weathafella Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 GFS doesn't impress me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 I don't expect the 18z GFS to impress anybody, the 00z run will show you why. Can't wait for those runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 3 minutes ago, JC-CT said: No...it won't Jeezus H Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 1 minute ago, weathafella said: GFS doesn't impress me. goin all Shania on us eh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 GFS still dumps heavy snow on Cape Cod. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 She gone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 5, 2017 Author Share Posted January 5, 2017 The GFS looks like garbage actually. hopefully the 12z runs weren't a blip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 It was east of 12z...but not by much...mostly cosmetic changes. It's not a wholesale change like the trends we saw earlier today. We'll see what 00z brings on us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 1 minute ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: I don't expect the 18z GFS to impress anybody, the 00z run will show you why. Can't wait for those runs. Is it a secret that you have uncovered? Cuz you sure sounded impressed about a strong negative tilting southern shortwave that was better than 12Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 People's emotions flip flopping almost as much as the models...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: She gone? No...probably looking at advisory level outside of E Mass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 4 minutes ago, JC-CT said: Shut up. It's still not too bad for your longitude, and we are kind of locking in here. We kid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 1 minute ago, mahk_webstah said: Is it a secret that you have uncovered? Cuz you sure sounded impressed about a strong negative tilting southern shortwave that was better than 12Z Lay off, the beginning of the run there were good changes, it just didn't transfer like the NAM showed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Just now, CoastalWx said: We kid. You kid. For those of us on the fringe, 20 miles is a big deal. Snow is serious bizness, didn't you know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Slight shift for the worse..but not as dramatic as some of the analysis seemed to suggest. The bigger disappointment is the trend NW halting for the time being Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 "it was all a" mid level "dream". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 1 minute ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Lay off, the beginning of the run there were good changes, it just didn't transfer like the NAM showed. OK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 1 minute ago, JC-CT said: You kid. For those of us on the fringe, 20 miles is a big deal. Unless we see a major change, I think this storm is a great QPF queen example for a portion of the area. Watch the mid levels. Look at RH, lift, and thermal packing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 2 minutes ago, JC-CT said: No...probably looking at advisory level outside of E Mass. Just joshing. I really think this is advisory snow back to the CTRV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: "it was all a" mid level "dream". I used to read Kocin magazine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Just now, CoastalWx said: Unless we see a major change, I think this storm is a great QPF queen example for a portion of the area. Watch the mid levels. Look at RH, lift, and thermal packing. Yes indeed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Just now, SouthCoastMA said: Slight shift for the worse..but not as dramatic as some of the analysis seemed to suggest. The bigger disappointment is the trend NW halting for the time being Yeah it wasn't much....but when folks are on the line, they'll tend to spout a bit more hyperbole. The PNA ridge was flatter this run too similar to the NAM....the NAM was able to overcome it with a much stronger southern stream shortwave, the GFS was not, so it ticked east. We'll see if that trend in the PNA continues at 00z...if it does, then we're probably done with the northwest trend. If the PNA can at least hold serve, then we can hope for a stronger southern stream to bring this a bit further NW....and obviously if the PNA starts trending back better, then that is the best case scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Ok. so you're a shortwave that don't impress me much you may got the tilt but you ain't got the stuff Don't get me wrong yeah I think you're alright But that won't save my pack in the middle of the night You don't impress me much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Kinda fun being on the outside looking in for an event like this. Just for the people watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Unless we see a major change, I think this storm is a great QPF queen example for a portion of the area. Watch the mid levels. Look at RH, lift, and thermal packing. On the GFS, would that imply around the CTRV? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarverWX Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 The GFS still looked like a solid 6-8 for the south shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Unless we see a major change, I think this storm is a great QPF queen example for a portion of the area. Watch the mid levels. Look at RH, lift, and thermal packing. You can see how nice the forcing is that the GFS is insisting on developing that weak inverted trough. Synoptic scale lift with that southern stream s/w is trying to force some kind of surface reflection. I think a more widespread light event is more likely than the GFS's inverted trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 I'd hit it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 15 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: The GFS looks like garbage actually. hopefully the 12z runs weren't a blip No it doenst H5 still looks good. It's the surface that was the problem. Most likely the low jumping towards the convection. I thought this run should have been west with higher heights in the east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BRSno Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 I'd still hit the 18z GFS as it is, better than nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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