bboughton Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 Just now, weathafella said: I'm just going by what popped up on the app. I bet it's legit as they get the feed I presume and we'll all see it shortly. I think it might have been a glitch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mostman Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 5 minutes ago, bboughton said: 18z GFS looks almost identical to 12z to me... what am I missing? Look at Essex county early morning on Monday. More amped up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 2 minutes ago, bboughton said: I think it might have been a glitch. I bet it's legit. We'll know soon enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 28 minutes ago, CarverWX said: Can we believe the 4km NAM. That's looks like best case scenario here. Surprised at how bullish BOX is down here. Personally I'm a bit more toned down than they are by about 20%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 Giddy up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 I have a suspicion that if it 'lulls' ...that's the end, and as this thing wraps up, bombogen legit incarnate, it will do so, so tightly that the CCB mechanics are initially constricted and not spread back west until it the system matures beyond the RI phase of development - ...after which, yeah, if the storm is slowly translating out it may span west briefly before being out of reach. I know this thing's all super romantic and all...but, the base vector of motion is still west to east, and I don't see much evidence of retrograde patterning in this whole ordeal. To correct for this and make me only look wrong in face of clad theoretical application ... (eh hm) would be for this thing to really bomb faster? Seriously, that's plausible, even at 30 or so hour lead, that that the low really takes off more like 50 Mi E of ACY and the punches a whole in the troposphere heading just off the Cape ...which might be some 3 to 6 hours ahead of schedule, but a huge difference maker in actually getting some wickedness in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bboughton Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 3 minutes ago, weathafella said: I bet it's legit. We'll know soon enough. But it looks like they've released all their watches and warnings from the 4pm suite. They issued some blizzard watches but just not over here yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mostman Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 6 minutes ago, weathafella said: I bet it's legit. We'll know soon enough. You aren't the only one: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 THE WAA is the la la lock it up snows tommorrow seems the CF boundardy is a wildcard tommorrow for how far it punches in ...RGEM seems most aggressive with the BL torching (among trusted guidance) Then 3-noon monday morning is gaining confidence for E MA esp NE mass but its still within the realm of just getting a graze so unless that develops EVEN FASTER (further SW deepening) this could sort of be a now cast ( the Monday am snow fall totals) I recall a system in the big winter couple years ago that had a freakish late development to the point may were on the fence 12 hrs out if this was going to happen. Will probably remembers but it ended up going gang busters and rocking E MA with about 3 hrs ob blizzard conditions say 5-8 am or so. Wish i could remember the disco late that nite when they finally gave it all systems go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=box&wwa=blizzard watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 1 minute ago, bboughton said: But it looks like they've released all their watches and warnings from the 4pm suite. They issued some blizzard watches but just not over here yet. They will. Kind of a no brainer not to think Blizzard threshold will not be achieved. Like the past storm numerous locations surpassed and never in watch or warning for blizzard. WSW or Blizzard, either way it's going to rip! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 GFS is the warm outlier here. Goes to +2 to +3C @925 here at 33 hr with 0C line in S NH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 11, 2017 Author Share Posted February 11, 2017 6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I have a suspicion that if it 'lulls' ...that's the end, and as this thing wraps up, bombogen legit incarnate, it will do so, so tightly that the CCB mechanics are initially constricted and not spread back west until it the system matures beyond the RI phase of development - ...after which, yeah, if the storm is slowly translating out it may span west briefly before being out of reach. I know this thing's all super romantic and all...but, the base vector of motion is still west to east, and I don't see much evidence of retrograde patterning in this whole ordeal. To correct for this and make me only look wrong in face of clad theoretical application ... (eh hm) would be for this thing to really bomb faster? Seriously, that's plausible, even at 30 or so hour lead, that that the low really takes off more like 50 Mi E of ACY and the punches a whole in the troposphere heading just off the Cape ...which might be some 3 to 6 hours ahead of schedule, but a huge difference maker in actually getting some wickedness in time. I thought about that too, John. That it could wrap up and perhaps not spread back the love just far enough west as it moves to the east. But, rapid intensification is known to do weird things. If I see a 700mb low closing off nearby,all bets are off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 Giddy up Jeezum. Going big. Not sure where to put it all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I have a suspicion that if it 'lulls' ...that's the end, and as this thing wraps up, bombogen legit incarnate, it will do so, so tightly that the CCB mechanics are initially constricted and