Maestrobjwa Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: GFS caves fully to the Euro. Wow. Annnd the EURO poops the party again. What did we ever do to ya, EURO? Lol Hope we still have a good pattern behind it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 The timing difference between coastal vs cutters for the day 9-10 storm is obvious now. The cutters are keying on the northern stream wave like the 0z gfs. The coastal swing that through as a weak system then amplify the southern system a day later. That northern system is starting way too far north and not digging enough to have any chance of getting under us. If that amplified it's going way west like the gfs run. Our only hope is the southern system behind it. But I doubt it does anything if the northern stream develops right in front of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 6 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Alrighty then....is there still a day 11 threat to track? Some lake effect snow squalls creeping over the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 Our old friend the WAR is back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 Ggem: there is no storm 1. Storm 2 cuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 After a few really good days of runs things took a turn today. Hopefully we bounce back tomorrow. Goodnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 Nice storm at 336, if only it were 10C cooler. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 32 minutes ago, stormtracker said: GFS caves fully to the Euro. Wow. This is about the time when the Euro takes on a new look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 32 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Alrighty then....is there still a day 11 threat to track? Thank you for your substantive contributions to the discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 I have had no real help either. is there a bias list of the models now? I see claims by mets that say that there are biases. I would like to see them. Also, what is it about this year that has made models so bad? Fast flow.. poor Pacific data? What is the deal? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 7 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said: I have had no real help either. is there a bias list of the models now? I see claims by mets that say that there are biases. I would like to see them. Also, what is it about this year that has made models so bad? Fast flow.. poor Pacific data? What is the deal? They have been extremely accurate inside 5-6 days. They have shown no snow inside that nearly the entire winter. Dont expect the models to be very accurate at leads much beyond that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 On 12/17/2016 at 8:00 AM, H2O said: Interesting to note that per the GFS from yesterday I was supposed to be getting above freezing by 12z(8am) On 12/18/2016 at 4:32 PM, Bob Chill said: I'm not going to post about the long range until something meaningful shows up for more than 1-2 ens runs. For right now psu said it perfectly. Everything has turned hostile for snow chances in the east and for now it appears to have legs. I'm sure some folks will chime in and say LR models are as bad as throwing darts and such but when every single piece of guidance is saying the same exact thing run after run there is zero reason to discount the glaring problems we're facing through the end of the month and probably beyond. On 1/22/2017 at 4:19 AM, stormtracker said: Sigh. Back to the icez we all know and love. On 1/29/2017 at 5:28 AM, Wonderdog said: Big Hitters seem to be always pushed back in time this winter, if you want to call it that. Just too much volatility on the models past four or five days or so. Not reliable for sure. But so far the end result has always been the same this year, so far. We do better with a storm forming in the gulf states instead of these disturbances moving across the middle of the country. Those seem to be very undependable for our latitude this year. Very frustrating. Seems we can't hold on to a storm past 24 hours that is worth tracking. 2 hours ago, kurtstack said: They have been extremely accurate inside 5-6 days. They have shown no snow inside that nearly the entire winter. Dont expect the models to be very accurate at leads much beyond that. The psu storm next week is showing rain and 73 per the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 3 hours ago, Ji said: The psu storm next week is showing rain and 73 per the euro Big Bermuda high. We can only hope that sets up shop for March April May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Big Bermuda high. We can only hope that sets up shop for March April May. hey ralph -- day 11 has eastern US/Europe/Far east in Deep freeze https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 Looking over the EPS and there is not much good news. Was going to go into some detail but not really worth the effort. Euro has backed off even more with the 1'st storm though if there is a silver lining it does show 7 members with a 3-6 inch deal. Second storm still is a no go with sending a strong low into the lakes though now it is initially developing the low farther south with a track south east of the 12Z. See a couple possibilities there but that is probably more wish-casting then anything else. We do see a handful of members that still give us a solid hit. Haven't looked to see how they achieve it but after looking over the means would not be surprised if they are showing post frontal snow as an ana-front low rides up the cold front. And we know how well waiting for snow after a cold front passage works in our area. Long range still has some issues but it would be a workable pattern with the trough setup in the east. Would just be a matter of timing. Biggest takeaway is that it looks to have shifted the potential PV west off of Alaska. The look presented with that feature actually brings up the possibility of cross polar flow if the ridging can bridge from our side to the other side of the globe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 19 minutes ago, mdsnowlover said: hey ralph -- day 11 has eastern US/Europe/Far east in Deep freeze https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi Tweet was 7 hrs. ago....old run. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 Call me an optimist but I think we're still in the game for this weekend and the following weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 4 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Tweet was 7 hrs. ago....old run. Lol havent seen anything posted to counter it lol!!! btw youre right, some years we just dont get any snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 The GFS 06Z run plays out a possibility I have considered. Of course it would be a 10 day storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 Where's the post that showed all of the globals in complete agreement on a solid eastern pattern? One can only assume it must be easier pattern wise for the models to predict warm...too much chaos has to happen for cold to happen...the atmosphere can fart warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 Serious question...and yes I know we have been Lucy'd all winter, but is this not the point in which models tend to lose a storm and bring it back say tomorrow? Or just wishful thinking... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 1 minute ago, Scraff said: Serious question...and yes I know we have been Lucy'd all winter, but is this not the point in which models tend to lose a storm and bring it back say tomorrow? Or just wishful thinking... Hope is a dangerous thing. - Red Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 3 minutes ago, Scraff said: Serious question...and yes I know we have been Lucy'd all winter, but is this not the point in which models tend to lose a storm and bring it back say tomorrow? Or just wishful thinking... Yes to both questions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 31 minutes ago, Scraff said: Serious question...and yes I know we have been Lucy'd all winter, but is this not the point in which models tend to lose a storm and bring it back say tomorrow? Or just wishful thinking... Yes they can and sometimes do lose storms only to bring them back a day or two later. Just my thoughts on this but I believe most times you see this is when the 500's are active with energy within the northern and southern streams at 500mb. The overall general pattern at 500's will stay the same throughout but the models will key on certain pieces of energy for a stretch of time and then decide to key on something else for a stretch losing your storm. Then only to move back a day or two later to the original pieces or even to new pieces altogether flipping back to the original reflection seen at the surface. Not sure that may be the case here though. The overall promising pattern seen at 500's just a couple of days ago has degraded quite a bit since then. So the work that needs to be done to get our storms back probably will have to start there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 Thanks for the responses gentlemen. I hear all of you. I'll keep the faith a few more days. I'm heading off to NYC now. Hopefully I'll see an inch or two today. Might be the last flakes I see all winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 We are screwed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 7 minutes ago, RidingTheModelWithMostSnow said: We are screwed. quoting this as a reminder: this stuff belongs in banter. This thread is already a cluttered mess of some really good discussion followed by crap posts. Keep the crap to banter. Thanks, from the semi, sorta, have power, but not really, "staff" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 How we lookin? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 2 hours ago, Wonderdog said: Call me an optimist but I think we're still in the game for this weekend and the following weekend. Me too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 1 hour ago, WinterWxLuvr said: How we lookin? PM Nokesvilleburg. He'll tell you...and then post it over and over again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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