ORH_wxman Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: That's like a 300mb+ thick DGZ too. Ray's gas could rise and cause 20:1 ratios. There's def gonna be a weenie band west of the main QPF max where someone gets like 10" on 0.43" of liquid or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 I feel like this storm could have one of those weenie secondary or tertiary bands. Not necessarily all the stuff we are talking about..but maybe one of those H5 bands that occur far west where areas west and east of the band have 2" and they have 4. something like that. I feel like there is good fronto in the H6-H5 layer. This is rather high...but I think something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Just now, ORH_wxman said: There's def gonna be a weenie band west of the main QPF max where someone gets like 10" on 0.43" of liquid or something. I agree. I don't see why TOL-ORH should feel sad right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 30 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said: RGEM with the goods from Boston, SE to the cape.. should be warnings going up pretty soon probably Boston, SE, I'm not sure if NW are needed. I'd stay watch and advisory outside 128, warning inside, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: That's like a 300mb+ thick DGZ too. Ray's gas could rise and cause 20:1 ratios. hi, what does the 300mb plus mean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Man you'd be hardpressed to find much discernible difference between the RGEM and GFS. This is the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 meanwhile south central Mississippi gets 6-12" on the gfs...odd winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said: hi, what does the 300mb plus mean? 300 millibars. Bacially from near 850-500mb or so, which is 350 millibars. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 28 minutes ago, Spanks45 said: The one thing I have noticed recently with the Nam and now the new RGEM, is the redevelopment on the western side of the precip as it moves into NE. You can really see this when looking at the 700 level moisture, you can see it almost build westward once it hits this latitude. The meso models showed this too with the first wave this morning. Since I am on the western side of both the storms it makes a difference for me. With the new RGEM, 0.3 - 0.35 of qpf could get me 6" with ratios over here in far western CT. agree, good point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I agree. I don't see why TOL-ORH should feel sad right now. We smile Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: That's like a 300mb+ thick DGZ too. Ray's gas could rise and cause 20:1 ratios. Hopefully with the deeply saturated DGZ, the subsidence won't be Boxing day, Dec 2003, PD II ish.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: agree, good point. I noticed it before bed last night, when I got up this morning there was maybe 1/4" at 5 am....then watch it redeveloping to the west and snowed heavily for a couple hours picking almost 2" of fluff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Folks thought that event that crushed ME was a tough forecast around here, but I think this one is a bit*h. That one was clear cut NBD to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Folks thought that event that crushed ME was a tough forecast around here, but I think this one is a bit*h. That one was clear cut NBD to me. You still could get a decent snow (warning perhaps?) depending on where banding sets up. But yeah...exhaust is seemingly always an issue for your hood. I dunno...2-7" for your casa? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 6, 2017 Author Share Posted January 6, 2017 First call for this area is 4-8.... would like to see another tick of two west over the next 24 hours to go higher than that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: You still could get a decent snow (warning perhaps?) depending on where banding sets up. But yeah...exhaust is seemingly always an issue for your hood. I dunno...2-7" for your casa? That is why I don't JP much...caught in between the coast and interior. I live the perfectly wrong distance from the ocean.....just far enough so that it never helps me, but just close enough for it to hurt me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: First call for this area is 4-8.... would like to see another tick of two west over the next 24 hours to go higher than that 8-12", perhaps higher if we get some solid banding which we may. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 GGEM looks west of 00z...not a whole lot more to say about it though that hasn't already been hashed out in the descriptions of the RGEM and other guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 ...the 06z NAM was farther E by anal ticks than this run though - certainly by sensible weather gradient. Edit, actually the 12z was farther E - my bad. I always shirk my time stamps.. .But, the point about the trend for back off starting in 06z is in there. We'll see if it has legs... Frankly, I like the RGEM better inside of 48 hours as a general rule. in any case, one thing that may be monitored over the nearer term is the amount of convection that fires off in the deep S along the leading edge of the baroclinic axis. One thing that used to puzzle models was the amount of manufactured latent heat release and it's effects immediately down stream as it circulated/exhausts into the down stream ridging. in this case, there isn't much downstream ridging to the naked eye, but ...trust me, it has to be there by physical wave mechanics. that said, ever so slight tickes NW of the isopleths results when actual real-time sampling of said atmosphere amid and immediately downstream of said convection actually happens. it's not a huge science-fiction leap to see a NW bump or adjustment as this thing climbs in latitude ; the effect has been noted in the past. P flights have been used to sample that region of the Atlantic for a reason. i don't have a lot of confidence that this factor will be the storm enthusiasts savior ... but it just adds to this. In the end it is all still just a needle threader type of event... it's got to spatially fit through a key-hole of lat and lon... possibly offset some by intensity over all, as well as whether the models are correctly processing some of the mlv mechanics over the nw arc as others have questioned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Just now, Baroclinic Zone said: 8-12", perhaps higher if we get some solid banding which we may. Yes. 4-8" is too low there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 The GFS and NAM have a sig back here with some nice omega around 850mb after 00z tomorrow. Almost like some weak low level forcing hangs on after the better mid level stuff moves through. Not sure what exactly is the mechanism. Any thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I live the perfectly wrong distance from the ocean.....just far enough so that it never helps me, but just close enough for it to hurt me. Ray, southern NH, fair to say 1-3"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJHUB Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 PVD looking good I would imagine? 6-8? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, CT Rain said: The GFS and NAM have a sig back here with some nice omega around 850mb after 00z tomorrow. Almost like some weak low level forcing hangs on after the better mid level stuff moves through. Not sure what exactly is the mechanism. Any thoughts? Perhaps related to the ULL moving thru from the GLs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 3 minutes ago, CT Rain said: The GFS and NAM have a sig back here with some nice omega around 850mb after 00z tomorrow. Almost like some weak low level forcing hangs on after the better mid level stuff moves through. Not sure what exactly is the mechanism. Any thoughts? It looks like a weak inverted trough sig around that time. It's around the same time the vortmax is passing just SE of there too. Could be the type of thing where you have 25 to 1 cotton balls at 2 mile vis falling for a few hours after the main stuff is east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 4 minutes ago, 512high said: Ray, southern NH, fair to say 1-3"? Near the border, I would say so, yes....maybe even like 2-4". I'll have a final map late tonight. Gonna get creative with meso details. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Near the border, I would say so, yes....maybe even like 2-4". I'll have a final map late tonight. Gonna get creative with meso details. great thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 9 minutes ago, CT Rain said: The GFS and NAM have a sig back here with some nice omega around 850mb after 00z tomorrow. Almost like some weak low level forcing hangs on after the better mid level stuff moves through. Not sure what exactly is the mechanism. Any thoughts? Yeah I saw that. Almost seems like the nose of the 850 jet helps, and then just lingering weak frontogenesis with the s/w passing through. Looks like Currier and Ives stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: It looks like a weak inverted trough sig around that time. It's around the same time the vortmax is passing just SE of there too. Could be the type of thing where you have 25 to 1 cotton balls at 2 mile vis falling for a few hours after the main stuff is east. Yeah that makes the most sense. Interesting stuff and tomorrow has some pretty good fluff potential. Based on the GFS/NAM I may go straight 15:1 off model QPF given the really deep DGZ. I rarely do that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 4 minutes ago, 512high said: great thanks! I think you may do surprisingly well. Like 4-6+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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