not spread back west until it the system matures beyond the RI phase of development - ...after which, yeah, if the storm is slowly translating out it may span west briefly before being out of reach. I know this thing's all super romantic and all...but, the base vector of motion is still west to east, and I don't see much evidence of retrograde patterning in this whole ordeal. To correct for this and make me only look wrong in face of clad theoretical application ... (eh hm) would be for this thing to really bomb faster? Seriously, that's plausible, even at 30 or so hour lead, that that the low really takes off more like 50 Mi E of ACY and the punches a whole in the troposphere heading just off the Cape ...which might be some 3 to 6 hours ahead of schedule, but a huge difference maker in actually getting some wickedness in time. this is what I am wishing for (the last paragraph) and it is one of the scenarios I have in my mind for something epic to really ever happen here in ctrv Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said: Did you read their latest discussion? Nudity. Yup, I was already undressed...........lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 6 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: I recall a system in the big winter couple years ago that had a freakish late development to the point may were on the fence 12 hrs out if this was going to happen. Will probably remembers but it ended up going gang busters and rocking E MA with about 3 hrs ob blizzard conditions say 5-8 am or so. Wish i could remember the disco late that nite when they finally gave it all systems go. Mid level madness. Great storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 19 minutes ago, dryslot said: Giddy up A thing of beauty. The 'highest' map is a chuckler. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 BOX afternoon update was pretty bullish out here. 10-16" for Greenfield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 Here's the new one. Bumped up a bit for most for cities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 4 minutes ago, bobbutts said: Here's the new one. Bumped up a bit for most for cities. Getting close to rivaling the Feb 2013 Blizzard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 reading between the lines in box discussion the 6 plus is nowhere near set in stone for more southern interior areas, tremendous concern and they do not seem to enthusiastic about a heavy waa thump unless I am missing something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 3 minutes ago, dryslot said: Getting close to rivaling the Feb 2013 Blizzard Which gave Farmington all off 8.8"; I had a couple more. Would take a serious bust to not exceed that by far. Going big. Not sure where to put it all. Today's 7" (and counting, but not much more) 35:1 fluffernutter brought the pack to 33", though by the time things get going tomorrow it will probably have settled under 30. Noted a hurricane force wind warning for Monday in the GOM, winds 55-65 kt. Don't see that too often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 Which gave Farmington all off 8.8"; I had a couple more. Would take a serious bust to not exceed that by far. Going big. Not sure where to put it all. Today's 7" (and counting, but not much more) 35:1 fluffernutter brought the pack to 33", though by the time things get going tomorrow it will probably have settled under 30. Noted a hurricane force wind warning for Monday in the GOM, winds 55-65 kt. Don't see that too often.I had 3.3" and now another band is here, this is going to be a fun 2 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 11, 2017 Author Share Posted February 11, 2017 BTV WRF is virtual all snow even at BOS. I think just inland where it stays all snow, but close enough for temps to be 32-33 may have some power issues...especially as winds increase near dawn Monday. Could be a lot of weight on those trees and wires. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzard24 Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 just asking if any here has a weather radio and did your alarm went off today mine didnt go off today but went off for test on wed i live in northern ct area . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 Comparing 18z RGEM / 18z NAM / 12z Euro... 850T's are very similar at 3z-6z Monday and plenty cold... the odd man out is the 18z RGEM with > 0C 925T just kissing Boston between 3z-6z Monday. One reason, ironically, might be the sooner (ie. slightly further west as it passes south of CT/RI) and deeper development of the surface low and associated WAA mechanisms on the RGEM compared to the NAM / Euro at 3z. But RGEM is odd man out and 0z suite will be hugely telling... we are very close to all snow in Boston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 I kind of agree that this is either going to overperform, or just whiff with the CCB....concerned about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 49 minutes ago, ROOSTA said: They will. Kind of a no brainer not to think Blizzard threshold will not be achieved. Like the past storm numerous locations surpassed and never in watch or warning for blizzard. WSW or Blizzard, either way it's going to rip! They state in the evening's AFD that its such a close call with the CCB Monday Am, that they will wait to decide. Should guidance move slightly west with Monday's action that will hoist em, otherwise they will probably stand pat thru tommorrow afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
walthsnow Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 Does anyone know how this compares to the 2/15/15 snowstorm, the one with the thunder snow in Plymouth and insane rates occurring early in the morning? I thought that band of intense snow backed in from the east. Out in the gulf of Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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