March 14/15 W & NNE weenies jumping from the Tobin Coastal Storm Discussion

[moneypitmike]

3 minutes ago, weathafella said:

GFS keeps me snow and brings the low out over ACK or elbow.

 

More like the shoulder. 

[Baroclinic Zone]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

GFS being pretty stubborn through 24 hours...not really west...maybe like a razor width. It's stronger though.

Was gonna say looks pretty damn close at 5h.  You cans ee why we have these "warmer" solutions over the last 12-18hr though.  That lead s/w was at one time escaping E further pushing the baroclinic zone a bit E.  Now they are drilling that s/w pretty much due N into SNE.

[dryslot]

3 minutes ago, SR Airglow said:

It actually looked a tick east to me at 30. Basically an all snow solution BOS-PVD corridor and NW.

Maybe not even that, Noise really,

[BRSno]

12z GFS kinda looks like BOX's map

[powderfreak]

Analogs...

Valentines Day 2007 number 1

March 1993 number 3

[moneypitmike]

TT GFS snowmap loves Kevin.

[J Paul Gordon]

1 minute ago, subdude said:

Dry Slot Central. 

Not time for tears yet. GFS looks good

[SlantStickers Anonymous]

4 minutes ago, BRSno said:

GFS would be the best case scenario at this point, not that it adds much confidence since it seems to always be late to the game. 

How much weight do we put on ensembles at this point? 

Not much at this range. 

[eyewall]

1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

Analogs...

Valentines Day 2007 number 1

March 1993 number 3

Vday 2007 is one they talk about in BTV. I wasn't here but I heard it was a big one.

[WinterWolf]

I mean if the GFS is still lost at this point...then it just really sucks...I mean we are about 15 hours out at this point.

[powderfreak]

GFS will be too low with QPF up here.

H7 low closed off over Litchfield County, CT and heads towards like CON.... seems light on the moisture in the deeper interior for that track.

[DomNH]

We'll see what the Euro does but I'd prob forecast a track over like FMH to the canal. 

[Greg]

7 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

GFS is right where you want it.  SE bias

True, but the Nam and the RGEM also have a NW bias.

[ORH_wxman]

Ukie is still really amped, but not quite as obnoxious as 00z. Has the 850 low over Newport, RI instead of ginxy's fanny at 00z tomorrow.

[powderfreak]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

I mean if the GFS is still lost at this point...then it just really sucks...I mean we are about 15 hours out at this point.

Lost?

You guys are talking like 50 mile differences in track.  Given the whole scale of the system its not that much off.  Its inside the "ensemble" range of variability.

10 models aren't going to be stacked one on top of the other.  The GFS has made some big changes since yesterday...huge west shift.  It wasn't even snowing up here yesterday on the GFS.

[J Paul Gordon]

I'd like to say I'm gonna take a break from this thread with all its RGEM, dryslot, hi res this-n-that panic, but I'm hooked. 

Like the look of the GFS. Seems pretty stable of late. If the Euro doesn't suddenly run way west, why flip out over anything?

[moneypitmike]

1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

GFS will be too low with QPF up here.

H7 low closed off over Litchfield County, CT and heads towards like CON.... seems light on the moisture in the deeper interior for that track.

Not ideal for me, but close enough.

[ineedsnow]

Omg buried!!! Its coming.. 

[powderfreak]

Just now, Greg said:

True, but the Nam and the RGEM also have a NW bias.

Yup.

Everyone is right where they are supposed to be.

Euro at 00z was between them all and it will probably be again at 12z.

[dryslot]

3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

I mean if the GFS is still lost at this point...then it just really sucks...I mean we are about 15 hours out at this point.

I don't think its lost at this point, That track is well within reason.

 

[dendrite]

2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

GFS will be too low with QPF up here.

H7 low closed off over Litchfield County, CT and heads towards like CON.... seems light on the moisture in the deeper interior for that track.

I think the H7 temps give an idea of where the GFS is placing the best mid-level fronto. Looks like E NY and then up through you into N NH.

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

Lost?

You guys are talking like 50 mile differences in track.  Given the whole scale of the system its not that much off.  Its inside the "ensemble" range of variability.

10 models aren't going to be stacked one on top of the other.  The GFS has made some big changes since yesterday...huge west shift.  It wasn't even snowing up here yesterday on the GFS.

No, No, What I meant was...I'd be inclined to think it's more correct being this close in than the Meso's at this point.   

[SR Airglow]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Ukie is still really amped, but not quite as obnoxious as 00z. Has the 850 low over Newport, RI instead of ginxy's fanny at 00z tomorrow.

Out of curiosity, where do you get the Ukie so early? I thought it was ~11:45 normally so 12:45 now.

[Damage In Tolland]

Yeah we've seen the west moves stop and now slowly trickling east. Gfs staying put and Ukie east are tell tale. Euro should move slightly east based on those.

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, SR Airglow said:

Out of curiosity, where do you get the Ukie so early? I thought it was ~11:45 normally so 12:45 now.

Plymouth state gives you limited maps out to 36 hours. You can really only see 500 and 850.

[powderfreak]

Just now, dryslot said:

I don't think its lost at this point, That track is well within reason.

 

I just looked between the models...including the GFS...and there's about 75 miles worth of spread in track.

That's really nothing in the larger scale of computer weather models.  However, it impacts a huge population on this board so it seems to be much larger than it actually is.

Everything is well within the range of possibilities and aren't as far apart as people think they are.  Its just the sensible weather differences are huge for those inside that 75 mile zone, ha.

[Ginx snewx]

28 minutes ago, weathafella said:

That snow map doesn't match what I'm seeing for mby and Boston on other RGEM printouts.   Which of you weenies messed with the code at Pivotal?

Tropical Tidbits and WXbell are the same, what are you looking at?

[powderfreak]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Yeah we've seen the west moves stop and now slowly trickling east. Gfs staying put and Ukie east are tell tale. Euro should move slightly east based on those.

Yeah, its not like its going up the CT River Valley.  The goal posts are pretty narrow on the whole.

Like geese farts and stuff like that may push it a few miles one way or another.

[TalcottWx]

16 minutes ago, SR Airglow said:

It actually looked a tick east to me at 30. Basically an all snow solution BOS-PVD corridor and NW.

People need to ignore the noise. GFS is a good example why.

[Ginx snewx]

7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Ukie is still really amped, but not quite as obnoxious as 00z. Has the 850 low over Newport, RI instead of ginxy's fanny at 00z tomorrow.

here is my weenies take, tick tock east lock Jan 11