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stormtracker

Major Hurricane Irma- STORM MODE

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5 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Yeah, I would agree with that.   Both models picked up on the wide turn, but the Euro was better.  Amazing how much better the Euro is than the hurricane models

The Euro wasn't without its own issues too though, as has been pointed out already. Even just 24 hours out, it was way too far west with Irma's track once it got to Florida. Overall it performed the best, but that was a crucial mistake that made a big difference for highly-populated areas.

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Sounds like there was some really bad damage in Everglades City and towns just southwest of Marco Island. 

http://www.naplesnews.com/story/weather/hurricanes/2017/09/10/everglades-city-councilman-reports-hurricane-irma-left-a-lot-damage-down-there/652048001/

Collier County has serious problems with its water system, cell phone towers, and 95% of the residents are without power. 

Before everyone sounds the all clear, let's wait for damage assessments in the hardest hit areas. Word is areas of Marco and Naples are still flooded. 

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Sounds like there was some really bad damage in Everglades City and towns just southwest of Marco Island. 

http://www.naplesnews.com/story/weather/hurricanes/2017/09/10/everglades-city-councilman-reports-hurricane-irma-left-a-lot-damage-down-there/652048001/

Collier County has serious problems with its water system, cell phone towers, and 95% of the residents are without power. 

Before everyone sounds the all clear, let's wait for damage assessments in the hardest hit areas. Word is areas of Marco and Naples are still flooded. 

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Just now, psv88 said:

Sounds like there was some really bad damage in Everglades City and towns just southwest of Marco Island. 

http://www.naplesnews.com/story/weather/hurricanes/2017/09/10/everglades-city-councilman-reports-hurricane-irma-left-a-lot-damage-down-there/652048001/

Collier County has serious problems with its water system, cell phone towers, and 95% of the residents are without power. 

Before everyone sounds the all clear, let's wait for damage assessments in the hardest hit areas. Word is areas of Marco and Naples are still flooded. 

USGS map of the river/canal/creek system in FL and quite a few rivers/creeks are at or above flood stage - particularly around Tampa - https://waterwatch.usgs.gov/index.php?id=real&sid=w__map&r=fl

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Record flooding in Jacksonville.

https://www.news4jax.com/weather/hurricane-irma/the-latest-possible-tornado-rips-through-st-augustine

Jacksonville International Airport gusted to 86. 

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=JAX&product=PNS&format=CI&version=2&glossary=1

The extent of the hurricane force winds is absurd. 

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2 hours ago, zipperbaum said:

3 hours ago the Bay was empty.  Right now my dock is about to go under water and the bay is still rising.  Tampa Bay is NOT out of the woods yet if you live on or near the water.

I'm 100 feet back from Bayshore.  I saw a general "the surge is expected later", without any specifics or more precise timing.  I'm assuming this means is it will continue to funnel in through high tide later today.  The relative east shift likely mitigated surge from above Naples and north, but there really needs to be a deep dive on this when the time is right to assess what happened, and how to adjust forecasting and communications in the future.   The media was going wild with dire warnings of a tsunami-like surge of 10 feet rushing in.

its hard to describe the contrast in feelings from 24 hours ago to now.  Waking up yesterday and being relatively sure I and most of my neighbors would be homeless, to tracking landfall and the eastern shift, and realizing today that Tampa specifically dodged a major bullet.  It's only partial relief because of the massive destruction Irma caused from the islands up through Florida and the southeast, and because of today being 9/11, but nonetheless it's an incredible sense of relief.

Edit - for Tampa specifically, seeing up to 3 feet of onshore flow related surge on top of high tide expected "later"today, plus river flooding from rainfall.

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So the huge surge numbers never materialized....is that correct?  I mean they were calling for 10-15 foot surge coming into Naples area....did that happen??  Im not thinking so.  I was thinking in my own mind that those numbers were way over what would really happen, as I saw Irma taking the more inland route over the Peninsula.  

