OceanStWx Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Just now, sbos_wx said: Good idea I think but it should be cut down north and west. I mean for part of the area sure, but all the back to Middlesex and Worcester seems excessive to me. It feels almost like chasing a NW trend. I mean LWM for instance has QPF of 0.37, 0.13, 0.43, and 0.26 (Euro, GFS, NAM, GGEM), for an average of about 0.30" QPF. BOX has 4.5" of snow forecast there, a straight 15:1 ratio. So you're already hedging on the high side of QPF, and then applying a climatologically rare snow ratio to boot. I can tell you they tossed the GFS QPF outright because it wasn't high enough, and instead blended the two highest QPF producers. To me it's just not the most likely forecast, this is the probable worst case scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 9 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: I mean for part of the area sure, but all the back to Middlesex and Worcester seems excessive to me. It feels almost like chasing a NW trend. I mean LWM for instance has QPF of 0.37, 0.13, 0.43, and 0.26 (Euro, GFS, NAM, GGEM), for an average of about 0.30" QPF. BOX has 4.5" of snow forecast there, a straight 15:1 ratio. So you're already hedging on the high side of QPF, and then applying a climatologically rare snow ratio to boot. I can tell you they tossed the GFS QPF outright because it wasn't high enough, and instead blended the two highest QPF producers. To me it's just not the most likely forecast, this is the probable worst case scenario. Qpf queen? Lol . I would say 3-6 HFD ORH KGAY, inside 128 84 395 495 to the canal 6-10, with a foot on the Cape seems likely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Qpf queen? Lol . I would say 3-6 HFD ORH KGAY inside 128 84 395 495 to the canal 6-10 with a foot on the Cape seems likely BOXGW To me this just seems like a 90th percentile forecast and not the most likely forecast. But maybe I'm just more annoyed at the collaboration of it all. They told us they wanted a watch, and we agreed on what counties/zones, but then at the last minute without a heads up they tossed in Middlesex. Which of course then gets NH all worried because that borders ASH-MHT. So then NH starts listening to BOX's forecast because they don't want to miss any information, and it erodes the confidence in our forecast. Etc, etc I was fine with Essex County though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 minute ago, OceanStWx said: BOXGW To me this just seems like a 90th percentile forecast and not the most likely forecast. But maybe I'm just more annoyed at the collaboration of it all. They told us they wanted a watch, and we agreed on what counties/zones, but then at the last minute without a heads up they tossed in Middlesex. Which of course then gets NH all worried because that borders ASH-MHT. Decision support Gw? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Decision support Gw? Makes we want to root for the SE trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Tasty looks abound for us snow starved ESNE rs though. Some mid level magic. Euro and RGEM have instability looks. Could be some crazy rates in a banded zone. Nice looking stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Makes we want to root for the SE trend. GTFOOH lol Go stare at your foot on the ground Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: GTFOOH lol Go stare at your foot on the ground 13" but who's counting? This storm has always had a little mid level magic in it. At least that's been remarkably consistent for the 3 nights I've been on mids now. I highlighted a few of the red flags for NW trends in my AFD this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 But here's the sensitivity stuff. It's a little confusing because the GEFS variance showed a weaker/SE low so the higher heights in the shortwave would confirm that variance of weaker/SE. So we want lower heights in the shortwave to produce the opposite (stronger/NW) case. The EPS on the other hand had variance for a stronger/NW low, so you see lower heights again confirm that variance. The key is that shortwave needs to have lower heights than the ensembles were predicting to get this to continue the trend NW. I would urge the weenies to step away from the clown maps and instead compare the 12z balloons to the GEFS and EPS H5 heights at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Watch out for the OES CJ too. Forecast soundings show around a 300 mb deep DGZ Saturday with NNE winds. So somebody in a narrow band might really cash in. South Weymouth FTW? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Seriously though, the trajectory look ideal for someone in Plymouth County to hit it on the high side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Great stuff Chris yea a true Messenger special (RIP) but we have Diane "No poles" in place. Hopefully the GFS bias with Miller A hasn't changed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 22 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Tasty looks abound for us snow starved ESNE rs though. Some mid level magic. Euro and RGEM have instability looks. Could be some crazy rates in a banded zone. Nice looking stuff. This one is gonna be quite the surprise tomorrow for CT folks seeing forecasts of flurries and coatings last night. Easy advisories at least back to the CTRV Gotta watch for that sneaky NW band Scooter discussed yesterday. 3-6 for WEHA maybe can sneak a 5-6" here and 8" for you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 6 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Seriously though, the trajectory look ideal for someone in Plymouth County to hit it on the high side. I saw the potential yesterday. I may favor just SE of here, but I'm watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Great stuff Chris yea a true Messenger special (RIP) but we have Diane "No poles" in place. Hopefully the GFS bias with Miller A hasn't changed My gut says so. We know it has a SE bias. This storm will have convection that will feed into that bias. And you can already see spurious vort maxes being generated over the Gulf Stream. We toss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Well time to head in and weenie out a bit. Will diagnose then. Nice posts Chris. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 For us down here in the NYC metro I am hoping for the north and west trend to continue with today's 12z model suite after taking a bit of a step back this morning on the NAM/GFS which could be just noise. At this point though no one in the NYC metro should be expecting more then a few inches of snow with the exception of Long Island. I am keeping expectations muted for the time being. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 I'm sure glad I didn't wait up for the GFS last night. Not that GC was ever in the game, but there's nothing to watch here--and really nothing for Maine either (though I suspect my hood there might pick up 1 or 2). Congrats 495 belt-east. It looks like a good event. Enjoy your snow, James. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 3 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: My gut says so. We know it has a SE bias. This storm will have convection that will feed into that bias. And you can already see spurious vort maxes being generated over the Gulf Stream. We toss. WOW!! Not only bashing your brothers..but now tossing the GFS!! Never thought I'd see the day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Just now, OceanStWx said: My gut says so. We know it has a SE bias. This storm will have convection that will feed into that bias. And you can already see spurious vort maxes being generated over the Gulf Stream. We toss. Nice. Normally I would be sleeping on Friday as its my RDO but our 911 dispatch Center called me at 4 am to let me know there was a 2 hr delay at work lol. I was nice. But immediately sat and watched it snow while digging deep into modeling. You have it nailed. James FTW. Naked snow angels with Phil at noon Sunday on the Cape Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: Nice. Normally I would be sleeping on Friday as its my RDO but our 911 dispatch Center called me at 4 am to let me know there was a 2 hr delay at work lol. I was nice. But immediately sat and watched it snow while digging deep into modeling. You have it nailed. James FTW. Naked snow angels with Phil at noon Sunday on the Cape King James was always looking better than modeled on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 5 hours ago, Morch Madness said: That includes some from first wave - here is second wave only .75-1.0 qpf almost back to river! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I saw the potential yesterday. I may favor just SE of here, but I'm watching. I think right over your area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 I'm very confident in at least 8" and confident in at least 12" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: .75-1.0 qpf almost back to river! Check your conversions again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Just now, dendrite said: Check your conversions again. ?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: .75-1.0 qpf almost back to river! Its in mm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Well, maybe I'm in a good spot to catch this one...I've also been waiting for OES...haven't gotten any since I moved here last March. Pickles and I chased OES once...it didn't ever get heavy, we drove up and down route 3 and found the best band was near exit 5...that was before I lived in Plymouth so it was a long drive out and back...midnight to 3am adventure... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: ?? 0.30 to 0.40" back to the river. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 But the mid levels look great on the Ukie too. The inner most closed H8 contour tickling the elbow of the Cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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