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March 14/15 W & NNE weenies jumping from the Tobin Coastal Storm Discussion

powderfreak

By powderfreak,
in New England

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
Just now, White Rain said:

The QPF the NAM prints out should show higher snow amounts in ORH county if it is all snow. It is clearly implying some mixing. Not sure how realistic that is with a track like it has.

The 3 hourly soundings didn't show any mixing at ORH, but there's some layers that get to like -1 or -2C...so if it was kuchera map, they would bring amounts down a bit if it gets close like that. I really wouldn't worry about the clown maps even though people love to look at them.

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eyewall

eyewall

Posted
Posted

If you took 1.5 inches of QPF the NAM gives us along with the forecast 12:1 ratios we could see 16-20 if that verified. Obviously I am not going to take 1 model run and go with it but I think we are solid in verifying double digits here unless a shadow screw job ensues that isn't being picked up. Either way I would still think there would be a period of CPV channeling when the fluff factor is in effect.

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Greg

Greg

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The 3 hourly soundings didn't show any mixing at ORH, but there's some layers that get to like -1 or -2C...so if it was kuchera map, they would bring amounts down a bit if it gets close like that. I really wouldn't worry about the clown maps even though people love to look at them.

The NAM is acting strange with this storm.  Usual a tight temp profile and track like that over Nan Bay to Cape Elbow would actually would be better for us.  So I'm not too sure what to make of this.  Can't wait to see how the 12Z GFS behaves.

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dryslot

dryslot

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Greg said:

The NAM is acting strange with this storm.  Usual a tight temp profile and track like that over Nan Bay to Cape Elbow would actually would be better for us.  So I'm not too sure what to make of this.  Can't wait to see how the 12Z GFS behaves.

I bet it tics west

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DomNH

DomNH

Posted
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I think this is a pretty easy 12-20'' final call for those that stay all snow N CT to ORH to LWM and west. I don't think slight east or west ticks is going to change that range. And the NAM is probably on crack with widespread 2-2.5'' of QPF. 

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wxsniss

wxsniss

Posted
Posted
Just now, ORH_wxman said:

I'm not convinced they will yet.

Interesting. NAM/RGEM (I know RGEM a little out of it's range) are clustering pretty tight and change Boston over.

Need a last night's Euro track to keep it all snow, but given the over-amping trends I'm not confident.

My hope is that there is still some mishandling of the vorticity off New Jersey, and that little blip of 2nd further east low on NAM at hr 33 is a hint of ticking back east, but I'm not confident.

12z RGEM will be big.

 

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