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March 14/15 W & NNE weenies jumping from the Tobin Coastal Storm Discussion


powderfreak

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WPC Winter Wx Discussion

THEN ON MON... THE FORECAST BECOMES QUITE COMPLEX AND VERY CHALLENGING OVER THE ERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. THE SHORT WAVE DIVING THROUGH THE MIDWEST ON SUN PROCEEDS TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST ON MON AND BEGINS TO INDUCE A SURFACE LOW NEAR THE COASTAL CAROLINAS BEFORE SHOWING SIGNS OF INTENSIFYING AND LIFTING NORTHWARD. THIS IS DUE TO A SLIGHT NEG TILT ALOFT OF THIS FEATURE AND THE NEXT POLAR/ARCTIC UPPER TROUGH PLUNGING INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY/GREAT LAKES. DO THE TWO SYSTEMS REMAIN COMPLETELY SEPARATE OR IS THERE ENOUGH PARTIAL PHASING OCCURRING. EITHER WAY... ONE OF THE RARE COASTAL STORMS THIS WINTER COULD VERY WELL IMPACT PARTS OF THE MID-ATL REGION MON AFTN/EVENING INTO TUES MORNING. THE 00Z ECMWF AND GFS APPEAR TO BE CONVERGING ON COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS FROM THE CAROLINA COAST TO THE DELMARVA COAST... AS THE UPPER DYNAMICS CROSS THE APPALACHIANS AND MESHES WITH THE WOUND UP SURFACE SYSTEM ALONG THE COAST. THE RESULTANT SHOULD BE A BURST AND FLOURISH IN PRECIPITATION AND GIVEN THE ANOMALOUS COLD AIR MASS ENTRENCHED OVER THE EAST... IT APPEARS A RATHER SIGNIFICANT LATE WINTER/EARLY SPRING HEAVY WET SNOW EVENT. NOW EVEN THOUGH THE TWO LEADING GLOBAL MODELS HAVE COME TO SOME SORT OF CONSENSUS... THIS REMAINS A HIGHLY FLUID FORECAST GIVEN MULTIPLE STREAMS IN PLAY. THUS WPC QPF AND WINTER WEATHER FORECASTERS WENT EXTREMELY CONSERVATIVE TO INTRODUCE INITIAL HEAVY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS BUT NOT AS EXTREME AS SOME OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS. AT THIS MOMENT THROUGH 12Z TUES... WPC WENT WITH THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS FROM SWRN VA TO ERN PA AND ON THE ERN EXTENT TO INCLUDE THE CORRIDOR OF DC UP TO BWI AND JUST SHY OF PHL... THOUGH THE REST OF THE NORTHEAST WILL GET MORE INVOLVED ON TUES. THUS PTYPE ISSUES COULD BE A MAJOR ISSUE... WITH QUESTIONS ON ATLANTIC ONSHORE FLOW AND SURFACE LOW TRACK. THE BOTTOM LINE IS THE GUIDANCE IS COMING TO A CONSENSUS ON A MAJOR STORM SYSTEM BUT IN QUESTION ARE THE CRITICAL DETAILS AND THIS MAY BE AN ONGOING PROBLEM LEADING RIGHT UP TO THE EVENT. WPC WENT CONSERVATIVE WITH A SOUND INTRODUCTION TO AMOUNTS AND PROBABILITIES.

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2 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

I took a look at the Op 06z GFS and 00z Euro and they look almost identical now.  Goal posts are narrow but subtle upper air changes will make a difference on outcome.

Narrowed, but yeah...still a few days away. We've seen d3 consensus before only to have all of the models continue to do some shifting.

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6 minutes ago, dan11295 said:

When do all the players get onshore? Really need that to allow the models to work out feature strength/interaction

Honestly, you can see shifts right through tomorrow. I think 12z today will at least help confirm the goal post narrowing. It won't be close to final outcome yet though. Some of the energy is way up in the arctic which is notorious for driving models crazy.

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5 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Big snow coming...scooter-cancel.  Your wife and son need you home and you can't be delayed returning.   And let's face it, do you really want to subject yourself to endless pictures of the region with helicopters dropping food ala 78?

Scooter Tuesday morning in Dallas:

 

 

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