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Model Mayhem VI


Typhoon Tip

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1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

I've been thinking that for a long time...these pieces are far far from being modeled correctly...and as they approach and come into modeling view, the outlook will change for sure...and probably not resemble the bomb that we have all been enjoying seeing the last few days.   Changes abound.

My view is that everyone will be disappointed in the end, because we all got a peek at 36 hours of snow with widespread 2 foot amounts way too early in the modeling cycle.

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14 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

um, I did understand. Not sure you do lol. and My response was just a random thought, I should have put in a new paragraph.

Well semantics aside--I take it to be a positive flag. That's all at this point.

Ensembles can paint a very accurate picture 140 hrs out in a broad and general sense--long wave pattern, blocking etc. "Waiting for the energy to come on shore" is certainly important for getting the details right, but that's not what I'm concerned with right now. You don't need the details to determine whether or not we'll have a good storm nearby to track.

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1 minute ago, dryslot said:

Only place to go is down from there lol.

"What a bust, I didn't get 3 feet. :angry:"

Things like the dueling low pressures will get worked out by the models eventually. You don't usually see twin lows like that in a short time period. For now it appears models want the northern stream to be dominant.

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