The Blizzard of the Ides, 2017 ...observation time

[dryslot]

11 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

I can't believe how the pack is pure cement. I'm not sure I've ever seen anything like it. 

Up here it wasn't wet but had the texture of beach sand, It was a b**ch to clean and heard that from many that plow for a living that they got stuck numerous times

[HIPPYVALLEY]

 It's pretty amazing to still have blowing snow two days after a March storm.   Cold. 

[Hambone]

Yesterday was the toughest cleanup I've had in 63 years.  I tried going out Tuesday around 4 and again about 6 but the wind was simply blowing too hard to do anything safely.  Our driveway is 200 yards long through choke cherry trees and oaks.  We had a number of branches down.  It took me over 5 hours to do a job that normally takes a little over an hour.... my back is reminding me of that today.  Thickest ice crust ever.

[CoolMike]

1 hour ago, Hazey said:

I just went through gusts to 68mph the other night and barely saw a twig broken. You got sally trees...lol

I'm wondering if a few of those trees aren't sick or blighted.

[tamarack]

Ski heaven man. Looks like that Vday 7 analog was pretty good 

It was freakishly good at my place:

Feb. 14, 2007....16....3....1.45"...13.0"....21"   (Was 9" the day before.)
Feb. 15, 2007....17....1....0.35"....2.5".....21"

Mar. 14, 2017....22....7....1.90"...14.0"....33"    (Was 22" the day before.)
Mar. 15, 2017....31...16...0.22......1.5"....33"

Precisely the same snow, almost the same for each day, both were low ratio, and the temp difference is entirely due to the season.  The two Feb. days averaged -7.5F compared to my averages; the two in March, -9.1F.  VD-07 was windy, but probably 10 mph less so than this week's storm.

I bet NH could probably eliminate like 95% of their winter time outages by culling the white pine population entirely.

Good for blowdown, not so much for ice.  In the 1/98 catastrophe, the worst breakage was in hardwoods, and much the worse damage to utilities.  Hardwoods often grow with a lean as they seek the best sunlight.  They also have upward reaching branches (unless they're pin oak) so that ice bending actually increases the available surface for accretion.  Pines, like all conifers, grow away from gravity, thus straight up unless tipped by damage or soil movement.  Their branches are horizontal (pines) or somewhat downward (spruce and fir), so bending lowers their exposure to accretion.  White pines may have some branches pointing upward.  Around our Gardiner home, those branches were pretty much destroyed in '98, while the normal-angle limbs were mostly retained.  I don't recall seeing a single white pine that snapped completely, just loads of limb loss, sometimes in a cascade as upper limbs failed and then cleaned off the ones below.  I saw many hardwoods with bole failure, just like breaking a pencil.

[met_fan]

[Cold Miser]

3 hours ago, MetHerb said:

I went out about the same time and was able to slice right through it.  I had some more clearing yesterday and I was glad I did what I did when I did.

The key to avoid having a giant mountain at the end of the driveway twice is to clear the area in front of your driveway and then to the left of it.  That way when the plow comes, it leaves all the snow it would normally leave in your driveway there.  I've been doing that for years and never have more than a few inches across my drive way.  I did that Tuesday and was able to just drive out in the morning and clear the little bit that was left when I came home.

Yup. I was just telling someone about this today.  The key is getting there before the plow does.

[Cold Miser]

3 hours ago, eekuasepinniW said:

I take it you don't have white pine there?  It's sometimes hard to believe they ever live long enough to reach the enormous sizes that they get to.

I bet NH could probably eliminate like 95% of their winter time outages by culling the white pine population entirely.

But they make epic roaring in the winter, and pleasant swooshing in the summer, so I love them.

Some serious damage.
Do you know how widespread that was, confined to one small area or spread out around the region?

White Pines are awesome.  Love that sound in the summer.

[nzucker]

4 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm so pissed....I had that band JUST too far east.

You busted pretty badly like the rest of us. Your 12-20" in E LI verified as 1-3"; even NYC only had 8" which was in the 18-24" on your map. BOS was more like 8-12", not 12-20"...

No one realized how far west this would get. The best totals were from Binghamton to Utica along I-88. Mixing cut down everything for the major cities/coastal areas.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, nzucker said:

You busted pretty badly like the rest of us. Your 12-20" in E LI verified as 1-3"; even NYC only had 8" which was in the 18-24" on your map. BOS was more like 8-12", not 12-20"...

No one realized how far west this would get. The best totals were from Binghamton to Utica along I-88. Mixing cut down everything for the major cities/coastal areas.

You were giving the NYC weenies crap in the morning and didn't accept that west trend., hoping snow up past your socks.  How'd that work out? 

[Ginx snewx]

If someone took the Valentines day 07 analog and just beefed up snow just off the coast they would have nailed this storm

[nzucker]

11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

You were giving the NYC weenies crap in the morning and didn't accept that west trend., hoping snow up past your socks.  How'd that work out? 

I ended up with 13-14" at my house in southern Westchester. Just a few miles north had 16-20". It wasn't a complete bust for areas from 96th Street north...I was working on 116th St yesterday and there was an easy 10". 