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15 hours ago, jacindc said:

Would certainly like a bit more complete of a survey of the state of things in Miami, FLL, Hollywood, West Palm, the Space Coast, the Keys, Everglades City, Marco Island, and Naples and its eastern environs before I judge Irma's performance. (and all the points north that are only starting to get hit)

I was watching Miami ABC and a reporter was in a completely dark neighborhood in Hollywood with at least 2 feet of water in the street. We just have little idea yet of the scope of things away from the CNN/MSNBC/TWC/Fox cameras and selected social media offerings.

 

Ergo:

1 hour ago, psv88 said:

Sounds like there was some really bad damage in Everglades City and towns just southwest of Marco Island. 

http://www.naplesnews.com/story/weather/hurricanes/2017/09/10/everglades-city-councilman-reports-hurricane-irma-left-a-lot-damage-down-there/652048001/

Collier County has serious problems with its water system, cell phone towers, and 95% of the residents are without power. 

Before everyone sounds the all clear, let's wait for damage assessments in the hardest hit areas. Word is areas of Marco and Naples are still flooded. 

 

1 hour ago, psv88 said:

Severe damage at the Naples airport, roof flew of fire station at the airport, and it lost some hangars. Sounds representative of the wind gusts recorded. 

http://www.naplesnews.com/story/weather/hurricanes/2017/09/10/hurricane-irma-reports-roof-flew-off-fire-station-naples-airport/651809001/

 

50 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

 

46 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Record flooding in Jacksonville.

https://www.news4jax.com/weather/hurricane-irma/the-latest-possible-tornado-rips-through-st-augustine

Jacksonville International Airport gusted to 86. 

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=JAX&product=PNS&format=CI&version=2&glossary=1

The extent of the hurricane force winds is absurd. 

 

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1 hour ago, WinterWolf said:

So the huge surge numbers never materialized....is that correct?  I mean they were calling for 10-15 foot surge coming into Naples area....did that happen??  Im not thinking so.  I was thinking in my own mind that those numbers were way over what would really happen, as I saw Irma taking the more inland route over the Peninsula.  

Naples would have had worse surge if the eye had passed to its west instead of east.  I'm guessing the unpopulated Everglades got some good surge, though, but the wetlands also do a pretty good job of mitigating surge.

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My father finally got word about his house in eastern Naples. Was built in 2005 in a new gated community, solid concrete walls and has roof tiles. Neighbors report he lost all of his trees, and part of the tile roof was stripped away. Sounds like it was really bad.

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1 hour ago, WinterWolf said:

So the huge surge numbers never materialized....is that correct?  I mean they were calling for 10-15 foot surge coming into Naples area....did that happen??  Im not thinking so.  I was thinking in my own mind that those numbers were way over what would really happen, as I saw Irma taking the more inland route over the Peninsula.  

And you posted you were worried about the panhandle early sunday AM.    How thinking's/feelings change even less than 6 hrs in of landfall

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28 minutes ago, UMB WX said:

And you posted you were worried about the panhandle early sunday AM.    How thinking's/feelings change even less than 6 hrs in of landfall

Yes, cuz things seemed to be trending west at that point, and then it made landfall and started taking a more inland route than thought just 6 hours earlier.   Just goes to show that even that close in there are changes that change the outcome.   My point was only that as this was inland, the surge numbers were still in place...and I was wondering if they ever verified???

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44 minutes ago, psv88 said:

My father finally got word about his house in eastern Naples. Was built in 2005 in a new gated community, solid concrete walls and has roof tiles. Neighbors report he lost all of his trees, and part of the tile roof was stripped away. Sounds like it was really bad.

That sucks, hopefully the insurance and repair process is relatively quick and painless.  Seems like Key West, Marco and Naples all had real "major" hurricane effects. 

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23 minutes ago, bobbutts said:

That sucks, hopefully the insurance and repair process is relatively quick and painless.  Seems like Key West, Marco and Naples all had real "major" hurricane effects. 

Yea, supposedly his town looks like a war zone and the community residents havent been able to leave because of all the debris in the roads. They actually told my dad not to come for a while, as there are also issues with the water system and there of course is no power. All the stores are supposedly closed and the roads in the general vicinity are completely impassable. 

Hopefully the roof didnt leak as he just had it fixed. 

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