Bluescat1 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 9 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: Irma's interaction with Hispaniola and Cuba, even as it remains offshore, may well contribute to some weakening. A lot of the guidance shows re-intensification as it nears Florida, so we'll see what happens. That's what happened with Andrew. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 3 minutes ago, OUGrad05 said: NAM is gonna NAM...it struggles with TCs...I wouldn't get too hung up on the NAM at this point. It's solutions will trend toward the Euro and/or GFS with time. Yeah, wouldn't even look at it, I remember a couple years ago it had Hurricane Joaquin hitting the USA 12 hours prior to the event when every single other model had figured out it was going OTS. It is not worth looking at IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 7, 2017 Author Share Posted September 7, 2017 Just for fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McQuackleton Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 11:00 AM AST Thu Sep 7Location: 20.4°N 69.7°WMoving: WNW at 16 mphMin pressure: 921 mbMax sustained: 175 mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adiabatic13 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 1 minute ago, Bluescat1 said: That's what happened with Andrew. actually, Andrew was moving to the W/SW when it made landfall near Homestead, it did not interact in any way with Haiti/DR or Cuba prior to landfall (nor after landfall for that matter) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUGrad05 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: Just for fun That forecast eye is huge but not really out of the question given current structure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 This is why most mets highly advise not to use the NAM for TCs. It really is not designed for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Storm Surge Watch has been issued for the Florida peninsula from Jupiter Inlet southward and around the peninsula to Bonita Beach, including the Florida Keys. A Hurricane Watch has been issued for the Florida peninsula from Jupiter Inlet southward and around the peninsula to Bonita Beach, including the Florida Keys, Lake Okeechobee, and Florida Bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Papa Joe Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 15 minutes ago, KPITSnow said: I would take bastardi with a grain of salt. First off, there is very little precedent for a hurricane strengthening to sub 900 in the Atlantic basin. It has only happened once in this position with the Labor Day storm. Two, bastardi is a known overhyper. edit: obviously it could happen, but I tend to "wait and see" on a scenario that extreme. The thing about strengthening close to S FL is that the Florida Current comes out of the Florida Strait, deep and full of hot water from the GOM. Since it is a current, Irma could stop all forward motion, and the current would continue delivering hot water to the storm. The FLorida Current, IMHO, is why '35 and Andrew spun up to Cat 5 before landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 7 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: ~2500' feet up. Some of the taller buildings in Miami are around 700'. 925mb isn't a finite level of height, same with any other pressure level. If the surface pressure of the storm at center location is less than 925mb than the 925 mb level intersects the ground just outside of center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 northern islands back to a hurricane watch due to Jose, very unfortunate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 7, 2017 Author Share Posted September 7, 2017 1 minute ago, Stebo said: 925mb isn't a finite level of height, same with any other pressure level. If the surface pressure of the storm at center location is less than 925mb than the 925 mb level intersects the ground just outside of center. Thanks, so in other words if Irma is sub 925mb then what's listed as 925mb is actually the surface? Learn something new everyday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rickg2 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 IIRC Andrew strengthened over the everglades. Does anyone else remember seeing that? Andrew was upgraded to a cat 5 after reevaluation. Also my family survived Andrew in Homestead. I remember seeing the pictures of the devastation . Incredible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Just now, NJwx85 said: Thanks, so in other words if Irma is sub 925mb then what's listed as 925mb is actually the surface? Learn something new everyday. At small points within the storm, not the entire storm itself... