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stormtracker

Major Hurricane Irma- STORM MODE

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1 minute ago, Crazy4Wx said:

Eye seems be shrinking a bit as it approaches   Cuban coast...also looked like it took a wobble south of NHC track by a tiny bit.

Yes a bit SW

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Looking at the HWRF model, it has Irma beginning the northerly turn between 00z and 03z. The next couple hours will be crucial to whether it just scrapes the coast and hits the barrier islands like most of the models say (which shouldn't weaken the storm much) or whether it goes into mainland Cuba (which would definitely weaken it some). It's a wait-and-see game right now, and anyone trying to downplay this yet is being ridiculous.

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2 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

With all the talk about Cuba interactions and the effect on Irma, I wonder whether what we're really seeing is not so much that interaction with Cuba isn't weakening Irma, per se, but that Irma is in such a favorable environment for strengthening (low shear and very warm SSTs) that Cuba interactions are more likely just preventing that strengthening, i.e., if there were no Cuba, maybe Irma would be heading back up to 185 mph winds.  The NHC discussion doesn't really address that directly, but they can't debate every detail with limited space and needing to keep focus on the big issues.  Thoughts?

"The environment is favorable for Irma to maintain its category 4
status, and only unpredictable eyewall replacement cycles could
result in intensity fluctuations during the next 48 hours. The
interaction of the hurricane's circulation with Cuba will probably
not result in any relevant change in intensity."

You hit the nail on the head. The outflow on the Sw and Ne sides is incredible. As good as you will ever see. It's in an incredible environment and i would argue would be shooting for 200 without land interaction based on total heat content 

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Just now, Quincy said:

Latest SREF has quite a spread for potential hurricane/low center positions for early Sunday morning: 

IMG_4518.thumb.JPG.87fbd4ad94894629416bc8de8ac033e4.JPG

Isn't that almost just as bad as the NAM for tropical systems?

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3 minutes ago, audioguy3107 said:

 

Good grief, I know it's just a wobble but Irma seems to have actually tracked a tiny bit west southwest on the last couple of frames.

no doubt.  Normally a wobble isn't worthy of any attention, but so close to land it makes a difference.

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Out of pure curiosity (and I have been lurking for hundreds of pages from the last thread) what would we say is the most likely reason to explain why the models have repeatedly shifted reliably westward for the past couple of days?  What influence was the biggest surprise to the models?

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4 minutes ago, skagen00 said:

Out of pure curiosity (and I have been lurking for hundreds of pages from the last thread) what would we say is the most likely reason to explain why the models have repeatedly shifted reliably westward for the past couple of days?  What influence was the biggest surprise to the models?

Believe the ridging to its north has been a bit more robust.

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12z's Euro had an IR depiction (at 10pm ET) of the eye bisected by the N. Cuba coast....either it is just a tad fast, or south....can't tell...

 

irmair.png.029f07e2281fd1e7a97b24892bbdb8e1.png

I believe we will see the northwest turn very shortly. Pretty well modeled at this point.

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11 minutes ago, RutgersWx92 said:

Looking at the HWRF model, it has Irma beginning the northerly turn between 00z and 03z. The next couple hours will be crucial to whether it just scrapes the coast and hits the barrier islands like most of the models say (which shouldn't weaken the storm much) or whether it goes into mainland Cuba (which would definitely weaken it some). It's a wait-and-see game right now, and anyone trying to downplay this yet is being ridiculous.

Great post - just looked at those panels and it definitely shows that well.  Needs to start turning soon...

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Out of pure curiosity (and I have been lurking for hundreds of pages from the last thread) what would we say is the most likely reason to explain why the models have repeatedly shifted reliably westward for the past couple of days?  What influence was the biggest surprise to the models?

 

 

The majority models have temporarily turned Irma more westward in response to increasing 500mb heights over the SE CONUS as the trough pulled lifted out. We have saw this in track for several days. However, the 500 mb heights gives away to a weakness that develops over the southern Tennessee Valley. At the same time, Atlantic ridging erodes and backs east. The timing is absolutely critical to how southeasterly to southerly steering flow develops over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and Florida. Hence, here we are staring that setup down.

 

 

 

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2 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

Latest recon fix is 926mb, with slight south of due west movement.

A quote from a met on Reddit: 

"The storms eye is tracking a bit more west into Cuba than most expected. This could be due to a pretty large wobble southwest. However, as Z-cast mentioned, a trough is about to start picking this storm up Northwest then North."

