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  1. aperson

    Arctic Sea Ice Extent, Area, and Volume

    Connolly et al., 2017: https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/02626667.2017.1324974 Emphasis mine. Thus the Alekseev et al. 2016 data set cannot be used to refute the CO2 hypothesis impact on SIE, that is CO2 -> increased temperature -> decreased SIE, because doing so is a circular argument. The rest of your posting career is a similar abuse of scientific literature. People don't engage you because you're correct (you're delusional), they don't engage you because of the Bull**** Asymmetry Principle.
  2. aperson

    Major Hurricane Florence: STORM MODE THREAD

    Impressed with the amount of lightning coming along w/ that convection
  3. aperson

    Avoiding Hothouse Earth

    You provided 4 points that are not discussed in the article. If you're going to rebut an article, try sticking to actual claims made in it.
  4. PWATs and theta-e ridge all the way down into the Bay of Campeche are very impressive. This thing is a moisture cannon.
  5. I'm going to have to end my spree of relentless lurking to chuckle at calculus being an "integral skill". Tautologically true!
  6. aperson


    This thread should be a canonical example of Confirmation Bias
  7. aperson

    Winter 2017-18 Medium/Long Range Disco

    GFS has been giving a moderate signal for a sudden stratospheric warming in the 1.5-2wk range for a bit over two days now. While there's likely going to be a strong mediation of Arctic air toward the Siberian instead of Canadian side, I think there is a good chance for a -AO outbreak starting around the end of the month.
  8. MJO is updated through yesterday here: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/ I personally expect a slow pattern due to ridging feedbacks from low Arctic sea ice extent around the Bering Sea.
  9. aperson

    Cross Hemisphere ridge

    The pattern appears to be a strong +DA (dipole anomaly), e.g. the second mode of the Arctic Oscillation's EOF (see fig 2: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2008GL036706/full). This article posits that sea ice loss on the Pacific side generates a teleconnection that results in this sort of pacific ridging behavior: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-017-01907-4
  10. aperson

    Potential Energy Flux

    While investigating the Arctic warm anomaly intrusion into the Bering Strait I found December 1, 2007 to be a good analog of December 23, 2017. In particular, similar MJO phase 7 exit with high zonal available potential energy results in a similar 500mb geopotential height configuration in the Arctic. Both have a loose wavenumber 5 configuration, and Arctic 2m surface temperatures are very similar for each case. I think you may find other analogs by searching for strong MJO Phase 7 exits around Nov-Feb. I used this paper as the source for Dec 1, 2007 and for looking for MJO correlates: http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0502.1
  11. aperson

    Tropical Storm Jose

    Looks like a bifurcation around day 3. The north group are (almost) all recurving out to sea. Substantial variability in the south group.
  12. aperson

    Tropical Storm Jose

    Is the dprog/dt trend you're talking about the successive weakening of the ridge that's occurring in these runs? I assume that if this trend continues the system will be steered toward landfall by the low pressure system. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=z500a&runtime=2017091106&fh=66&xpos=0&ypos=80 https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=z500a&runtime=2017091112&fh=60&xpos=0&ypos=80 https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=z500a&runtime=2017091118&fh=54&xpos=0&ypos=81
  13. aperson

    Major Hurricane Irma- STORM MODE

    This system's extratropical transition is making a very big rain threat to the NE coast of FL into GA. Many flood gauges in JAX at major flood stage now: http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=jax
  14. aperson

    Major Hurricane Irma- STORM MODE

    Is the blowup in windfield and precipitation related to the extratropical transition of these systems? Irma is interacting with that cold front while still at a very low pressure.
  15. aperson

    Major Hurricane Irma- STORM MODE

    No idea. I'm way too much of a hobbyist to know to what extent terrain and water buildup effects could contribute to BOE here. My naive opinion is that the pass near Lake Okeechobee helped prevent a more rapid weakening.