Mountain_Patch Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Sorry Rjay this needed to be shared asap since we have people dscussing evac. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 You cant deny that Jose continues to creep ever closer into the Irma effects once she reaches the Carolina coast. He seems to be doing his best to catch up. What is the general thinking on the distance between 2 storms before Fujiwhara becomes a possibility? Could Jose slow Irma down and push her southwest before she can escape to the north? (Thus a prolonged rain event for the Carolinas?) And if this were to happen, wouldnt that mean Jose is a likely landfall candidate to the mid atlantic area as they rotate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 GFS hits Georgia as a high end cat 4, low end cat 5? After the eyewall pretty much hits Miami as well, talk about devastation... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Z-Cast Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/905821713467936768 GFS NE bias has been evident for a couple days now. This only confirms it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYC10023 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Just now, adiabatic13 said: evac timing is based on population density and how long it'll reasonably require to empty a demographic zone, i.e. lots of people? not many evac routes? get them out earlier There's actually more evac routes up there then down south. 75 is it for Lee/Collier unless they cut over to the east coast and fight the 95 traffic which will be at a standstill. At least up in Pinellas they've got 75 or 4 which could take them to the turnpike. Hell, I dunno, there's got to be some reasoning behind it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, Mountain_Patch said: Sorry Rjay this needed to be shared asap since we have people dscussing evac. NHC leaning toward Euro SFL landfall solution for this exact reason. Superior model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarbondaleWX Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 4 minutes ago, adiabatic13 said: evac timing is based on population density and how long it'll reasonably require to empty a demographic zone, i.e. lots of people? not many evac routes? get them out earlier I'm really surprised with the amount of people I've seen evacuating Florida already without any evacuations being announced yet. This is a very good thing. People are being very cautious even after Matthew caused a semi-false scare last year. This also means less people evacuating at the same time when a potential mandatory evacuation gets announced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPAwx Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Once again a reminder that there is a thread for questions like "should I evacuate?" or "what should I tell my grandmother's cousin to do?" Yes, my apologies for posting the Pinellas news here. Did not mean to set off a string of questions, but most everyone has their eyes on this thread and was more for FYI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Biggest worry is the GFS is continuing to inch further west. Verbatim that track would bring the eyewall ashore. Have to see if the Euro stays put. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 The euro did have a couple of burps in the 4-5 day forecasts back on the 5th, but has since corrected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 This probably should go in the other thread but i don't understand the Pinellas county evacuations. It is clear now that Irma is coming up the/ or slightly off of the East Coast of Florida. So that means strong north winds in the Tampa area. Not a south wind that would drive water up the bay. I guess once Irma gets north that latitufe the winds shift to west but even so this doesn't seem like a huge surge problem for that area. Didn't like to see the 12Z shift slightly west again. Even 10 or 15 mile shifts make a big difference. The eyewall is the key. A bit like the solar eclipse. Big difference in a 99% partial eclipse or getting under the total. Eyewall verses just out of the eyewall make a big difference. Got to keep it just offshore! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 14 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Also, at best here you have about 10-20kt of Southerly shear, which would help to flare out the system and increase outflow as it moves North. I haven't seen a GFS or Euro run yet that dramatically increases shear near Irma. Also, the shear vector is parallel to movement. That's not going to do much, if anything, to weaken the storm, especially if its far enough offshore to access the high TCHP waters in the Gulf Stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Just now, wxeyeNH said: This probably should go in the other thread but i don't understand the Pinellas county evacuations. It is clear now that Irma is coming up the/ or slightly off of the East Coast of Florida. So that means strong north winds in the Tampa area. Not a south wind that would drive water up the bay. I guess once Irma gets north that latitufe the winds shift to west but even so this doesn't seem like a huge surge problem for that area. Didn't like to see the 12Z shift slightly west again. Even 10 or 15 mile shifts make a big difference. The eyewall is the key. A bit like the solar eclipse. Big difference in a 99% partial eclipse or getting under the total. Eyewall verses just out of the eyewall make a big difference. Got to keep it just offshore! respect the cone. ^this is center line thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gritsnc Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 4 