 

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4 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said:

Looks like shes starting to interact with the trough, some mets saying she'll start getting shoved northwest in the next hour or two

If that NW movement starts in the next 2-3 hours, wouldn't that be about 10-12 hours sooner then modeled? I'm asking because maybe I'm looking at things wrong but it seems like the NW turn wasn't supposed to happen until about noon tomorrow. 

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21 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

What kind of shear are we looking at later in the weekend if this thing does decide to head toward the panhandle? Is it pretty pronounced?

It stays modest or even non-existent until it passes near the Florida Keys. The 0Z SHIPS guidance just came out and it's still not terribly bullish with intensification though it does increase winds to 145 knots (165 mph) before landfall.

                    * ATLANTIC     SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST          *
                    * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE,       OHC AVAILABLE     *
                    *  IRMA        AL112017  09/09/17  00 UTC        *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND   140   142   143   143   144   141   135   124   104    80    62    48    38
V (KT) LAND      140   142   143   143   144   141   101    58    38    30    28    27    27
V (KT) LGEM      140   142   142   142   140   136    99    56    37    30    28    27    27
Storm Type      TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP

SHEAR (KT)         5     7     6     5     9    13    24    26    41    41    27    25    34
SHEAR ADJ (KT)    -3     0     1     0     0     6     4     5     1    -8     0     5     2
SHEAR DIR        342   322   320   274   248   234   222   212   201   203   211   231   228
SST (C)         29.9  30.0  30.1  30.1  29.9  30.0  30.0  29.8  28.4  27.0  26.0  25.6  25.9
POT. INT. (KT)   168   169   171   170   167   169   170   167   144   125   112   105   109
ADJ. POT. INT.   156   156   156   154   149   151   152   151   126   106    93    85    88
200 MB T (C)   -50.2 -50.5 -50.6 -50.1 -49.9 -49.9 -49.1 -49.5 -48.4 -48.8 -48.8 -49.1 -49.6
200 MB VXT (C)   1.3   1.3   1.1   1.0   0.9   1.2   1.9   1.6   1.7   1.4   2.2   2.0   1.9
TH_E DEV (C)      14    13    13    13    12    10     6     1     1     0     1     0     1
700-500 MB RH     58    61    61    62    61    62    64    61    55    47    42    40    41
MODEL VTX (KT)    37    39    40    40    45    49    51    49    43    33    23    17    10
850 MB ENV VOR    77    85    91   100   122   132   140   148   139   176   138    97    68
200 MB DIV        31    21    41    85    85    84    41   106    90    62    35     3    -2
700-850 TADV       2     6     8     9    13    23    33    47    49    21     0     6     3
LAND (KM)         48    14    22    16    44    53   -31   -26  -208  -413  -538  -560  -519
LAT (DEG N)     22.1  22.3  22.5  23.0  23.4  24.7  26.6  29.0  31.9  34.1  35.4  35.7  35.3
LONG(DEG W)     77.2  78.2  79.2  79.9  80.6  81.4  81.7  82.5  83.7  85.2  86.6  87.2  87.0
STM SPEED (KT)    11     9     9     8     7     8    11    14    14    11     6     1     2
HEAT CONTENT      54   109    16    23    48    25    59    50     0     0     0     0     0
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This is a very crucial next couple of hours which may end up defining the outcome of Irma.  You can see on the satellite presentation that she's really beginning to get her act together and strengthen, the IR presentation and eye is about the best it's looked in the last 24 hours.  If a NW movement can commence without weakening due to Cuba, i see no reason that Irma can't make a run at a solid cat 5 (175 - 185 mph)....the environment is just too rich.  If Irma makes it further inland than the coast and stays there for 6 to 12 hours, then forget about it, I would seriously doubt she could recover.  It's amazing that of all the pages, model watching, recon missions etc, it really may come down to the next 3 to 6 hours and whether she stays over the coast.

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2 minutes ago, Metasequoia said:

Looking at satellite images, it seems like Irma is slowing down as it approaches Cuba...at least to my eyes.

I think I can tend to back that up slightly looking at the last Goes 16 image. Still intense cloud tops pretty much wrapping around the eye. The eye still looks to be over the barrier islands off the coast, however is very close to entering the Bay of Jiguey as I mentioned earlier. 

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3 minutes ago, Metasequoia said:

Looking at satellite images, it seems like Irma is slowing down as it approaches Cuba...at least to my eyes.

It's contracting and beginning the modeled turn it appears 

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