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Major Hurricane Irma- STORM MODE

stormtracker

By stormtracker,
in Tropical Headquarters

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forecasterjack

forecasterjack

Posted
Posted
Just now, Hurricane Agnes said:

I've been watching loops of the IR and it's as if it wants to go back out into the Atlantic. Final frame as of a few minutes ago-

 

irma-545am-ir-09112017.PNG

yeah I kinda noticed that too. Perhaps as its undergoing ET, it's "feeling" the effects of that big ET low in the North Atlantic a bit more? This satellite looks almost exactly like the satellite in the WPAC a week ago when Sanvu ET'd and helped a big ET low bomb out. Not every day you get to watch a RWT develop over the North Atlantic!

 

us_sat-en-087-0_2017_09_11_09_15_15825_487.png

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Hurricane Agnes

Hurricane Agnes

Posted
Posted
16 minutes ago, thunderwolf said:

By comparing the radar to satellite, it looks like the mid-level circulation has gone a different direction (NNE) than the low level circulation (NNW).

I highlighted 2 areas that seem to be moving separately (the 1st circle appears to be the current position of Irma's EW & the 2nd is something else trying to move into the Atlantic) -

 

irma-ir-09112017-markup.jpg

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dan11295

dan11295

Posted
Posted

Just checked the power outages and more that 60% of the state of Florida has no power. Also record flooding occurring along St. John's River in Jacksonville from combination rain/surge. Sounds like Naples on north lucked out with regards to the surge due to the storm moving inland faster.

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allgame830

allgame830

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, dan11295 said:

Just checked the power outages and more that 60% of the state of Florida has no power. Also record flooding occurring along St. John's River in Jacksonville from combination rain/surge. Sounds like Naples on north lucked out with regards to the surge due to the storm moving inland faster.

Thanks for this information I have family in St Augustine... how far in relation to the river is the city itself?

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allgame830

allgame830

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, dan11295 said:

Just checked the power outages and more that 60% of the state of Florida has no power. Also record flooding occurring along St. John's River in Jacksonville from combination rain/surge. Sounds like Naples on north lucked out with regards to the surge due to the storm moving inland faster.

Yea the power outage map seems to be well depicted here...

https://poweroutage.us/Area/State/Florida

all counties except for the panhandle have 30% or more customers without power...

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Scott Philips

Scott Philips

Posted
Posted

Well little Monday morning quarterbacking. This was an epic forecasting fail for most models, most models missed the Cuba coast hugging as long as it did. When it came to Florida, a D-. Missed the track, intensity, storm surge. Still have lots to do when it comes to forecasting and placing credence in computer models. Most things were predicted wrong the last 36 hours


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Scott Philips said:

Well little Monday morning quarterbacking. This was an epic forecasting fail for most models, most models missed the Cuba coats hugging as long as it did. When it came to Florida, a D-. Missed the track, intensity, storm surge. Still have lots to do when it comes to forecasting and placing credence in computer models. Most things were predicted wrong the last 36 hours


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I think the ECMWF might have something to say about that.

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RutgersWx92

RutgersWx92

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

I think the ECMWF might have something to say about that.

The ECMWF struggled also. It was right about more Cuba interaction, but the 00z run yesterday had the center of Irma tracking just west of Tampa Bay, which was obviously way too far west and a pretty bad forecast for just 24 hours out.

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bluewave

bluewave

Posted
Posted
Just now, RutgersWx92 said:

The ECMWF struggled also. It was right about more Cuba interaction, but the 00z run yesterday had the center of Irma tracking just west of Tampa Bay, which was obviously way too far west and a pretty bad forecast for just 24 hours out.

Despite that, The Euro still was the best track forecast out there for most of the duration of the storm from west of the Cape Verde's. It also never showed the deepening to the 880's like the GFS had approaching Florida.

mae.png.b901728f550eb348c241c568791a7ac9.png

 

 

 

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eduggs

eduggs

Posted
Posted
20 minutes ago, Scott Philips said:

Well little Monday morning quarterbacking. This was an epic forecasting fail for most models, most models missed the Cuba coast hugging as long as it did. When it came to Florida, a D-. Missed the track, intensity, storm surge. Still have lots to do when it comes to forecasting and placing credence in computer models. Most things were predicted wrong the last 36 hours


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Nope.  Pretty good jobs by the models.  Bad job by the posters, particularly the amateurs, as usual.  The models picked out the general area for landfall days in advance.  The mean model error was relatively low throughout Irma's lifetime.  Modeling really has come a long way.  As usual, this place is littered with wishcasting, overconfidence, and misunderstanding of ensemble spread and uncertainty.  Model interpretation is sorely lacking.  Most people here are pretty clueless.

