Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

Major Hurricane Irma- STORM MODE


stormtracker

Recommended Posts

Irma 5 pm update -

ZCZC MIATCPAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Irma Advisory Number  51
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112017
500 PM EDT Mon Sep 11 2017

...IRMA CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WEAKEN WHILE MOVING OVER SOUTHWESTERN
GEORGIA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.5N 84.0W
ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM E OF ALBANY GEORGIA
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM S OF ATLANTA GEORGIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES

irma-09112017-5pm-152552_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 2.9k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

I was trying to load Dr. Hart's phase space diagram site to see just how tropical Irma still is, and after a minute of waiting for it to load realized that it's at FSU and who knows wtf the data and power situation is.  Oops.

I've seen more symmetric storms called extratropical before.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Forecast post-mortem by the Capital Weather Gang. Pretty sure commentary to this board about the need for additional forecast technology funding is preaching to the choir though. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2017/09/11/irmas-track-forecast-was-adequate-but-theres-significant-room-for-improvement

Link to comment
Share on other sites

30 minutes ago, OpenToSuggestions said:

Forecast post-mortem by the Capital Weather Gang. Pretty sure commentary to this board about the need for additional forecast technology funding is preaching to the choir though. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2017/09/11/irmas-track-forecast-was-adequate-but-theres-significant-room-for-improvement

He's right.  Maybe money should not go to building a wall, but instead to help the science.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

More damage reports from Naples. My fathers neighbors' houses sustained serious structural damage, including destroyed lanais which were simply blown away in their entirety, and damage to their roofs so the extent that water is leaking into their houses. These are very well built homes from 2005. Frankly, I'm impressed how well they held up in 140 mph winds

Link to comment
Share on other sites

46 minutes ago, CoreyandFrosty said:

Guys. The winds are getting stronger here in Atlanta in last 30 mins. Any idea why?

There's been a wind max in the elevated areas from western NC into western SC and into far NE Georgia.... I don't think it made it into the Atlanta area, but here're the observations from Habersham County airport from 4:35 through 9:15 pm-- it's more consistently impressive than many other parts of Georgia:

11 21:15 E 37 G 53 5.00 Light Rain and Windy BKN011 OVC017 59 57     94% NA NA 29.61 NA      
11 20:55 E 35 G 49 5.00 Light Rain and Windy SCT010 BKN015 OVC022 58 57     94% NA NA 29.61 NA      
11 20:35 E 31 G 58 4.00 Light Rain and Windy BKN013 OVC019 58 57     94% NA NA 29.60 NA      
11 20:15 E 39 G 53 4.00 Light Rain and Windy BKN013 OVC021 58 56     93% NA NA 29.59 NA      
11 19:55 NE 36 G 56 3.00 Light Rain and Windy BKN011 OVC017 58 56     93% NA NA 29.60 NA      
11 19:35 E 32 G 46 3.00 Light Rain and Windy NA 58 56     94% NA NA 29.61 NA      
11 19:10 E 39 G 55 3.00 Rain and Windy BKN014 OVC021 59 57     92% NA NA 29.62 NA      
11 18:55 NE 29 G 51 4.00 Rain and Windy SCT012 BKN019 OVC027 59 57     92% NA NA 29.64 NA      
11 18:35 NE 31 G 44 5.00 Rain and Windy SCT012 BKN019 OVC035 58 56     94% NA NA 29.62 NA      
11 18:15 NE 29 G 41 2.00 Rain and Windy SCT011 BKN016 OVC021 58 56     94% NA NA 29.63 NA      
11 17:55 NE 43 G 55 1.25 Heavy Rain and Windy BKN013 OVC018 58 56     94% NA NA 29.64 NA      
11 17:35 NE 32 G 51 0.75 Windy NA 58 56     93% NA NA 29.65 NA      
11 17:15 NE 29 G 54 2.50 Light Rain and Windy SCT015 OVC020 58 56     93% NA NA 29.67 NA      
11 16:55 NE 38 G 56 2.00 Rain and Windy SCT013 BKN017 OVC023 58 56     93% NA NA 29.69 NA      
11 16:35 E 38 G 52 2.00 Rain and Windy BKN013 OVC020 58 56     93% NA NA 29.70 NA  
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, gymengineer said:

There's been a wind max in the elevated areas from western NC into western SC and into far NE Georgia.... I don't think it made it into the Atlanta area, but here're the observations from Habersham County airport from 4:35 through 9:15 pm-- it's more consistently impressive than many other parts of Georgia:

