dryslot Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Someone well outside the bullseye could end up with .25" qpf and 15:1 ratios. That is true Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: There's certain times where you undercut the QPF and then there are certain times where you might augment it higher (or at least the snow totals higher) based on the mid-level look...this is one of those latter scenarios as modeled on the NAM/RGEM. It might show a place like BOS getting like 6-8", but in reality, the mid-levels would probably argue for a stripe of double digits in that zone. That's obviously if that type of solution is what we have on the eve of the storm. RGEM coming on board increases confidence in this continuing to ramp up for ENE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: RGEM coming on board increases confidence in this continuing to ramp up for ENE Yeah...good trend. Still on the edge of it's range though, so we'll see what tomorrow brings. Euro is a big one tonight. I expect the GFS to not look nearly as good as the mesos tonight, but hopefully it makes a tick NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Will is right, perfect COL and thermal packing usually means banding galore. Very evident on RGEM and NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: RGEM coming on board increases confidence in this continuing to ramp up for ENE See where that goes inside 36 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Looks like 00z GFS will be a bit better than 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 0z GFS should be a tic or two better then the 18z run it looks like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 yea, heights a tick better out ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rnaude241 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Harvey just tweeted he has growing concern for wave 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 The lakes s/w hanging back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 minute ago, dryslot said: The lakes s/w hanging back if only it could make a super dive into the backside now lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 I see basically no difference through 42 hours. If it ends up different, it will be almost negligible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 QPF output may only be a hair better, but slight improvement elsewhere based on 700,850, and general midlevel VV/RH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: if only it could make a super dive into the backside now lol. Swan dive down the backside Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 This ones coming. Miller A is not in the GFS wheelhouse. Brings 0.5 line to almost my house nonetheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Nothing really noteworthy. Euro should be interesting later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 its been so stubbornly proggy with every event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 GFS is basically identical to 18z at the surface. Haven't looked at midlevels yet. Edit: Slight improvement from 18z but nothing major on the midlevels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Look at MET throwing up an 8 for BOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 6, 2017 Author Share Posted January 6, 2017 Looks roughly the same..... would have liked something more than that.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Euro will probably improve somewhat but I think every piece of guidance is playing catchup now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Who's staying up for the Euro tonight??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 There was better inflow at 925-850 which is what I would like to see to help with a more broader QPF shield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 6, 2017 Author Share Posted January 6, 2017 5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I see basically no difference through 42 hours. If it ends up different, it will be almost negligible. Yeah.... any improvement is so small I don't even know if I'd even call that a net positive. Would have liked to see something more substantial Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Still has that inv. trough look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Ill just throw all guidance into a blender and pour 2-3" for DXR. best it will get but whatevs, get something out of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Just now, Hoth said: Still has that inv. trough look. It does. At least it has better E-NE flow in the lower several thousand feet. I'd like to see more of a wrapped up 850-ish low to tighten things up a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 How did the GFS do leading up to the big hit a week ago tonight for NNE and Maine?? Did it drag its feet like it's doing now?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Just now, WinterWolf said: How did the GFS do leading up to the big hit a week ago tonight for NNE and Maine?? Did it drag its feet like it's doing now?? It was too amplified within 36 hrs or so. Not sure that should matter here as the H5 setup was much more explosive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 RGEM is a red flag ... it's not quite in the wheelhouse of that model, but it's sharing the same trend behavior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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