kurtstack Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 6 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: That's the event I was talking with Ji about yesterday. It is Friday night, correct? I think yesterday I said Thursday night because for whatever reason I thought Friday was the 4th. The NAM and GGEM also hinted at a possibility for some very light precip with this wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 Euro is out to hr96, but nothing notable yet that I can see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 1 hour ago, Bob Chill said: Unless the weekend deal can shift back to a more dominant ss vort, I'm no longer interested in anything for a while. It's become more than tiresome at this point discussing beyond the medium range because anything we discuss beyond that range morphs into something other than good once we is close inside of a week. Just one of those years I suppose. Not particularly uncommon. We have been spoiled over the last couple of years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 At hr 120 the low seems to have weakened considerably, but the new High over Greenland has my attention. Am comparing to yesterday's 12z. That low might be erroneous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 Triple phaser 983 over Kansas. The Dakotas will be rocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 5 minutes ago, Amped said: Triple phaser 983 over Kansas. The Dakotas will be rocking. Let's see what it does from there....lol 965 mb over Lake Superior! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 3 minutes ago, BTRWx said: Let's see what it does from there. pump the Western Atlantic Ridge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 5 minutes ago, mitchnick said: pump the Western Atlantic Ridge but that tilt...is Fujiwara possible over land Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 Congrats Duluth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 one GLL to rule them all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 Looks really cold after though. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 5 minutes ago, Paleocene said: one GLL to rule them all Unfortunately that thing swallows the 1013 mini into the arctic, but a tease in the GOM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 Wow that Gulf of Mexico Low actually heads towards us! It's closely ots this run barely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 Day 10 is certainly colder than normal, but not by a whole lot sadly. And by then we're facing rising temps. And to think that map is for 2/10 and by 2/10 our historic winter of 09/10 had just essentially ended. Ughhhh boy........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 It looks like a very weak low though, and we all know the end result won't look anything like this anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 1 hour ago, osfan24 said: It looks like a very weak low though, and we all know the end result won't look anything like this anyway. Eager to see the eps in a couple hours! This would be first run in range for such a system. No signal of a storm whatsoever from the 12z eps for hr 240. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 Whatd the Euro show in terms of Sunday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 36 minutes ago, mitchnick said: pump the Western Atlantic Ridge Severe weather? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 2 minutes ago, BaltimoreWxGuy said: Whatd the Euro show in terms of Sunday? It never makes it much past the Mississippi River. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 This is our biggest problem and best hope all in one. The suddenly shift to crap in the medium range happened right as the mjo trended towards more amplitude into warm phases. But it's also spiking into cold by day 11. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: This is our biggest problem and best hope all in one. The suddenly shift to crap in the medium range happened right as the mjo trended towards more amplitude into warm phases. But it's also spiking into cold by day 11. And it was 2 days ago, 3 at the most, that the prog was to stay in the circle of death until emerging in a good phase. We all need to lose the link to this site and come back when it's cloudy and the snow starts falling. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 3 minutes ago, mitchnick said: And it was 2 days ago, 3 at the most, that the prog was to stay in the circle of death until emerging in a good phase. We all need to lose the link to this site and come back when it's cloudy and the snow starts falling. lol I don't think that was the case. I stand corrected. The strong amplitude being modeled for this period is notable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 16 minutes ago, mitchnick said: And it was 2 days ago, 3 at the most, that the prog was to stay in the circle of death until emerging in a good phase. We all need to lose the link to this site and come back when it's cloudy and the snow starts falling. lol Except that the trend is towards a stronger mjo wave and that is hurting us in the short term. But if we do get a string mjo wave it will help once it moves into better phases. The mjo was always edging close to hurting us first but was teetering run to run or model to model. The sudden flip to consensus in a stronger wave in bad phases on all guidance was when our look deteriorated also. Not coincidence. But it's logical then to say a stronger mjo wave into 8 in 11 days would help. So it's a double edged sword. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 On 1/29/2017 at 0:39 PM, psuhoffman said: Specifics will shift around at range but the general larger features haven't been as bad. I think the extraordinary success from range last January plus some of those storms in 2009/10 have given unrealistic expectations of long range guidance. Those all happened in extremely stable blocking patterns with an stj dominant storm track. What's happening this year is more typical. Think back to 2013/14. How many of those snows were locked in more then 72 hours out? I remember most trended significantly in the short ranges. But we didn't complain about the models issues because it was snowing every few days all winter so who cares. When there is no snow and we are frustrated we nitpick everything. To me the shifts run to run on the feb 6 threat are within the envelope of what I would expect in the 6-10 day range. I am really glad chased that blizzard in the delmarva a few weeks back. ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 EPS has several MASSIVE hits, all in some form or another after the cold front associated with the Low of Sauron day 9-12. Some anafront action. Also some members with the trailing piece of energy out of the gulf after the aforementioned low. One member has what looks like a bull's-eye of 30"+ all from one storm (day 9-12). Sent from my Pixel using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 Just now, paulythegun said: EPS has several MASSIVE hits, all in some form or another after the cold front associated with the Low of Sauron day 9-12. Some anafront action. Also some members with the trailing piece of after aforementioned low. One member has what looks like a bull's-eye of 30"+ all from one storm. Sent from my Pixel using Tapatalk What about the mean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 51 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Except that the trend is towards a stronger mjo wave and that is hurting us in the short term. But if we do get a string mjo wave it will help once it moves into better phases. The mjo was always edging close to hurting us first but was teetering run to run or model to model. The sudden flip to consensus in a stronger wave in bad phases on all guidance was when our look deteriorated also. Not coincidence. But it's logical then to say a stronger mjo wave into 8 in 11 days would help. So it's a double edged sword. I was commenting on the trustworthiness of the MJO forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 Why do we care what the models say 10+ days out this season... for that matter 7+ days out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 4 minutes ago, RidingTheModelWithMostSnow said: Why do we care what the models say 10+ days out this season... for that matter 7+ days out Per the thread header. February Medium/Long Range Discussion Thread Just saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 Just now, showmethesnow said: Per the thread header. February Medium/Long Range Discussion Thread Just saying. Understood... Just venting some frustration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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