emblaze2 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 1 minute ago, OUGrad05 said: Thanks for posting I was about to do the same to see if anyone knew what the cause might be? Can't recall seeing something just like that in the past and I'm not sure what to make of it. Looks like it blew off an updraft in the southern eyewall. Maybe indicative of a wee bit of shear? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 NAM initialized a fair bit south vs. 6z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUGrad05 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 5 minutes ago, Blazinator said: Looks like it blew off an updraft in the southern eyewall. Maybe indicative of a wee bit of shear? Looks like some shear I agree, but would have to be reasonably strong I would think to get through the core like that, the rest of the structure remains pretty solid without other shearing evidence in the core. Edit: blowing my loop up to full screen it does look like maybe there is some shear on the SW side of the storm that's impacting the core a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 For those who are interested, here's a crude plot of Irma's forecast path (NHC's 11 am advisory) through a box where the Labor Day Hurricane (1935) and Andrew (1992) rapidly intensified and then maintained their peak intensity. What's relevant is Irma's path over water. The portion of land enclosed in the box should be excluded, as this was a quick sketch for purposes of illustration, only. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 4 minutes ago, Wow said: NAM initialized a fair bit south vs. 6z run. Y0u mean GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbullsfan Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 local Met just said a fair chance Tampa area wouldnt even get any rain from Irma and just a litle wind, that seems like an insanely false sense of security still 3 days out. With a storm this big even with an east coast landfall the west coast will still feel affects correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
4waresnowcone Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 local Met just said a fair chance Tampa area wouldnt even get any rain from Irma and just a litle wind, that seems like an insanely false sense of security still 3 days out. With a storm this big even with an east coast landfall the west coast will still feel affects correct?Yeah I have family that got out of Tampa under the "better safe than sorry" rule. I wouldn't want to risk it, given the nature of the beast that is approaching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adiabatic13 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 1 minute ago, dbullsfan said: local Met just said a fair chance Tampa area wouldnt even get any rain from Irma and just a litle wind, that seems like an insanely false sense of security still 3 days out. With a storm this big even with an east coast landfall the west coast will still feel affects correct? degreed met? many on local TV are not and thus not qualified to speculate beyond what the NHC is advising, Tampa residents should pay attention to the NHC and be prepared to act if a watch is issued for the west FL coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 5 minutes ago, LakeEffectKing said: Y0u mean GFS? No the NAM but the GFS is a bit south for far at 6 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 11 minutes ago, AcePuppy said: With the storm now in the 3 day window of SE FL, I'm sure it can wobble to the West or East just a little bit in the next day or so, but does anyone have a graphic showing the latest Euro and GFS as to where the eye is near South FL? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kenavp Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 5 minutes ago, dbullsfan said: local Met just said a fair chance Tampa area wouldnt even get any rain from Irma and just a litle wind, that seems like an insanely false sense of security still 3 days out. With a storm this big even with an east coast landfall the west coast will still feel affects correct? Pinellas county (west of Tampa) is currently voting on mandatory evacuations starting tomorrow for people in coastal locations. So, the met may be irresponsible, but county officials are taking this seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 1 minute ago, dbullsfan said: local Met just said a fair chance Tampa area wouldnt even get any rain from Irma and just a litle wind, that seems like an insanely false sense of security still 3 days out. With a storm this big even with an east coast landfall the west coast will still feel affects correct? The forecaster in question almost certainly is basing his/her forecast solely on the 0z GFS which showed 0.06" of rain for Tampa from 9/10 12z-9/11 12z. The forecaster likely had not seen the 6z run (0.36") or 0z ECMWF (2.05"). The ECMWF has been verifying best in terms of Irma's track, at least so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 1 minute ago, Wow said: No the NAM but the GFS is a bit south for far at 6 hrs Latest infrared would agree with you as well. She looks to be gaining some latitude now vs previous wobbles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 7, 2017 Author Share Posted September 7, 2017 Tampa is most certainly going to see impacts from Irma, especially if the more Westerly tracks verify. We're not talking about a small compact storm like Charley, picture this more like Katrina where the effects were felt well away from the center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 18 minutes ago, Blazinator said: Looks like it blew off an updraft in the southern eyewall. Maybe indicative of a wee bit of shear? Hispaniola effect? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Polka1 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: Tampa is most certainly going to see impacts from Irma, especially if the more Westerly tracks verify. We're not talking about a small compact storm like Charley, picture this more like Katrina where the effects were felt well away from the center. It's irresponsible for them to suggest that Tampa might not even get rain without letting folks know that it's only a slight chance as explaining that this all could still end up on their doorstep. I didn't see the broadcast in question but I can't believe a professional would even go there at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 I think the depth of the warm waters closer to the Bahamas is pretty significant.Deepest in the Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 A met can correct me if I am wrong, but the GFS through 30 honestly looks very similar to its 6Z counterpart. No interaction with Cuba as of right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 7, 2017 Author Share Posted September 7, 2017 The 12z GFS is pretty much right ontop of the 00z position through day one. Also of note, the mid-level jet associated with the NE US trough is displaced further North and slightly weaker, so I might expect Irma to take a more Westerly track vs 06z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 1 minute ago, Buddy1987 said: A met can correct me if I am wrong, but the GFS through 30 honestly looks very similar to its 6Z counterpart. No interaction with Cuba as of right now. Yes, a touch slower and maybe a hair further south, but not that much difference. EDIT: Whoops, didn't see the "met can correct me" part -- I certainly ain't one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 7, 2017 Author Share Posted September 7, 2017 1 minute ago, Polka1 said: It's irresponsible for them to suggest that Tampa might not even get rain without letting folks know that it's only a slight chance as explaining that this all could still end up on their doorstep. I didn't see the broadcast in question but I can't believe a professional would even go there at this point. I'm not surprised. We had people here downplaying Harvey, especially the rainfall aspect, even as the system made landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 7, 2017 Author Share Posted September 7, 2017 Irma is a tick further South because the trough is a hair less deep, thus a more Southerly or Westerly track. That's terrible news for South Florida and Florida in general. It also keeps Irma away from the shear axis to the North longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crazy4Wx Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Just now, NJwx85 said: Irma is a tick further South because the trough is a hair less deep, thus a more Southerly or Westerly track. That's terrible news for South Florida and Florida in general. It also keeps Irma away from the shear axis to the North longer. Looks like the GFS is coming in line with the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 17 minutes ago, dbullsfan said: local Met just said a fair chance Tampa area wouldnt even get any rain from Irma and just a litle wind, that seems like an insanely false sense of security still 3 days out. With a storm this big even with an east coast landfall the west coast will still feel affects correct? I'm gonna guess that was Channel 8 or Channel 28? Stick to WTSP, they're the ones that live with the legacy of Dick Fletcher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 PBP on 12 GFS https://www.facebook.com/weatherbellanalytics/videos/1626618084070034/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Appears through 48 hours that 12z GFS is mainly just slower than 6z. Maybe a hair south, but much more east (slower) than prior run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 7, 2017 Author Share Posted September 7, 2017 As you guys can see, the UL environment couldn't be better. The shear axis over the Northern gulf is even weaker as compared to the 06z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelJ Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 21 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: For those who are interested, here's a crude plot of Irma's forecast path (NHC's 11 am advisory) through a box where the Labor Day Hurricane (1935) and Andrew (1992) rapidly intensified and then maintained their peak intensity. What's relevant is Irma's path over water. The portion of land enclosed in the box should be excluded, as this was a quick sketch for purposes of illustration, only. Very good info here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYC10023 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, TriPol said: I'm gonna guess that was Channel 8 or Channel 28? Stick to WTSP, they're the ones that live with the legacy of Dick Fletcher. I was going to bet on BayNews 9. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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