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PWMan

PWMan

Posted
Posted

Apologies if this has been addressed elsewhere, but what happened to the catastrophic 10-15' Naples storm surge that everyone expected as Irma approached? I saw a local news blurb quoting the mayor as saying that "the back end of the storm weakened" after making landfall, but that doesn't sound right. Was it the angle of approach? 

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, PWMan said:

Apologies if this has been addressed elsewhere, but what happened to the catastrophic 10-15' Naples storm surge that everyone expected as Irma approached? I saw a local news blurb quoting the mayor as saying that "the back end of the storm weakened" after making landfall, but that doesn't sound right. Was it the angle of approach? 

Part of it is misrepresentation of what that 10-15' surge was. The NHC issues the 10% exceedence level, which is to say 9 times out of 10 the surge will be less than that value. It's what the emergency management community prepares for, but the public doesn't always think along those lines.

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OSUmetstud

OSUmetstud

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

Part of it is misrepresentation of what that 10-15' surge was. The NHC issues the 10% exceedence level, which is to say 9 times out of 10 the surge will be less than that value. It's what the emergency management community prepares for, but the public doesn't always think along those lines.

Wouldnt those values been reached south of naples, right of the landfall point?  

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TPAwx

TPAwx

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, PWMan said:

Apologies if this has been addressed elsewhere, but what happened to the catastrophic 10-15' Naples storm surge that everyone expected as Irma approached? I saw a local news blurb quoting the mayor as saying that "the back end of the storm weakened" after making landfall, but that doesn't sound right. Was it the angle of approach? 

Same question in general about the surge forecasts vs verification, from Naples north.  Trying to get info on Tampa this morning and it appears there was *no* surge.  In this case I and am sure millions of Floridians are OK with the surges not occurring to the level of forecast, but will be important to analyze everything related to the event and communications since surge is almost always the most life threatening element of a hurricane.

https://mobile.twitter.com/growingwisdom/status/907187707411156993

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Hurricane Agnes

Hurricane Agnes

Posted
Posted

8 am update summary - Irma is now a TS. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT1+shtml/111156.shtml? 

ZCZC MIATCPAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Irma Intermediate Advisory Number 49A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112017
800 AM EDT Mon Sep 11 2017

...IRMA WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM BUT STILL PRODUCING SOME WIND
GUSTS TO NEAR HURRICANE FORCE...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.5N 82.9W
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM NNE OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM NNW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.64 INCHES

 

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PWMan

PWMan

Posted
Posted
14 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Part of it is misrepresentation of what that 10-15' surge was. The NHC issues the 10% exceedence level, which is to say 9 times out of 10 the surge will be less than that value. It's what the emergency management community prepares for, but the public doesn't always think along those lines.

Thanks. Certainly the overwhelming public message, from the mayor and on-air mets, was that there would literally be 10-15' of water rushing over the dunes and inundating downtown. I'm sure everyone there is relieved - as am I as someone who's spent time there. It would be helpful for folks to understand some of the nuances involved so they don't discount future warnings.

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jersey1988

jersey1988

Posted
Posted

We have a house in Marco Island. I just want to post and say THANK YOU to all of those who have been contributing to these Irma threads over the past 7- 10 days. We have been lurking and following all of the up to date contributions throughout each day. Marco took a direct hit from Irma. Unfortunately; we do not know the extent of property damage, flooding, etc at this time. They are not allowing anyone onto the island until likely Wednesday. Officials needs to inspect all of the bridges and take care of the down power lines and road blocks caused by downed trees. If you are on the island and choose to leave; you will not be allowed back until further notice. There was significant flooding around San Marco where there are a lot of businesses but it is unclear on damages sustained by most of the residential areas. Again, thank you for your updates

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jbenedet

jbenedet

Posted
Posted

I think more of the model error/forecast error would have been forgettable had the recurve not coincided with the close proximity of Cuba and especially Florida.

The exact timing of that recurve was absolutely critical to impacts in Florida. Models rarely have a good handle on trough interactions such as what happened with Irma---most of us know this all too well. Wisdom says to wait until the recurve manifests before increasing confidence. But the lead time for that interaction was less than 48 hrs from significant impacts in the keys and Fla. So you have everyone asking about preparedness/evacuations/LF location BEFORE model accuracy greatly increased. Personally I was fairly confident 5+ days out Irma would make a close pass/LF in south Florida. It was beyond that where the forecast became muddied for reasons already stated above. But I too felt the pressure to make a confident call on the details when I fully knew it could not be done until the recurve commenced.

In a perfect forecasting world a very powerful hurricane recurves long before (72 hrs+) it approaches a major populated area....When another Irma situation inevitably arises, the general population will again be asking for a much higher degree of confidence than we can realistically provide at short lead times. Next time we must do a better job of pressing back. Time isn't the only variable that affects model chaos--we know this--but we need to do a better job making sure everyone else does too...

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