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About RutgersWx92

  • Birthday 05/16/1992

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
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  • Location:
    Bridgewater, NJ

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  1. I agree. There’s no way that can be their reasoning. That would be absurd.
  2. Remember the size of the storm matters. Larger hurricanes tend to have lower pressure. A small compact storm like Dorian does not need to be sub 920 to be Cat 5 strength.
  3. Interesting. I’m just to your north in Bridgewater and never went to all rain. The most was graupel with a little rain mixed in. Only a dusting so far but all snow now. Temp is 34F.
  4. 3” in Bridgewater. Paved surfaces are covered now. Has lightened up some in the last hour though.
  5. About 2” here now with moderate snow. Still having a hard time sticking to roads but spots are starting to get slushy.
  6. About 0.75” here so far with steady light snow.
  7. The Euro wasn't without its own issues too though, as has been pointed out already. Even just 24 hours out, it was way too far west with Irma's track once it got to Florida. Overall it performed the best, but that was a crucial mistake that made a big difference for highly-populated areas.
  8. The ECMWF struggled also. It was right about more Cuba interaction, but the 00z run yesterday had the center of Irma tracking just west of Tampa Bay, which was obviously way too far west and a pretty bad forecast for just 24 hours out.
  9. It's downright irresponsible and reckless to be making statements like this. It encourages complacency when in reality this is still a very serious (if not dire) situation for Florida. The models have Irma intensifying in the very warm waters once it pulls away from Cuba, and there is nothing that makes me believe that won't happen. Even IF (and that's a big if) it weakens down to a Category 3 by this afternoon, it could easily strengthen back to a solid Category 4 or stronger before making landfall. Also, this will likely be tracking up a good portion of the west coast of Florida, and it's a very large storm, so many places will be severely impacted. This is compounded by the fact that SW FL and Tampa are very prone to storm surge. So please, stop already.
  10. Actually the first since 1924. I was surprised when I read that too.
  11. Looking at the HWRF model, it has Irma beginning the northerly turn between 00z and 03z. The next couple hours will be crucial to whether it just scrapes the coast and hits the barrier islands like most of the models say (which shouldn't weaken the storm much) or whether it goes into mainland Cuba (which would definitely weaken it some). It's a wait-and-see game right now, and anyone trying to downplay this yet is being ridiculous.