms of downstream UL height rises. Really want to see the Southern Shortwave ramp up early to get the timing to work out for a majority of us. If the southern wave stays weak, this is probably well ots. If it comes in hot, it’s probably just outside the BM... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 6 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: The potential is there. Euro control showed something like that yesterday. Just looked latest run is 945mb about 100 miles east of the cape... Wow!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 14 minutes ago, dryslot said: That bath water compared to this air mass certainly can support bombogenesis. Yea still 53 here http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=44066 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Doesn’t look too bad... long way out. If we are still in play Tuesday night, I’ll follow more closely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Doesn’t look too bad... long way out. If we are still in play Tuesday night, I’ll follow more closely We wait on pins and needles for your Tuesday night return. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 A -Nao would offer more consistent phase solutions and likely a slower system. We pray Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 3 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Doesn’t look too bad... long way out. If we are still in play Tuesday night, I’ll follow more closely Stay meh on this for now please, Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBinStoughton Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 2 minutes ago, dryslot said: Stay meh on this for now please, Thanks Yeah really. I’m sure the overexcitement ruined this one today. Can’t prove it but I just know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Agreed, days away....however, fun to follow on these cold days....we watch... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 6 minutes ago, dryslot said: Stay meh on this for now please, Thanks He and DIT checked out combo is like the old EE rule. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: He and DIT checked out combo is like the old EE rule. Yeah, Some play it so they would be right either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 1 hour ago, JBinStoughton said: I just mean it would be ridiculous if we rain after a week of frigid cold to be follwed up immediately by more frigid cold. Don’t do it. January 2014. For the 1st 15 days of that month, temps here ran 4.3F BN, average day was 23/0, we had 3.46" precip and only 2.1" snow (and no IP/ZR.) That's a nearly impossible trifecta. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 It looks to me as though the 00z guidance suite was improved for storm enthusiasts ... Did anyone notice ? heh.. Seriously, whatever is generated, it will be doing so amid an utter baroclinic surplus that will undoubtedly be aligned along a rough axis between approximately New Orleans to NF. It is probable in my mind that even for the Euro ... these models are tasked to hold that potential in the balance and 'wait' on mechanics to 'ignite' - ... metaphorically, it's just too temping.. I suspect what we were actually seeing modeled (since the big bomb run from two or so days back...) was based upon excessive numerical instabilities. Such a static, velocity rich mid level atmosphere blasting perpetually running over top these attenuating arctic air masses as they are periodically terminating around the axis of the Gulf Stream/cP mixing region of the marine environment over the west Atlantic... Good luck. An homage to that, shark kills have been noted do to temperature/flashing shock with the SST off the NE coast. Carcasses of otherwise healthy marine specimens are washing to shore... Healthy nurse sharks that did a mastodon seize and rolled up belly to the sky. Anyway, the governing mechanics from that run two clicks back might have gotten lost or significantly under-sampled ... and instead we were looking at ...computer enhanced fantasies ("War Games" rip) because they were left to their own devices handling all that volatility. I suggest the 00z run are tapping into more wave presentation in the atmosphere and that is why we are seeing/...well, identifying wave signatures and subsequent events with more coherence again. Unfortunately, that doesn't really offer much confidence either way; it's just an observation/suspicion over what's going on with that January 4 through 6 range of time. There is still time for nothing at all ...although I personally think that is becoming the less probability scenario, given to erstwhile arguments about mass-field balancing/teleconnector tapestries during that era. We are still seeing a PNA burgeon on the heals of an at least temporary collapse of the EPO/cold load into the Canadian shield. That's really a tele 101 relay one should look for, for significant events over mid latitudes of America. Something restorative in the large circulation is better than 50% for occurrence here, which is very very good for still D6+. Also, other logistics to consider as other's have noted is modeling trends, though, above talking points might help lend reasons why that trend is/will continue. The members of the overnight GEFs individually carrying signals shows overwhelmingly that the potential is there, we just need the models to really get consistent with