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Major Hurricane Irma


NJwx85

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4 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Yeah it's just fun to look at. I'm not taking its solution seriously, however it does seem to fit the model consensus. 

Yeah, I mean, the track is reasonable. And the NAM3km's simulated IR and radar look reasonable. Sure, the sub-900 pressure is probably overkill, but it's not like it wouldn't be unexpected if it happened. However, I will say the forecast soundings on the right flank are...umm...well you know.

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8 minutes ago, PSLwx said:

NHC's 11 am disco noted that the HFIP corrected consensus HCCA has been performing 
very well during Irma. Is that available anywhere?

Not that I'm aware of.

HCCA - HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach model ( more )

Public access restricted due to agreement with the data provider.

Cycle Frequency: 6 hr (120 hr)
Parameters forecast: Track and Intensity

Consensus Model Methods: Positive/negative weighting coefficients; better performing models receive large weight
Ensemble Consenus Members (for 2017): AEMI / AVNI / CTCI / DSHP / EGRI / EMNI / EMXI / HWFI / LGEM
 
(abbreviations are GFS Ensemble Mean/GFS/Navy COAMPS/SHIPS Decay/UKMET/ECMWF Ensemble Mean/ECMWF/HWRF/LGEM (intensity model))
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3 minutes ago, Blazinator said:

Thanks for posting I was about to do the same to see if anyone knew what the cause might be?  Can't recall seeing something just like that in the past and I'm not sure what to make of it.  

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1 minute ago, OUGrad05 said:

Thanks for posting I was about to do the same to see if anyone knew what the cause might be?  Can't recall seeing something just like that in the past and I'm not sure what to make of it.  

Looks like it blew off an updraft in the southern eyewall. Maybe indicative of a wee bit of shear?

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5 minutes ago, Blazinator said:

Looks like it blew off an updraft in the southern eyewall. Maybe indicative of a wee bit of shear?

Looks like some shear I agree, but would have to be reasonably strong I would think to get through the core like that, the rest of the structure remains pretty solid without other shearing evidence in the core.  

Edit: blowing my loop up to full screen it does look like maybe there is some shear on the SW side of the storm that's impacting the core a bit. 

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For those who are interested, here's a crude plot of Irma's forecast path (NHC's 11 am advisory) through a box where the Labor Day Hurricane (1935) and Andrew (1992) rapidly intensified and then maintained their peak intensity. What's relevant is Irma's path over water. The portion of land enclosed in the box should be excluded, as this was a quick sketch for purposes of illustration, only.

AndrewLaborDayHurricane.jpg

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local Met just said a fair chance Tampa area wouldnt even get any rain from Irma and just a litle wind, that seems like an insanely false sense of security still 3 days out. With a storm this big even with an east coast landfall the west coast will still feel affects correct?


Yeah I have family that got out of Tampa under the "better safe than sorry" rule. I wouldn't want to risk it, given the nature of the beast that is approaching.
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1 minute ago, dbullsfan said:

local Met just said a fair chance Tampa area wouldnt even get any rain from Irma and just a litle wind, that seems like an insanely false sense of security still 3 days out. With a storm this big even with an east coast landfall the west coast will still feel affects correct?

degreed met? many on local TV are not and thus not qualified to speculate beyond what the NHC is advising, Tampa residents should pay attention to the NHC and be prepared to act if a watch is issued for the west FL coast

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5 minutes ago, dbullsfan said:

local Met just said a fair chance Tampa area wouldnt even get any rain from Irma and just a litle wind, that seems like an insanely false sense of security still 3 days out. With a storm this big even with an east coast landfall the west coast will still feel affects correct?

Pinellas county (west of Tampa) is currently voting on mandatory evacuations starting tomorrow for people in coastal locations. So, the met may be irresponsible, but county officials are taking this seriously.

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1 minute ago, dbullsfan said:

local Met just said a fair chance Tampa area wouldnt even get any rain from Irma and just a litle wind, that seems like an insanely false sense of security still 3 days out. With a storm this big even with an east coast landfall the west coast will still feel affects correct?

The forecaster in question almost certainly is basing his/her forecast solely on the 0z GFS which showed 0.06" of rain for Tampa from 9/10 12z-9/11 12z. The forecaster likely had not seen the 6z run (0.36") or 0z ECMWF (2.05"). The ECMWF has been verifying best in terms of Irma's track, at least so far.

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1 minute ago, NJwx85 said:

Tampa is most certainly going to see impacts from Irma, especially if the more Westerly tracks verify. We're not talking about a small compact storm like Charley, picture this more like Katrina where the effects were felt well away from the center.

It's irresponsible for them to suggest that Tampa might not even get rain without letting folks know that it's only a slight chance as explaining that this all could still end up on their doorstep.   I didn't see the broadcast in question but I can't believe a professional would even go there at this point.

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1 minute ago, Buddy1987 said:

A met can correct me if I am wrong, but the GFS through 30 honestly looks very similar to its 6Z counterpart. No interaction with Cuba as of right now. 

Yes, a touch slower and maybe a hair further south, but not that much difference.

EDIT: Whoops, didn't see the "met can correct me" part -- I certainly ain't one.

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1 minute ago, Polka1 said:

It's irresponsible for them to suggest that Tampa might not even get rain without letting folks know that it's only a slight chance as explaining that this all could still end up on their doorstep.   I didn't see the broadcast in question but I can't believe a professional would even go there at this point.

I'm not surprised. We had people here downplaying Harvey, especially the rainfall aspect, even as the system made landfall.

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Just now, NJwx85 said:

Irma is a tick further South because the trough is a hair less deep, thus a more Southerly or Westerly track. That's terrible news for South Florida and Florida in general. It also keeps Irma away from the shear axis to the North longer.

Looks like the GFS is coming in line with the Euro

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