March 14/15 W & NNE weenies jumping from the Tobin Coastal Storm Discussion

[Damage In Tolland]

Any met issuing public forecasts should be calling for 1-2 feet as of now 

[powderfreak]

GFS Snow.

[MarkO]

6 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

LOL.

I wouldn't be concerned with your location. But a track 50 miles west and I taint. We're still 72 hours out. Let's just say if there's a concern I don't get a foot it's b/c of possible taint. GFS shows change to rain Cape and Islands.

[MarkO]

1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

GFS Snow.

As I thought!

[weathafella]

10 minutes ago, MarkO said:

Antecedent cold mass is overrated. I also think mid-day storm and track over ACK gives me caution. But what do I know...

If you have a deepening system tightening the thermal structure as depicted you should avoid taint with a system to your right.   If it was your everyday low you'd have worries.   Can we taint?   Of course-but I like our chances with the antecedent and the progged structure based on 70 years of weenieism.

[MarkO]

If I were a betting man (and I am) I'd wager it trends east and colder solution. But I'm not all in at this point, even my location in Lowell. Regardless, it's a solid front end thump. 

[Ginx snewx]

850 daily temps shattered today in ALB GYX CAR. GYX and CAR .2 away from all time March records, now that's antecedent.  

[Baroclinic Zone]

GFS is an omega bomb. Dumps >1" in 6hr.

[dryslot]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

850 daily temps shattered today in ALB GYX CAR. GYX and CAR .2 away from all time March records, now that's antecedent.  

Still 0°F here with winds gusting to 35mph

[40/70 Benchmark]

21 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah this isn't gonna be a 36 hour storm. It's a typical 12-18 hours but it can still produce very large totals because it's coming to the table fully loaded. 

This ....I was telling Scott that early this AM.

[wxsniss]

Seems developing consensus track over or just scraping Cape... intense 12 hour thump and widespread 1ft+... though this has still has some bobbling to do pending better sampling and relative strength / timing of northern stream energy

Friday's 12z Euro depiction was truly historic for eastern SNE but seems on its own at the moment

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This ....I was telling Scott that early this AM.

And I agree. But the speed will prevent truly epic amounts.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

And I agree. But the speed will prevent truly epic amounts.

Yea...I mean, 3'+will be hard to do, but someone sees 30".

[ORH_wxman]

Ukie looks similar to last night. Prob an ACK track or so. 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea...I mean, 3'+will be hard to do, but someone sees 30".

Ill take the under on that for sne.

[dryslot]

12z Ukie

 

[CoastalWx]

Unless this slows it's 12-20 with a weenie band maybe near 24"

[weathafella]

Really narrow goalposts if we toss NAM.  I'm still hedging canal but last nights eps and some of the more recent guidance suggest I move that east to maybe elbow or ACK.

[JC-CT]

ukie precip looks sick at 72

[dryslot]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Unless this slows it's 12-20 with a weenie band maybe near 24"

Violently agree

[weathafella]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Unless this slows it's 12-20 with a weenie band maybe near 24"

Weymouth, MA.  Come home for the cleanup.

[78Blizzard]

Model consensus seems to be over or just E of ACK.

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, weathafella said:

Really narrow goalposts if we toss NAM.  I'm still hedging canal but last nights eps and some of the more recent guidance suggest I move that east to maybe elbow or ACK.

That was my call last night and i will stand by that.

[weatherwiz]

I'm really worried about a large subsidence screw zone setting up somewhere and my main concern is like from south-central MA back into western CT.  Given the degree of upward vertical motion which will be associated with this its only fair to believe there will be an area of significant downward vertical motion as well.  Still a little nervous with regards to how/where the 700mb low forms and tracks (along with 850 low) but the trend seems to be further off to the south and east.  There should be a nice solid swath of impressive amounts (maybe 14''-20'') but don't think this will be a region wide crushing.

[weathafella]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

That was my call last night and i will stand by that.

It's a great track to please the most number of folks.  People on the Cape will experience a little climo bite.

[dan11295]

As has already been mentioned, I think as currently modeled the storm is going too fast to get 2' in SNE.

[rnaude241]

I'd take another tic east. A little worried about tainting issues here in Plymouth. 

[Damage In Tolland]

This will have a relatively large area of 24-30".

Within that area will be 36" amounts. 

Weve seen this time and time again in these 

[dryslot]

3 minutes ago, weathafella said:

It's a great track to please the most number of folks.  People on the Cape will experience a little climo bite.

 

9 hours ago, dryslot said:

Ack over the elbow track, Done.

Yeah, Its had the look with the coastal hug down south.

[SnowHole413]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

This will have a relatively large area of 24-30".

Within that area will be 36" amounts. 

Weve seen this time and time again in these 

I agree, if euro comes in good then I can easily see it. This thing is juicy