I admit I didn't see the second changeover happening. Once we flashed back to snow around 10am, I thought we would continue to pile it up instead of mixing more. Pretty much everyone forecasted too high amounts east and too low amounts west, from the NWS to DT to Ray.

My point on the forum was that NYC weenies should not consider an 8-12" storm a bust in mid-March. This was the biggest March event since at least 2009, maybe 1993. People should appreciate what they are getting and realize it was still great for the time of year. My street in the Bronx has massive snowbanks and there has been zero melting.

[Typhoon Tip]

Another thing that (I feel) complicated matters was that the Rosby wave length of the western PNAP ridge and the east trough couplet was anomalously long. It was too long for the more ideal translation pathway of the mid level vortex features, ..which I am sure under some/certain circumstances that can transpire, but ...it may lend to questioning matters here.  A lot of model cycles tried to evolve the 700 and 500's under Long Island, while the western N/A ridge axis was still slightly west of the MN/Dakotas climo favored region - that is a rarer configuration..

The GFS was closing the 500 mb surface farther NW than the other global runs pretty persistently (...as was the NAM). ...meanwhile, the GFS was attempting to maintain a deeper surface reflection unusually displaced SE of said features and their attending jet fields - one run was out near the benchmark with a central closed mid level axis centered over Watertown NY. It's vertical structure was going to have to be exceptionally tilted to maintain that.

At the same time... there was a negative deviation cold air mass anomaly in place, and that wasn't helping storm track.. The models were charged with managing BL inhibition limiting cyclonic curvature, at the same time the q-v forcing associated with jet structures passed over and west of that lower level cold denser air. Somewhat of a tilted system was likely to happen - tilted systems have weaker banding and more shredding.  Throw in an anomalous southern PWAT transport and convection and it was a powdered bust just at water -

[The 4 Seasons]

4 hours ago, MetHerb said:

I went out about the same time and was able to slice right through it.  I had some more clearing yesterday and I was glad I did what I did when I did.

The key to avoid having a giant mountain at the end of the driveway twice is to clear the area in front of your driveway and then to the left of it.  That way when the plow comes, it leaves all the snow it would normally leave in your driveway there.  I've been doing that for years and never have more than a few inches across my drive way.  I did that Tuesday and was able to just drive out in the morning and clear the little bit that was left when I came home.

I've thought about that before and even done it...sounds good in theory but never seems to actually work. The plow just accumulates all the snow from the whole street run and still manages to push it up against the driveway, i would have to do a ton of clearing in the street for it to work, and i live in a coldesac so you never know which way the plow is going to come from or push the snow to. I've tried it...but thanks for the tip though

[CoastalWx]

Much less snow at my parents house. There was a noticeable difference SE of Hanover. A lot of the snow is washed away. 

[ORH_wxman]

8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Much less snow at my parents house. There was a noticeable difference SE of Hanover. A lot of the snow is washed away. 

Temps spiked pretty warm there I'd bet, which did a number on the snow down there...the low traveled over SE MA, so there was some weak warm sectoring.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

 I was driving around the lower Valley today and nobody down there should be bitching about this storm.

 There is easily more than the foot or so we had up in Greenfield. Westfield and Easthampton easily had 15"+

[Sugarloaf1989]

3 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

 I was driving around the lower Valley today and nobody down there should be bitching about this storm.

 There is easily more than the foot or so we had up in Greenfield. Westfield and Easthampton easily had 15"+

Not as much from Northampton down to Springfield. Brattleboro seemed to have the same snow depth as my area.

[Cold Miser]

Big, heavy, droopy and white.

[mreaves]

1 hour ago, The 4 Seasons said:

I've thought about that before and even done it...sounds good in theory but never seems to actually work. The plow just accumulates all the snow from the whole street run and still manages to push it up against the driveway, i would have to do a ton of clearing in the street for it to work, and i live in a coldesac so you never know which way the plow is going to come from or push the snow to. I've tried it...but thanks for the tip though

You should try wearing long johns for that. 

[eyewall]

A few more shots not far from Smuggs where 40"+ reports came in:

 

[Ginx snewx]

33 minutes ago, Cold Miser said:

Big, heavy, droopy and white.

i'd love to see a time lapse on that especially if someone opens that door and a massive slide hits them

[CoastalWx]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Temps spiked pretty warm there I'd bet, which did a number on the snow down there...the low traveled over SE MA, so there was some weak warm sectoring.

Yeah probably it. They had a monsoon at the height of it. Lots of grass showing where the sun hit it vs home. 

[Ginx snewx]

Oh look its dumping at Stowe again

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Yeah probably it. They had a monsoon at the height of it. Lots of grass showing where the sun hit it vs home. 

Booby was near 50

[eekuasepinniW]

3 hours ago, Cold Miser said:

Some serious damage.
Do you know how widespread that was, confined to one small area or spread out around the region?

White Pines are awesome.  Love that sound in the summer.

