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aperson

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About aperson

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KAUS
  • Location:
    Austin

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  1. aperson

    Arctic Sea Ice Extent, Area, and Volume

    Connolly et al., 2017: https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/02626667.2017.1324974 Emphasis mine. Thus the Alekseev et al. 2016 data set cannot be used to refute the CO2 hypothesis impact on SIE, that is CO2 -> increased temperature -> decreased SIE, because doing so is a circular argument. The rest of your posting career is a similar abuse of scientific literature. People don't engage you because you're correct (you're delusional), they don't engage you because of the Bull**** Asymmetry Principle.
  2. aperson

    Major Hurricane Florence: STORM MODE THREAD

    Impressed with the amount of lightning coming along w/ that convection
  3. aperson

    Avoiding Hothouse Earth

    You provided 4 points that are not discussed in the article. If you're going to rebut an article, try sticking to actual claims made in it.
  4. PWATs and theta-e ridge all the way down into the Bay of Campeche are very impressive. This thing is a moisture cannon.
  5. I'm going to have to end my spree of relentless lurking to chuckle at calculus being an "integral skill". Tautologically true!
  6. aperson

    HAARP

    This thread should be a canonical example of Confirmation Bias
  7. aperson

    Winter 2017-18 Medium/Long Range Disco

    GFS has been giving a moderate signal for a sudden stratospheric warming in the 1.5-2wk range for a bit over two days now. While there's likely going to be a strong mediation of Arctic air toward the Siberian instead of Canadian side, I think there is a good chance for a -AO outbreak starting around the end of the month.
  8. MJO is updated through yesterday here: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/ I personally expect a slow pattern due to ridging feedbacks from low Arctic sea ice extent around the Bering Sea.
  9. aperson

    Cross Hemisphere ridge

    The pattern appears to be a strong +DA (dipole anomaly), e.g. the second mode of the Arctic Oscillation's EOF (see fig 2: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2008GL036706/full). This article posits that sea ice loss on the Pacific side generates a teleconnection that results in this sort of pacific ridging behavior: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-017-01907-4
  10. aperson

    Potential Energy Flux

    While investigating the Arctic warm anomaly intrusion into the Bering Strait I found December 1, 2007 to be a good analog of December 23, 2017. In particular, similar MJO phase 7 exit with high zonal available potential energy results in a similar 500mb geopotential height configuration in the Arctic. Both have a loose wavenumber 5 configuration, and Arctic 2m surface temperatures are very similar for each case. I think you may find other analogs by searching for strong MJO Phase 7 exits around Nov-Feb. I used this paper as the source for Dec 1, 2007 and for looking for MJO correlates: http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0502.1
  11. aperson

    Tropical Storm Jose

    Looks like a bifurcation around day 3. The north group are (almost) all recurving out to sea. Substantial variability in the south group.
  12. aperson

    Tropical Storm Jose

    Is the dprog/dt trend you're talking about the successive weakening of the ridge that's occurring in these runs? I assume that if this trend continues the system will be steered toward landfall by the low pressure system. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=z500a&runtime=2017091106&fh=66&xpos=0&ypos=80 https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=z500a&runtime=2017091112&fh=60&xpos=0&ypos=80 https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=z500a&runtime=2017091118&fh=54&xpos=0&ypos=81
  13. aperson

    Major Hurricane Irma- STORM MODE

    This system's extratropical transition is making a very big rain threat to the NE coast of FL into GA. Many flood gauges in JAX at major flood stage now: http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=jax
  14. aperson

    Major Hurricane Irma- STORM MODE

    Is the blowup in windfield and precipitation related to the extratropical transition of these systems? Irma is interacting with that cold front while still at a very low pressure.
  15. aperson

    Major Hurricane Irma- STORM MODE

    No idea. I'm way too much of a hobbyist to know to what extent terrain and water buildup effects could contribute to BOE here. My naive opinion is that the pass near Lake Okeechobee helped prevent a more rapid weakening.
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