moneypitmike Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 1 hour ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Just had to. Shoot me now. 58 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I’m all in . 110% I'm shocked. Shocked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 If that occurred, that would make all the peeps saying that big dogs aren’t likely in this set up, look like they don’t know what they are talking about?????? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: If that occurred, that would make all the peeps saying that big dogs aren’t likely in this set up, look like they don’t know what they are talking about?????? Who said we can’t get a big storm? The argument has just been that it’ll be a progressive pattern. But jesus, it’s still a week away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 5 minutes ago, dendrite said: Who said we can’t get a big storm? The argument has just been that it’ll be a progressive pattern. But jesus, it’s still a week away. Yeah and it was not a big low. Almost like an inv trough look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 Looks like we are setting up nicely for some of the first meltdowns of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Looks like we are setting up nicely for some of the first meltdowns of the season. we bait Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 I know it’s probably unlikely that it happens, but it just would be ironic if Eastern areas got 12-18 inches, after all the talk about how large storms aren’t favored in this type of set up....progressive or not. We’ve all been doing quite well over the last few years with progressive fast moving systems, and this would be no different. A long way away, and not saying it happens at all, but it’s just funny how the model kind of found a way to give a nice big dump on a lot of the area... Ill take my 6-8 and run on that depiction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 I’m shoving my stack in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 Looks like we are setting up nicely for some of the first meltdowns of the season. I'll be ticked if we don't have some snow cover by Xmas Sent from my XT1254 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 47 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: BOX is playing conservative (wisely) at this point Friday onward... Potential coastal storm Friday into Saturday. Seemingly quick moving as an open wave, skirting S/E New England especially, rain/snow mix possible, dependence on timing passage, daytime or nocturnal. Model forecast guidance continues to waffle, including the preferred EC / UKmet, a low confidence forecast. Additional coastal storms are possible, however specifics are highly uncertain given perturbations in the flow that are poorly forecast so far out in time. Little to now confidence from Saturday onward Sipprell goes balls to wall on every other wx event all year.. calls every cold front sweeping.. and then decides to down play a near certainty. Don’t get it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 15 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: near certainty lolz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 Nothing has changed overnight to change my mind from seeing our first winter event mid week into next weekend, I think starting 0z tomorrow night it's time to start taking model runs more seriously for late week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 27 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: I know it’s probably unlikely that it happens, but it just would be ironic if Eastern areas got 12-18 inches, after all the talk about how large storms aren’t favored in this type of set up....progressive or not. We’ve all been doing quite well over the last few years with progressive fast moving systems, and this would be no different. A long way away, and not saying it happens at all, but it’s just funny how the model kind of found a way to give a nice big dump on a lot of the area... Ill take my 6-8 and run on that depiction. I'd still lean away from a big system (>12" widespread). Obviously they can still happen in this pattern if the ducks line up right but we have a tight gradient and no big blocks downstream. We have pseudo blocks from time to time but with a fast gradient like that I would typically want to see something more substantial to slow things down. That doesn't mean a system won't have isolated high amounts. Inverted troughs are notorious for hitting a narrow area very hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 It does appear that there could be an IVT as the H5 low moves to the NW of the region, Time will tell if and where that actually ends up next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 2 hours ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Just had to. Now I know winter is coming. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 There’s been a good trend of digging the trough further se. There’s a number of lobes that dive into the backside when the midweek cutter moves into hudson bay. I would imagine it’s pretty hard for models to figure out what those lobes do, when do they break off and dive and how far and do what with it. Winter threat is real though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 3 hours ago, CoastalWx said: I would say confidence is increasing for something late this week or weekend, but still a bit early too get invested. Yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leo2000 Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 I think the MJO will help out a great deal with strong coastal storm development around mid December into last December as it goes into snowier phases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 12z runs could do much to spur/dash enthusiasm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 Trough is more progressive this run for the fri southern sw, fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 10 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: 12z runs could do much to spur/dash enthusiasm. I'm hoping its east on the GFS, Would be a good place for it at this lead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 7 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Trough is more progressive this run for the fri southern sw, fwiw. That should keep it further east this run, No one wants a hr 120 jack, Hanging back a lot of moisture so looks to be going for the IVT again this run as H5 low tracks nnw of the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rimetree Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 Maybe too early for run-to-run changes to cause too much enthusiasm or dismay. See where things stand on Wednesday-Thursday. But looks like some good times in December for a change...will be happy with something on the ground by 12/25. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 Just waking up now (being 22 FTW) and got to say that 6z run of GFS is incredible to me. Even 12z GFS is off to a decent start to get plenty of snowless folks on the board. Despite being weaker and further east (so far), still a nice trend toward more snowy pattern comparing to couple days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 Same thing year after year, those saying big storms can't happen then they do, those saying no qpf then they get 1 plus, those saying rain then they get smoked , those claiming every threat is a blizzard then they smoke cirrus. Best is those who claim x,y,z and then post well I have not looked at anything. Fact is any scenario is possible in ANY 5 to 10 day pattern. But hey let's do this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 7 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Same thing year after year, those saying big storms can't happen then they do, those saying no qpf then they get 1 plus, those saying rain then they get smoked , those claiming every threat is a blizzard then they smoke cirrus. Best is those who claim x,y,z and then post well I have not looked at anything. Fact is any scenario is possible in ANY 5 to 10 day pattern. But hey let's do this Who said a big storm can't happen? I didn't see any absolutes. Steve, just because I haven't looked at anything doesn't mean I can't read. The flow is fast...blockbuster events are not favored. Sure, it can still happen.....and I actually started looking last night, anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 18 minutes ago, WxBlue said: Just waking up now (being 22 FTW) and got to say that 6z run of GFS is incredible to me. Even 12z GFS is off to a decent start to get plenty of snowless folks on the board. Despite being weaker and further east (so far), still a nice trend toward more snowy pattern comparing to couple days ago. I'm cheering you on this year. It's gotta be wild growing up in the SE and then getting thrown into New England. May the coastal front be ever in your favor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 1 minute ago, dendrite said: I'm cheering you on this year. It's gotta be wild growing up in the SE and then getting thrown into New England. May the coastal front be ever in your favor. Wait until he gets his first taste of +SN 10 miles to his NW while he is +RN and 33°F..................... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 Just now, dendrite said: I'm cheering you on this year. It's gotta be wild growing up in the SE and then getting thrown into New England. May the coastal front be ever in your favor. Yea I would like to see a true blizzard for him, a 50 mph super Windex super squall, Arctic wolves night with high winds and burst of squalls then a 20+ below night to get a great experience. Welcome Blue may your balls not be .lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 Just now, dryslot said: Wait until he gets his first taste of +SN 10 miles to his NW while he is +RN and 33°F..................... Such is life in the big city but when it's not and others are smoking cirrus payback is a mofo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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