11 21:15 E 37 G 53 5.00 Light Rain and Windy BKN011 OVC017 59 57     94% NA NA 29.61 NA      
11 20:55 E 35 G 49 5.00 Light Rain and Windy SCT010 BKN015 OVC022 58 57     94% NA NA 29.61 NA      
11 20:35 E 31 G 58 4.00 Light Rain and Windy BKN013 OVC019 58 57     94% NA NA 29.60 NA      
11 20:15 E 39 G 53 4.00 Light Rain and Windy BKN013 OVC021 58 56     93% NA NA 29.59 NA      
11 19:55 NE 36 G 56 3.00 Light Rain and Windy BKN011 OVC017 58 56     93% NA NA 29.60 NA      
11 19:35 E 32 G 46 3.00 Light Rain and Windy NA 58 56     94% NA NA 29.61 NA      
11 19:10 E 39 G 55 3.00 Rain and Windy BKN014 OVC021 59 57     92% NA NA 29.62 NA      
11 18:55 NE 29 G 51 4.00 Rain and Windy SCT012 BKN019 OVC027 59 57     92% NA NA 29.64 NA      
11 18:35 NE 31 G 44 5.00 Rain and Windy SCT012 BKN019 OVC035 58 56     94% NA NA 29.62 NA      
11 18:15 NE 29 G 41 2.00 Rain and Windy SCT011 BKN016 OVC021 58 56     94% NA NA 29.63 NA      
11 17:55 NE 43 G 55 1.25 Heavy Rain and Windy BKN013 OVC018 58 56     94% NA NA 29.64 NA      
11 17:35 NE 32 G 51 0.75 Windy NA 58 56     93% NA NA 29.65 NA      
11 17:15 NE 29 G 54 2.50 Light Rain and Windy SCT015 OVC020 58 56     93% NA NA 29.67 NA      
11 16:55 NE 38 G 56 2.00 Rain and Windy SCT013 BKN017 OVC023 58 56     93% NA NA 29.69 NA      
11 16:35 E 38 G 52 2.00 Rain and Windy BKN013 OVC020 58 56     93% NA NA 29.70 NA  

 

Thanks for the reply. Do you think those little bands SE of Atlanta will contain some winds as they pivot into the ATL area?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Actually, I see one of those bands has a Special weather statement out for it:

 

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
938 PM EDT MON SEP 11 2017

GAZ048-058-059-120215-
Butts GA-Jasper GA-Newton GA-
938 PM EDT MON SEP 11 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN BUTTS...JASPER AND
SOUTHERN NEWTON COUNTIES UNTIL 1015 PM EDT...

At 937 PM EDT...National Weather Service doppler radar indicated a
strong storm within a tropical rain band over Adgateville, moving
northwest at 35 mph.

  HAZARD...enhanced risk of a brief tornado.

  IMPACT...Storms embedded within a tropical rainband have exhibited
           localized rotation. A brief tornado could quickly form.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Jackson, Monticello, Stewart, Turtle Cove, Worthville, Calvin,
Eudora, Hillsboro, North Alcovy, McElheneys Crossroads, Fincherville,
Adgateville and Stark.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'm very disappointed with the extreme rudeness and elitism demonstrated by the moderators during the entire course of the tracking of Harvey. The nastiness and superiority among the moderators and some veterans was embarrassing and many new users will not be returning.

I was also appalled at the criticism leveled at the select few who had the courage to express doubts that Irma was going to produce catastrophic damage on our shores. 40/70 kicked major azZ but was maligned in real time, but was proven right. Other posters were also attacked for casting doubts about the ultimate impact. These users were prescient. Instead of being applauded they were either banned, limited, or suspended. 

The nhc did a poor job with this hurricane and their criticism shouldn't have been censored.  This was basically a cat 2 hurricane with a few higher gusts. I find that 142 mph gust in Naples to be highly dubious and as valid as a weekend course completion certificate from trump university.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, TPAwx said:

Euro verified well overall, but as we saw a 20-25 mile variation 24 hours out can and did result in significantly different outcomes WRT surge, placement of highest winds, and whether the impact was felt by large population centers or more rural areas.

 

IMG_2715.JPG

This graph is very helpful for verification. Can you send the link to where you got it? 

Thanks

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, HarveyLeonardFan said:

 

The nhc did a poor job with this hurricane and their criticism shouldn't have been censored.  This was basically a cat 2 hurricane with a few higher gusts. I find that 142 mph gust in Naples to be highly dubious and as valid as a weekend course completion certificate from trump university.

 

The area where that gust was measured (east side of Naples) was in the northern/eastern eyewall, where one would expect some of the strongest gusts.  It doesn't seem that unbelievable.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

This is an unrealistic request considering the talent level of the majority of the people who are currently running our governmental agencies, but we need someone strong to take over who's able to communicate.

Neil Frank and Bob sheets were the best in my lifetime. Since sheets left I've been underwhelmed. They need someone to start having press conferences and detailed briefings carried live by twc and the three cable news nets when a big hurricane is bearing down on us.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

28 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

The area where that gust was measured (east side of Naples) was in the northern/eastern eyewall, where one would expect some of the strongest gusts.  It doesn't seem that unbelievable.

... and with numerous other gusts recorded of 130+ mph, it's very believable to see an isolated 140+ mph gust like this.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Despite the bad forecasts and the over reliance on the Euro the tv nets had great wall to wall coverage and great pictures. Years ago in the early days of cable tv did not go wall to wall days on end. The game has changed. It used to be CNN deploying John zarella and that was about it. He'd throw it over to flip spiceland and that'd be about it. Then it would be on to other news.

Now, all 4 networks go balls to the walls with great sound and great images because the numbers go way up during hurricane coverage. CNN is number 3 behind Fox and msnbc but during hurricane coverage they win because they draw in non political viewers who rarely watch the news.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Over hype is going to happen with any storm that is a cat5 5 days from landfall.   Nothing can be done about it.  People are going to get a false impression in there head and from the media about how bad the storm is going to be in their back yard and then blame NHC when that false impression is wrong. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • jburns unpinned this topic

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...