Typhoon Tip Posted March 9, 2017 Author Share Posted March 9, 2017 ... forgetting all these details and reasons to throw hands.. the individual GEF members made a HUGE movement, en masse, toward consensus as an unbounded facet. There are some remarkable looking frames in that set from 12 Z ! A few of which are a bit more dramatic than the operational version, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 1 minute ago, OceanStWx said: Probably some convective voodoo in the models too with that southern piece. Hard to separate real from imagined at this lead time. That was a piece of vorticity that was in the GOM at hr 96 that hung back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Just speaking for me, but wouldn't care if it rained here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 9, 2017 Author Share Posted March 9, 2017 5 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Probably some convective voodoo in the models too with that southern piece. Hard to separate real from imagined at this lead time. agreed... that cometary vortex fired off ahead of the main trough axis is a smoking gun for that... I just commented on that myself; that's like the same thing you see in the autumn when a TS gets sucked up into NS by a early season cold snap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 23 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Do the math That map is a little odd considering it gives Albany .5" qpf more than MPM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah was just thinking that and I saw Tip's post too. It does have origins in the Plains though. Yeah, we've seen it before. Starts as something real, then she, I mean the GFS, turns it into something it's not. There is definitely vorticity that emerges off the Carolinas, but then like Tip says a stronger vort max just sort of "pops" NE of the developing surface low. Just goes to show you how long we have to go before we can really start spiking footballs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 2 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: That map is a little odd considering it gives Albany .5" qpf more than MPM? No it looks right...BTV would be the lowest in New England. lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 16 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Oh that ? come on guys - that's a convectively produced satellite vorticy - may as well be a TS zipping on the eastern wall of an autumn trough - Thats exactly what i thought it looked like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 10 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Yeah, we've seen it before. Starts as something real, then she, I mean the GFS, turns it into something it's not. There is definitely vorticity that emerges off the Carolinas, but then like Tip says a stronger vort max just sort of "pops" NE of the developing surface low. Just goes to show you how long we have to go before we can really start spiking footballs. Remember that Feb 2010 NYC MA blizzard that produced the record winds in NH. That was a satellite warm seclusion that had a 955 core. Eck Phil and Messsenger and I stayed up all night tracking it as it made LF over Cape Cod then caused that 90 mph wind in the GOMaine. We watched the low tide in Boston get blown back in. Reminds me of that, as a Met in Maine you probably will have to watch for that if the Euro is right. That night no one was forecasting that and warnings were slow to come out. We were all over it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Remember that Feb 2010 NYC MA blizzard that produced the record winds in NH. That was a satellite warm seclusion that had a 955 core. Eck Phil and Messsenger and I stayed up all night tracking it as it made LF over Cape Cod then caused that 90 mph wind in the GOMaine. We watched the low tide in Boston get blown back in. Reminds me of that, as a Met in Maine you probably will have to watch for that if the Euro is right. That night no one was forecasting that and warnings were slow to come out. We were all over it. It's just an odd evolution verbatim. I would be surprised if it held or ultimately turned out the way the models are showing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 EPS is a beauty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 43 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It's strange with those two s/w's...but if the eastern s/w phased, it's over NYC fanny. Beware too much of a good thing. You have to love these really amped and dynamic opprtunties though. Even if it occluded over NYC--or to our Southwest-- that's still a huge hit for everyone save the SE section of NE. The mechanism isn't currently there to pull this well northwest into upstate NY and ultimately Quebec. Also the H5 trough is moving along at a good clip to the east, so post capture he swings ENE and we CCB. As I see currently see it , the risk for our subforum is highly asymmetric with regards to an ots solution versus an inland runner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Nice to have EPS broaching d7 before 2:30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 4 minutes ago, jbenedet said: You have to love these really amped and dynamic opprtunties though. Even if it occluded over NYC--or to our Southwest-- that's still a huge hit for everyone save the SE section of NE. The mechanism isn't currently there to pull this well northwest into upstate NY and ultimately Quebec. Also the H5 trough is moving along