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said: You cant deny that Jose continues to creep ever closer into the Irma effects once she reaches the Carolina coast. He seems to be doing his best to catch up. What is the general thinking on the distance between 2 storms before Fujiwhara becomes a possibility? Could Jose slow Irma down and push her southwest before she can escape to the north? (Thus a prolonged rain event for the Carolinas?) And if this were to happen, wouldnt that mean Jose is a likely landfall candidate to the mid atlantic area as they rotate? I just asked Lanie Pope about that. She said thinks Jose will weaken. Yet, Brad Panovich says we need to keep an eye on him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarbondaleWX Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, NicInNC said: I just asked Lanie Pope about that. She said thinks Jose will weaken. Yet, Brad Panovich says we need to keep an eye on him. What would cause the weakening of a storm in record high temperature waters? Could Irma have an effect there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Hurricane warning for Jose to hit Northern Leewards as a major hurricane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 I just grabbed this traffic map view of FL off google maps. This echoes the earlier comments about people already evacuating. Traffic at 12pm on a Thursdays is of course not usually backed up on the northbound interstates. Good luck to all those evacuating, be patient, there's plenty of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYC10023 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Just now, adiabatic13 said: evac timing is based on population density and how long it'll reasonably require to empty a demographic zone, i.e. lots of people? not many evac routes? get them out earlier There's actually more evac routes up there then down south. 75 is it for Lee/Collier unless they cut over to the east coast and fight the 95 traffic which will be at a standstill. At least up in Pinellas they've got 75 or 4 which could take them to the turnpike. Hell, I dunno, there's got to be some reasoning behind it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 If I'm reading it right latest recon just found 145kt SFMR surface winds and 150kt FL. Probably hold the intensity at 150kt given the possibility of under sampling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 1 minute ago, CarbondaleWX said: What would cause the weakening of a storm in record high temperature waters? Could Irma have an effect there? There's a lot more to it than water temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wild Weather Monger Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 3 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: GFS hits Georgia as a high end cat 4, low end cat 5? After the eyewall pretty much hits Miami as well, talk about devastation... Adjust for GFS poleward bias exhibited thus far with Irma and Miami gets the core. GFS track this run brings damaging winds well inland to many populated areas too. Augusta, Athens, Atlanta, much of SC, and the higher elevations in the southern apps. Trees still in full foliage too. Would be lights out for millions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adiabatic13 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Irma on IR sat looking the healthiest she has all morning, cooling cloud tops, an expanding CDO, less restricted outflow to the NW and a nice warm eye Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jfreebird Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 So does this storm get bigger because it gets weaker? or is it pulling more moisture from somewhere? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 The ggem looks pretty similar to the GFS but takes the eye on shore. Noise, really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Actually I think there is a 149kt SFMR reading. Does NHC use 10 sec or 30 sec FL winds for intensity? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adiabatic13 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 she expands in areal coverage because she's entering the mid latitudes and because she gets nicely ventilated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 1 minute ago, Jfreebird said: So does this storm get bigger because it gets weaker? or is it pulling more moisture from somewhere? Well, the windfield does expand significantly on the models... But it also starts interacting with the trough which will greatly expand cloud coverage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarbondaleWX Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 7 minutes ago, MUWX said: There's a lot more to it than water temps. Oh no doubt but I just think we're in uncharted territory when it comes to these storms. We've never seen what hurricanes can do in water this warm. These storms are becoming freight trains going at full speed with no brakes to slow them down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Polka1 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, adiabatic13 said: Irma on IR sat looking the healthiest she has all morning, cooling cloud tops, an expanding CDO, less restricted outflow to the NW and a nice warm eye Not seeing any of the eye wall issues of earlier either. If it completed it's strange EWC then it could be interesting to watch over the next few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 The expanse of 100+kt winds on the north side of Irma (per latest recon) is something we've, or at least I, have never really seen before... wowzers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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