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Polka1

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  1. Polka1

    Michael Banter Thread

    What's amazing is you guys didn't deal with it before it turned the discussions into complete garbage.
  2. Polka1

    Major Hurricane Michael

    Wow, this retraces a good portion of the route that Jeff Piotrowski took on his broadcast as the storm rolled in (and he hid at the Walmart). You can see how much worse it got.
  3. Polka1

    Michael Banter Thread

    Anyone hear from Simon Brewer and Juston Drake? They were both on Twitter talking about chasing in Mexico Beach, but nothing since it got real nasty. I guess there isn't much info flowing yet, however.
  4. Polka1

    Major Hurricane Michael

    Either way, hopefully he saved another camera or two to capture footage from the house. They had front row seats to the surge.
  5. Polka1

    Michael Banter Thread

    Or PA, where Intercourse is a bit up from the town Bird in Hand - not far away from Paradise and Fertility.
  6. Polka1

    Major Hurricane Michael

    Correct me if I am wrong, but wasn't the town water tower next to that cell tower in the back of this photo?
  7. Polka1

    Michael Banter Thread

    Bad news is that between the live site map showing the chasers, tweets from other chasers who said they were in Mexico City, and Jeff Piotrowski's live feed it seems that there were a lot of chasers in major risk areas between the two. Jeff claimed to have been down there but barely made it out before storm surge and fallen trees blocked the way - and that was a bit before it got REALLY bad. Hope others made it out or found places that held.
  8. Polka1

    Michael Banter Thread

    Such a bad spot. When I watched them make the decision to drive over the bridge near Port St. Joe and head that way I couldn't believe it. I had watch when they traveled through to Port St. Joe earlier in the feed and it was clear that the whole are was super low. More importantly the only road to get out was basically on the coast.
  9. Polka1

    Michael Banter Thread

    It's bad. They are on the SE side of Mexico Beach and the water has trapped them near the shore line and the best option they seem to have is a wooden house on pilings.
  10. Polka1

    Major Hurricane Irma

    It seems you've answered the issue yourself. Losing a house is a vastly different scenario than 15k of repairs. Also keep in mind the max winds near the core will likely be enough to exceed even the strictest building standards which would be important to all that new construction (especially those high rises). Population density is far higher east and those max winds don't extend as far, so placement as it relates to population density will matter. The population centers on the west side are a touch further north and one would hope the most extreme effects would be tempered by land interaction by then, if only minimally - plus the fact that they should be on the west side which should bring it down a bit more. This doesn't even take into account storm surge differences. It's going to be a mess either scenario, but the problems will be much worse if the eye wall is closer to Miami.
  11. Polka1

    Major Hurricane Irma

    Time will tell if the Euro is on to something or if it's a one run thing. Interesting as the rest of the models seems to be onto the previous Euro track. Guidance would be pretty tight without the Euro deciding it wanted to leave the party just when everyone else was getting there.
  12. Polka1

    Major Hurricane Irma

    Seems to me this run would put Miami near RFQ but it would spare them the worst of the onshore winds that would push the surge higher as the storm comes on shore. Some of the wind projections suggests that it could be far enough west to get them out of the mega RFQ winds too. Also, while the Gulf coast comes into play, the eye would be over land which should reduce impacts at north, whereas the thing would still be full on all the way into Savannah in the further east scenarios. In short, less surge all the way up the east coast and more rapid deterioration would be good. We are talking small projected differences here, but perhaps not as bad as a scenario overall.
  13. Polka1

    Major Hurricane Irma

    Not seeing any of the eye wall issues of earlier either. If it completed it's strange EWC then it could be interesting to watch over the next few hours.
  14. Polka1

    Major Hurricane Irma

    It's irresponsible for them to suggest that Tampa might not even get rain without letting folks know that it's only a slight chance as explaining that this all could still end up on their doorstep. I didn't see the broadcast in question but I can't believe a professional would even go there at this point.
  15. Polka1

    Harvey - Main Thread

    Decent but sensationalist headline. The dams did their job (thus far) remarkable well. Saved ~400k acre feet of water from being added to Buffalo Bayou at a terrible time. It's not the dams fault that folks developed right up to it's edge. Nor directly in it's designed overflow. Or even worse, put housing developments right inside of the reservoir itself. I'd take a guess that the guys who designed them way back when would be shaking their heads if they saw they placed a warehouse right in the north overflow of Addicks, for example.
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