I'd call it localized patches around routes 109, 107, and 106 inside a broader area of elevated wind.  Mostly contained in a box from Moultonborough to Franklin to Pittsfield to Farmington to Ossipee.  There was another area by the seacoast, but wind isn't quite as rare there.

[Hoth]

23 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Oh look its dumping at Stowe again

Friend has a season pass up there, but he's going to Alta this weekend. I said, why bother!

[eyewall]

Just now, Hoth said:

Friend has a season pass up there, but he's going to Alta this weekend. I said, why bother!

I will be skiing there tomorrow. 

[OceanStWx]

12 hours ago, eekuasepinniW said:

I take it you don't have white pine there?  It's sometimes hard to believe they ever live long enough to reach the enormous sizes that they get to.

I bet NH could probably eliminate like 95% of their winter time outages by culling the white pine population entirely.

But they make epic roaring in the winter, and pleasant swooshing in the summer, so I love them.

I do like how you can tell just how windy it is by listening the pines. 

[ncforecaster89]

CHASE RECOUNT:

Hi everyone!

Let me begin by congratulating EACH one of you who got to experience a very memorable storm; especially those in the areas that have suffered through a relative significant big storm drought. 

For me, this will be remembered as a "what could've been" event.  Unlike the previous chase I undertook (back on February 8-9), on a moments notice, I had prepared well in advance for a prospective HECS event.  I had cleared my work schedule for a full week, reserved a rental SUV, planned to arrive in the Stamford, CT area by Monday morning (24 hours ahead of the storm), etc.  Unfortunately, I got a text late on Thursday night informing me that my mother's mother had passed away, and the funeral would take place late on Monday afternoon (of which my mom requested I be a pallbearer).  As a result of these unexpected circumstances, I wasn't able to depart Wilmington, NC until after 830 pm Monday night.

With the exceptionally late departure, my wife felt strongly I should skip this particular chase (even moreso after the fact; fun times!).   Being that the models still suggested a HECS was still a legitimate possibility, I most certainly didn't want to take a chance to miss out on the most extreme probabilities!  Albeit, there were also definite signs pointing to what actually occurred.  Thus, I left Wilmington in torrential downpours that followed me up the coast to the Richmond, VA vicinity, where my trip was further plagued by heavy sleet up into the NYC area.  Instead of a typical 10 hour drive, I didn't arrive in this general locality until around 10 am on Tuesday morning (13.5 hour trip).  

At this time, I was experiencing an incredible sleet storm!  I faced a difficult choice, do I attempt a long drive to the SNE coastal areas for 60-80 mph winds and dramatic flooding somewhere between Hyannis, MA to Portland, ME, drive further N into the Binghamton, N.Y. area where the CCB appeared to be setting up, or maybe somewhere in between that could still verify blizzard conditions (like near Lawerence or Worcester, MA)?  Before I made this critical decision, I became very sick with a bad stomach virus.   So bad that I couldn't keep my head up...much less drive in that condition. 

A couple hours thereafter, I determinedly headed NE towards Lawerence when I was stopped abruptly by an @#%hole of a cop, who pulled me for driving 38 mph (as they had implemented a 35 mph speed limit on the Interstate).  Holding me up an additional thirty costly minutes, literally,  with a ticket of $95 and a summons to appear in court for "careless driving"...this, combined with the poor road conditions, ensured I wouldn't make it even to Worcester before the peak conditions had passed.   

Still miserably sick, extremely frustrated, and discouraged, I still wanted to salvage as much of the event as possible.   Ultimately, I made it up to Albany N.Y. before heading back a little S to Coxsackie, N.Y. where I concluded the documentation of this major storm.  

Due to all the aforementioned, I didn't film much or took any pics until I got towards Albany, as I was battling the illness that was so debilitating.  Nor did I post at all in the forum until now.  

The highlights of the event consisted of blizzard conditions observed in the general Waterbury, CT/Windsor Locks, CT area and points NW towards Albany, NY.  Although I observed impressive snowfall rates, the heaviest sleet I've ever seen, and strong winds, the conditions I personally experienced fell short of the February 9th and 13th blizzard events, respectively.    

In summary, all of the aforestated circumstances combined to produce a blizzard of disappointment, rather than the HECS event I had hoped to document.  That aside, I'm most thankful so many in this community got to experience a truly epic storm, themselves!  There will be other MECS' in the future, and I look forward to witnessing and documenting each one when they materialize!  

Lastly, I would be remiss if I didn't once again convey my deep appreciation to ALL of you who have offered advice, encouragement, and the like, as I undertook 5 different significant storm chase events (3 blizzards), from December 29, 2016 through March 16, 2017, in your region of the country!

P.S. It's exceedingly likely I won't attempt another extreme storm chase until this upcoming hurricane season.  If you like, live first-hand accounts and pics of past events I've covered, as well as all upcoming events...can be found on my Twitter account at tbrite89.   Between now and hurricane season, I will be working on editing all of the big winter storm events I've documented dating back to March 26, 2014 in Chatham, MA.  Time permitting, I hope to do the same for the 20+ hurricanes I've documented on film, as well, dating back to August 3, 2004.