identifying atmospheric features capable of doing anything at all...It really will not take much given that baroclinic saturation that's in place with attenuating arctic air masses tormenting the 70+ F g-string waters. A a cyclostrophic orgasm is but a flick away... Not to get "ahead" of my self... I got to be honest ... I am also equally impressed by what could be a historical cold intrusion on the back side of that circulation. I am sure other's have noted and all do recognition notwithstanding... -28 C possibly down as far as ORH is egregiously gelid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 I know its the nam but that h5 look at hr84 looks very condusive to a weenie solution. We saw this with March 17 where nam came in more nw than other guidance in its LR and it was discounted...but it ended up being right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 20 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I got to be honest ... I am also equally impressed by what could be a historical cold intrusion on the back side of that circulation. I am sure other's have noted and all do recognition notwithstanding... -28 C possibly down as far as ORH is egregiously gelid. Excellent use of the word "gelid." We would have also accepted hyperborean and hiemal. On an unrelated note, there were a number of remarkably deep ensemble members on the Euro. Lots of low 960s to 950s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Ensemble sensitivity tool suggesting that we may even start to tease out a signal as early as 00z tomorrow night. New Year's Eve furious refreshing of the model websites? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 The board servers will be put to the test the next few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WthrJunkyME Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 23 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: It looks to me as though the 00z guidance suite was improved for storm enthusiasts ... Did anyone notice ? heh.. Seriously, whatever is generated, it will be doing so amid an utter baroclinic surplus that will undoubtedly be aligned along a rough axis between approximately New Orleans to NF. It is probable in my mind that even for the Euro ... these models are tasked to hold that potential in the balance and 'wait' on mechanics to 'ignite' - ... metaphorically, it's just too temping.. I suspect what we were actually seeing modeled (since the big bomb run from two or so days back...) was based upon excessive numerical instabilities. Such a static, velocity rich mid level atmosphere blasting perpetually running over top these attenuating arctic air masses as they are periodically terminating around the axis of the Gulf Stream/cP mixing region of the marine environment over the west Atlantic... Good luck. An homage to that, shark kills have been noted do to temperature/flashing shock with the SST off the NE coast. Carcasses of otherwise healthy marine specimens are washing to shore... Healthy nurse sharks that did a mastodon seize and rolled up belly to the sky. Anyway, the governing mechanics from that run two clicks back might have gotten lost or significantly under-sampled ... and instead we were looking at ...computer enhanced fantasies ("War Games" rip) because they were left to their own devices handling all that volatility. I suggest the 00z run are tapping into more wave presentation in the atmosphere and that is why we are seeing/...well, identifying wave signatures and subsequent events with more coherence again. Unfortunately, that doesn't really offer much confidence either way; it's just an observation/suspicion over what's going on with that January 4 through 6 range of time. There is still time for nothing at all ...although I personally think that is becoming the less probability scenario, given to erstwhile arguments about mass-field balancing/teleconnector tapestries during that era. We are still seeing a PNA burgeon on the heals of an at least temporary collapse of the EPO/cold load into the Canadian shield. That's really a tele 101 relay one should look for, for significant events over mid latitudes of America. Something restorative in the large circulation is better than 50% for occurrence here, which is very very good for still D6+. Also, other logistics to consider as other's have noted is modeling trends, though, above talking points might help lend reasons why that trend is/will continue. The members of the overnight GEFs individually carrying signals shows overwhelmingly that the potential is there, we just need the models to really get consistent with identifying atmospheric features capable of doing anything at all...It really will not take much given that baroclinic saturation that's in place with attenuating arctic air masses tormenting the 70+ F g-string waters. A a cyclostrophic orgasm is but a flick away... Not to get "ahead" of my self... I got to be honest ... I am also equally impressed by what could be a historical cold intrusion on the back side of that circulation. I am sure other's have noted and all do recognition notwithstanding... -28 C possibly down as far as ORH is egregiously gelid. As a completely ignorant amateur in the science of weather, I could study this post for weeks and still have not a clue to what he just said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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