JBinStoughton Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 5 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: What kind of ratios are we looking at? Kuchera is <10:1 in my area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 0z RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Never buy more than 6-10 in WAA snows. Disagree-I've seen 12+ numerous times in WAA. most recently 2/2/15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 one thing (AT least according to the WPC website) that seems to be underdone is the amount of BL issues E of 495. First i thought it was just a timing issue (snows west first then east) but when i expanded the time frame ....round 1 has much higher probs of 6" in elevated ORH country then even the 495 belt (N of Pike) thru 1am Monday am. Even 4" probs reflect that. I thought there was a higher chance of 4-6 in the 128-495 loop then WPC is indicating from round 1, they seem to be betting on more BL issues into Interior CP of E mass? as long as i stay snow in LWM i'm good , even if its 5" of mash potatoes but if i go to rain tomm eve theres problems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 Just now, weathafella said: Disagree-I've seen 12+ numerous times in WAA. most recently 2/2/15. That had coastal assistance...remember how it rapidly developed that morning?...this may also have coastal help, but the WAA part prob wont exceed 10". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stash Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Never buy more than 6-10 in WAA snows. Exactly. Have always gone 6-10 for decent SWFE's, and it usually works out. May have pushed 12 one time after convergence tacked on a couple more afterward. Good luck with the coastal! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 Just now, ineedsnow said: 0z RGEM Looks good, about 1.5" of liquid for my area, if all snow would be at least 12-15" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 2 minutes ago, weathafella said: Disagree-I've seen 12+ numerous times in WAA. most recently 2/2/15. Didn't that pretty much turn into a coastal though? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 Just now, ORH_wxman said: That had coastal assistance...remember how it rapidly developed that morning?...this may also have coastal help, but the WAA part prob wont exceed 10". Oh I agree in this case but I've probably seen 12+ 8-10 times over the years in WAA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 6 minutes ago, Stash said: I was thinking 6-10, so sounds good to me. I wouldn't be surprised if amounts were lowered by morning. Even still, it'll be one of the better packs we've had in years. I'm in the 6-10" camp for NW MA. I know this is a potent system and will crank a coastal L but I find it difficult to get a SWFE to produce more than that. I was surprised by BOX calling for 12-15" here. hi-res NAM did have .75 qpf in Albany but let's assume 10:1 on this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Didn't that pretty much turn into a coastal though? Of course-as did Jan 1994 and all the others that overperform including potentially this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 Just now, weathafella said: Oh I agree in this case but I've probably seen 12+ 8-10 times over the years in WAA. I don't think I can name more than a couple. I'll bet most of those you are thinking had some sort of conveyor inflow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Never buy more than 6-10 in WAA snows. I generally take that rule as gospel, thus my skepticism at the 10"+ forecasts being thrown around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajisai Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 The E ma Coast still looks up the air. No big changes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 Just now, ORH_wxman said: I don't think I can name more than a couple. I'll bet most of those you are thinking had some sort of conveyor inflow. They did but aren't we seeing that potential here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 Just now, weathafella said: They did but aren't we seeing that potential here? Ray is only talking the SWFE portion of the system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 Just now, weathafella said: They did but aren't we seeing that potential here? Yes we are...but I think the point is that if this develops pretty late, then we may be mostly looking at 6-10 and then a dryslot...with only nuisance snows on Monday. If it develops fast, then yeah, we'll prob get some good inflow even before a mature CCB on Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 1 minute ago, ajisai said: The E ma Coast still looks up the air. No big changes its also up in the air how far that extends inland i guess watching the RGEM snow totals on its next cycle or 2 will help with that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bboughton Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 I really don't get a sense of what to expect out of this for Boston. It looks like 6-8" of paste trailing off overnight Sunday into Monday, with a chance of a burst of a few inches of snow Monday morning around the commute. Is that more or less right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 Just now, dendrite said: Ray is only talking the SWFE portion of the system. Well unless there is a distinct lull it will be part of the transition. WAA technically drives the bus n matter what in a sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 1 minute ago, bboughton said: I really don't get a sense of what to expect out of this for Boston. It looks like 6-8" of paste trailing off overnight Sunday into Monday, with a chance of a burst of a few inches of snow Monday morning around the commute. Is that more or less right? 4-20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 Just now, weathafella said: Well unless there is a distinct lull it will be part of the transition. WAA technically drives the bus n matter what in a sense. He was replying to people out in NY. They won't be getting the coastal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 1 minute ago, weathafella said: Well unless there is a distinct lull it will be part of the transition. WAA technically drives the bus n matter what in a sense. Distinct diff. Between pure WAA and CCB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 Just now, dendrite said: He was replying to people out in NY. They won't be getting the coastal. Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 My forecast for interior SE Mass would be 4-8 with the WAA and then another 2-4 with the CCB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 11 minutes ago, weathafella said: Disagree-I've seen 12+ numerous times in WAA. most recently 2/2/15. That had a coastal development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Distinct diff. Between pure WAA and CCB. CCB in many coastal is ill defined. This one is modeled differently and more concretely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 Just now, weathafella said: CCB in many coastal is ill defined. This one is modeled differently and more concretely. I think its going to be pretty clear whether we get it or not....if we don't, its several hours of nuisance after 6-10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: I think its going to be pretty clear whether we get it or not....if we don't, its several hours of nuisance after 6-10. at this point it almost seems the CCB is destined to be a now cast to a large degree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaryS Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 Everything I have seen, read and summarized, here in Marblehead on the coast of Essex County, we will get anywhere from 3 to 18 inches...... Right? I don't think I have seen so many different predictions for just one storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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