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McQuackleton Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Latest guidance. NHC seems to be closing in on a south FL landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 7, 2017 Author Share Posted September 7, 2017 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: This is why most mets highly advise not to use the NAM for TCs. It really is not designed for them. Yeah it's just fun to look at. I'm not taking its solution seriously, however it does seem to fit the model consensus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 7, 2017 Author Share Posted September 7, 2017 Just now, Stebo said: At small points within the storm, not the entire storm itself... Thanks for the explanation. I'm guessing that the deeper the system gets under 925mb, the more forecasted 925mb winds that are brought down to the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: Thanks for the explanation. I'm guessing that the deeper the system gets under 925mb, the more forecasted 925mb winds that are brought down to the surface. Yes as the area would be larger, we are still talking about very small areas here though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 4 minutes ago, Rickg2 said: IIRC Andrew strengthened over the everglades. Does anyone else remember seeing that? Andrew was upgraded to a cat 5 after reevaluation. Also my family survived Andrew in Homestead. I remember seeing the pictures of the devastation . Incredible. Here's the paper that was the basis for Andrew's reclassification: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/04landsea.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Surge Watch now in effect as of 11 am - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adiabatic13 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Irma will be experiencing her diurnal max tonight at about the same time that she is at her furthest point from land between Haiti and Cuba, this is also prior to when any significant shear is forecast to begin impacting her circulation and well into the rocket fuel-esque TCHP region...for all of these reasons, tonight's intensity trend should be a pretty good indicator of her potential to max out below 900mb, in other words, she should start intensifying on her way to record low pressure this evening if she's going to break records later in the Florida straits Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Guidance is really hammering the idea of strengthening in the Florida straits while at the same time Irma will be getting larger. Yes winds may lower but the overall storm will get more powerful with devastating storm surge potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Hurricane Watch issued for S. Florida and the Keys - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Just now, SnoSki14 said: Guidance is really hammering the idea of strengthening in the Florida straits while at the same time Irma will be getting larger. Yes winds may lower but the overall storm will get more powerful with devastating storm surge potential. One of my concerns has been that we are just coming out of a full moon so the tides will be astronomically high as it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSLwx Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 NHC's 11 am disco noted that the HFIP corrected consensus HCCA has been performing very well during Irma. Is that available anywhere? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 4 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Yeah it's just fun to look at. I'm not taking its solution seriously, however it does seem to fit the model consensus. Yeah, I mean, the track is reasonable. And the NAM3km's simulated IR and radar look reasonable. Sure, the sub-900 pressure is probably overkill, but it's not like it wouldn't be unexpected if it happened. However, I will say the forecast soundings on the right flank are...umm...well you know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
emblaze2 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Interesting little "spike" rotating around the eye at upper levels. http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop.asp?data_folder=goes-16/mesoscale_01_band_02_sector_05&width=1000&height=1000&number_of_images_to_display=40&loop_speed_ms=80 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 8 minutes ago, PSLwx said: NHC's 11 am disco noted that the HFIP corrected consensus HCCA has been performing very well during Irma. Is that available anywhere? Not that I'm aware of. HCCA - HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach model ( more ) Public access restricted due to agreement with the data provider. Cycle Frequency: 6 hr (120 hr) Parameters forecast: Track and Intensity Consensus Model Methods: Positive/negative weighting coefficients; better performing models receive large weight Ensemble Consenus Members (for 2017): AEMI / AVNI / CTCI / DSHP / EGRI / EMNI / EMXI / HWFI / LGEM (abbreviations are GFS Ensemble Mean/GFS/Navy COAMPS/SHIPS Decay/UKMET/ECMWF Ensemble Mean/ECMWF/HWRF/LGEM (intensity model)) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUGrad05 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 3 minutes ago, Blazinator said: Interesting little "spike" rotating around the eye at upper levels. http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop.asp?data_folder=goes-16/mesoscale_01_band_02_sector_05&width=1000&height=1000&number_of_images_to_display=40&loop_speed_ms=80 Thanks for posting I was about to do the same to see if anyone knew what the cause might be? Can't recall seeing something just like that in the past and I'm not sure what to make of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McQuackleton Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 With the storm now in the 3 day window of SE FL, I'm sure it can wobble to the West or East just a little bit in the next day or so, but does anyone have a graphic showing the latest Euro and GFS as to where the eye is near South FL? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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