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Typhoon Tip

The Blizzard of the Ides, 2017 ...observation time

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I'm singularly impressed to see blizzard warnings sprawled out over a truly mammoth geographical area, as that which encompasses virtually everywhere.  Particularly ...farther inland than ~ 25 miles where BL resistance is typically tough to get wind velocities sufficient for criteria.  Nevertheless, I'm equally astounded at at these QPF numbers unilaterally put out by the pantheon of tools. 

Some very unique circumstances seem to have come (or are about to come...) together to perhaps achieve something rare.

So... with no further ado, let the party begin!

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Well, checking my local weather station, it has my wind direction as SW...I would bet the low goes right over the top of me...

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I live on a hill with maybe 100' of elevation right next to the pike.  Based on an unscientific consensus of everything posted, accounting for trend and weenie factor, it sounds as if I'm looking at an extremely heavy burst in the morning resulting in 9-12" increasingly cementlike in formation, with giant dollar-sized flakes shortly before a changeover to sleet and drizzle early afternoon as we hit a potential dry spot, then the cold air moves in late with 1-2" of backlash flurries and squals as we get knicked by the upper level.  Then we are back to deep winter for a few more days.  

Does that about sum it up?

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thank god finally!

a baby fresh new thread.

my eyes are killing me from trying to keep up!

so typhoon...

if the phase is meh why such a increase in qpf?

Im seriously just trying to learn.

thanks

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6 minutes ago, justaroofer said:

thank god finally!

a baby fresh new thread.

my eyes are killing me from trying to keep up!

so typhoon...

if the phase is meh why such a increase in qpf?

Im seriously just trying to learn.

thanks

Well… for starters I never said the phase was meh? 

 I said it was less than pure meaning it's only partial.  

The mechanics of phasing is very complex; in this case we see the southern stream ejected out ahead of the northern stream trough axis by considerable margin before the upper air support collapses/ loses identity basically absorbed at that point into the curvature of the northern stream trough.  A purer formed phase would have that all take place sooner and then the low stalls farther south along the coast, and would also linger with more intensity longer because it would  benefit from both the instability delivered by the northern stream trough,  but the wind max associated with that flowing around the eastern arc 

We see the low get stranded sort of down East Maine around in that area and then starts to fill out in time, not getting that benefit as discussed.

having said all that the southern component system is strong anyway. It doesn't really need to get a kickback from the northern stream to become powerful. As to the reason why QPF is large well because look at where it's coming from? It's coming from a source area that has dense pwat. 

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4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Well… for starters I never said the phase was meh? 

so if I understand, the purest phase opportunity beyond possibile.. meaning it cant and wont ever completely phase, because that upper air support will have dissipated and eventually is absorbed in the northern stream

 I said it was less than pure meaning it's only partial.  

The mechanics of phasing is very complex; in this case we see the southern stream ejected out ahead of the northern stream trough axis by considerable margin before the upper air support collapses/ loses identity basically absorbed at that point into the curvature of the northern stream trough.  A purer formed phase would have that all take place sooner and then the low stalls farther south along the coast, and would also linger with more intensity longer because it would  benefit from both the instability delivered by the northern stream trough,  but the wind max associated with that flowing around the eastern arc 

We see the low get stranded sort of down East Maine around in that area and then starts to fill out in time, not getting that benefit as discussed.

having said all that the southern component system is strong anyway. It doesn't really need to get a kickback from the northern stream to become powerful. As to the reason why QPF is large well because look at where it's coming from? It's coming from a source area that has dense pwat. 

Thank you Typhoon.

I always thought "Meh" more or less meant average or slightly below avg. My bad.

I was having difficulty understanding if the phase was eventually going to happen further north and east like in Nova Scotia or something.

Now that you have explained, I think your saying that the time and place for that perfect phase is becoming or is already old news. That

the upper air support is collapsing, but it will not have done so completely without the low pressure system having stole a little of the energy before the northern stream takes off with the support?

I get the qpf and stream and where its coming from but I guess I hadn't sensed any of the mets feeling that that could bring this thing back up to a top 10? or is it five or maybe 15 storm.

I feel like I might get a F for that interpretation...

seriously

thanks for trying to help me learn 

i'm not the quickest learner  but I never give up

ill get better

 

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Surprised to see a few weenie flakes falling as we speak. Disappointed by the trends on the past 24 hrs here, but still looking forward to a few hours of decent fun page in the AM before the taint arrives

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I went out to move my car. The dry cold aroma to the air was gone...it was softer on the nostrils and smelled like spring. That speaks volumes about the rain snow line. I'm going to mix and change over pretty fast here in the plymouth area

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13 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Congrats on moving to a great weenie spot.

Thank you, Berg.  I lived the weenie spot of the Piedmont, we'll see if I can repeat the magic here.  

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