at a good clip to the east, so post capture he swings ENE and we CCB. As I see currently see it , the risk for our subforum is highly asymmetric with regards to an ots solution versus an inland runner. I agree with all of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 37 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Just speaking for me, but wouldn't care if it rained here Lmao, cmon man Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 3 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: Def not DXR...we know the drill. The Euro will have a run or two where it totally goes nuclear and jackpots like W CT up to ALB and everyone back east will panic about another boxing day while powderfreak's post count triples...then it will come back east...Tauntonblizzard will say it looks like garbage the entire time citing the worst model of each suite while ignoring the good runs....Ray will keep talking about how the best banding will be just SE of him and just NW him while he sucks on exhaust, and then complains his way to 17"...moneypitmike will keep pretending he won't get more than a few inches even though every model gives an inch of QPF out to W MA...Jerry will pretend he never posted he was ready for winter to end at the end of February when it was 70F and talk about how this reminds him of March 1956....while tamarack mentions 1956 in NNJ and then makes a reference to a storm that overperformed in March 1984 while he was in Fort Kent, ME. lol that is awesome, gave me a good long laugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 6 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Lmao, cmon man 40 mph gusts and heavy rain? Eh.. I'd rather the 2', than whacking it to a baro reading out of Watertown, NY...but no one cares about my preference, so OT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: 40 mph gusts and heavy rain? Eh.. I'd the 2', than whacking it to a baro reading out of Watertown, NY Oh steve will whack it to any metric...we know that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 2 minutes ago, Whineminster said: lol that is awesome, gave me a good long laugh. We laugh at your ridiculous post this morning lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Just now, CoastalWx said: Oh steve will whack it to any metric...we know that. Canes are really the only aspect of meteorology that I can vicariously enjoy, and just be in awe of the power and science. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Oh steve will whack it to any metric...we know that. NB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 28 minutes ago, weathafella said: EPS is a beauty EPS ten day mean is wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 29 minutes ago, weathafella said: EPS is a beauty 983? Very impressive signal on EPS and GEFS. Also impressed by the consistency of this signal for days and days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 48 minutes ago, powderfreak said: No it looks right...BTV would be the lowest in New England. lol. Lock it in! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Oh steve will whack it to any metric...we know that. Will you SKYPE with Allison having her point the Camera out the window while you smoke the monkey? Lol can you imagine Ray if he was raining while Will and Kevin were getting 4 per hour. The man beast in the shed would be torn to shreds in bouts of anger. There would not be a shred of evidence left of the beast. CSI would spend months investigating the scene. All the while eyeing Ray shaking and stammering in the corner indistinguishable words, all they could make out was ORH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Will you SKYPE with Allison having her point the Camera out the window while you smoke the monkey? Lol can you imagine Ray if he was raining while Will and Kevin were getting 4 per hour. The man beast in the shed would be torn to shreds in bouts of anger. There would not be a shred of evidence left of the beast. CSI would spend months investigating the scene. All the while eyeing Ray shaking and stammering in the corner indistinguishable words, all they could make out was ORH Ray is definitely emotionally invested in this one...he's just laying low in the weeds though until about another 24 hours goes by....but you can sense it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Will you SKYPE with Allison having her point the Camera out the window while you smoke the monkey? Lol can you imagine Ray if he was raining while Will and Kevin were getting 4 per hour. The man beast in the shed would be torn to shreds in bouts of anger. There would not be a shred of evidence left of the beast. CSI would spend months investigating the scene. All the while eyeing Ray shaking and stammering in the corner indistinguishable words, all they could make out was ORH Wouldn't shock me if it were an interior deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Ray is definitely emotionally invested in this one...he's just laying low in the weeds though until about another 24 hours goes by....but you can sense it. He's hiding it with comments like "I don't mind if it rains." That's BS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: He's hiding it with comments like "I don't mind if it rains." That's BS. We know each other like brothers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Its a safety net in case the rug gets pulled out at the last minute and things go south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.