ORH_wxman Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Prob warning snow close to BOS-PVD line. Prob gets advisory stuff back to about ORH-TOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 The best part is the mid levels look excellent. Not far off from those good mesoscale model runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Just now, ORH_wxman said: The best part is the mid levels look excellent. Not far off from those good mesoscale model runs. Oh that's good to hear..for those of us in central SNE..every LIL bit helps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: The best part is the mid levels look excellent. Not far off from those good mesoscale model runs. The mid levels have always argued that we pay a little more attention, at least on the Euro. Seems like the good old US of A is finally coming around to the idea too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCHurricane Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Changes becoming a bit bigger by 36h. This will be NW of 12z. Looks like a pretty good bump up in QPF compared to previous runs. For Cape Cod: 0.27in tomorrow, 0.84in Saturday evening --> Potential for ~10 inches of snow to fall over the next 2 days For Boston: 0.08in tomorrow, 0.46in Saturday evening --> with the likelihood of higher rations, perhaps a 4-6 inch snowfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 First guess at potential upside....no huge surprises.....thanks for the UK graphic, Will: http://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2017/01/light-snows-on-friday-rehearsal-for.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Looks similar to the GGW run the other night....HECS amounts just east of CC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Wait wait wait......I'm staying in Natick Fri night and Sat night....do Igot problems ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Looks similar to the GGW run the other night....HECS amounts just east of CC. Might have a little BOXGW tonight too. Even if Cape Cod does get some decent snow, the real goods are still for the fish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Piggy backing off some of what Will and Ryan were discussing in the model mayhem thread earlier today, much of the ensemble sensitivity regarding a deeper, farther NW low pressure is derived from a sharper southern stream trof. There was really little signal in the PNA ridge, but a deeper northern stream or ridging in the Maritimes could do the trick too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 6, 2017 Author Share Posted January 6, 2017 Could use another 50 miles to get se mass into the real goods on the euro... not a bad look though. see where it goes tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Could use another 50 miles to get se mass into the real goods on the euro... not a bad look though. see where it goes tomorrow 25 miles puts SE MA in the goods, 50 puts me in warning criteria. Have a feeling this isn't done moving west... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 11 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: Those are the SREFs...take with many grains of salt. It is certainly possible this ends up far enough west to give plowable snowfall into central regions of SNE if we get another tick at 00z like we did at 12z. It's comical how bad they are now. You can always count on them to be amped and NW. They currently have warning snows all the way to John in Pittsburg. Thank is nearly an unusable piece of guidance. No wonder Cliff Mass rails on wasted computer resources. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 EURO and NAM are similar in strength now with the southern stream system and the surface low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 GFS is currently outlier and I have much more confidence in forecasting 12"+ for Cape and Nantucket. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 6, 2017 Author Share Posted January 6, 2017 NAM def looks a bit east of 00z with the low placement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Definitely BOXGW kind of forecast. Weenies are stirring in the middle of the night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 6, 2017 Author Share Posted January 6, 2017 Maybe I'm crazy and overtired... but the whole setup definitey looks east on the NAM. Doesnt look quite as strong ultimately either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 NAM went east. I'm sure it might have been just an off hour run cycle, and it could come back west at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueDXer75 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 24 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Maybe I'm crazy and overtired... but the whole setup definitey looks east on the NAM. Doesnt look quite as strong ultimately either it did go a little east. But running the loop on the 4km NAM on TT, looks like the low jumps all around, following the convection or something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 I've looked at a couple of different models. Seems like this would be good snows up to BOS. I'd be a bit concerned near Ray. Hopefully those guys can cash in too but it looks like coastal front pins over Logan during the height. That would probably a good little band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 6z NAM is warning snows at and inside 128. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 I like the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Blue Hill could very likely put up a 6" spot considering OES. Scott in a good spot too. South Shore looks good. Still need another run of EURO for more confidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 As bad as we all thought the 00z GFS was, it still increased my snowfall totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 The amazing thing is the GFS and Euro H5 pattern are nearly identical across the CONUS through 48 or so hours. Yet still produce differing results. The only notable difference I see is that the Euro is a hair deeper with the southern stream trof, and maybe you could convince yourself the GFS is actually slightly higher with the PNA ridge. Which goes to show the ensemble sensitivity stuff is on the right track, as the small change in southern stream shortwave has a larger effect on the NW track than the better PNA ridge does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 BOX chucking watches from IJD through ORH to LWM. salute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 28 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: BOX chucking watches from IJD through ORH to LWM. salute. Good idea I think but it should be cut down north and west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 432 AM EST FRI JAN 6 2017 CTZ004-MAZ005>007-012>018-RIZ001>005-061745- /O.EXB.KBOX.WS.A.0001.170107T1200Z-170108T0700Z/ WINDHAM CT-CENTRAL MIDDLESEX MA-WESTERN ESSEX MA-EASTERN ESSEX MA- SOUTHERN WORCESTER MA-WESTERN NORFOLK MA-SOUTHEAST MIDDLESEX MA- SUFFOLK MA-EASTERN NORFOLK MA-NORTHERN BRISTOL MA- WESTERN PLYMOUTH MA-NORTHWEST PROVIDENCE RI- SOUTHEAST PROVIDENCE RI-WESTERN KENT RI-EASTERN KENT RI- BRISTOL RI- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PUTNAM...WILLIMANTIC...FRAMINGHAM... LOWELL...LAWRENCE...GLOUCESTER...MILFORD...WORCESTER... FOXBOROUGH...NORWOOD...CAMBRIDGE...BOSTON...QUINCY...TAUNTON... BROCKTON...FOSTER...SMITHFIELD...PROVIDENCE...COVENTRY... WEST GREENWICH...EAST GREENWICH...WARWICK...WEST WARWICK... BRISTOL 432 AM EST FRI JAN 6 2017 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. * LOCATIONS...EASTERN CONNECTICUT...ALL OF RHODE ISLAND AND EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS. * HAZARD TYPES...ACCUMULATING SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. * TIMING...SNOW DEVELOPS SATURDAY MORNING AND THEN OVERSPREADS THE ENTIRE REGION DURING SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING... THEN TAPERING OFF OVERNIGHT. * IMPACTS...UNTREATED ROADS WILL BECOME SNOW COVERED AND SLICK. SNOW MAY BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES WITH VISIBILITY SEVERELY REDUCED. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS. BE PREPARED TO MODIFY TRAVEL PLANS SHOULD WINTER WEATHER DEVELOP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Looks like GFS ticked east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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