HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Pull this a little further W at 0z and coastal weenies will start fretting about p-type and ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 lets get the good dancers to hit the dancefloor first before we go studio 54 on this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 3 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Pull this a little further W at 0z and coastal weenies will start fretting about p-type and ratios. So true though, There is at least one 1 would like to see it rain on though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 9 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Pull this a little further W at 0z and coastal weenies will start fretting about p-type and ratios. When this brings precip issues to the cape, it will get my attention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 5 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: lets get the good dancers to hit the dancefloor first before we go studio 54 on this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: When this brings precip issues to the cape, it will get my attention. this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: When this brings precip issues to the cape, it will get my attention. This. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 The NAM's low pressure track was not really that NW of the 18z run... not appreciably so to even mention. However, the pressure pattern "bulged" more to the NW, along with, the QPF field expanded along with - those two are giving the illusion of being NW ...but 'technically' ... the correct statement is that the 00z run depicts the low pressure's sensible impact farther NW. Now ...I'm not sure that's a good thing or a bad thing; I suspect so long as it's snowing ...most in here at this particular moment will be satisfied. The take away for me is that this is the fourth cycle in the row now where there was a complexion shift farther west.... painfully slowly. It's not inconceivable that this could just up and cut 50 naut mi closer and expand that pressure pattern/QPF that much more by go time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 minute ago, moneypitmike said: exact scene i was thinking about lol. nice....then its, "go to bed tiny dancer." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 I have to admit ... as a morbid curiosity, if not wanton sadist act, I wonder what James' posting tact will be if or when this thing misses after all entirely... That might be interesting to witness - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 13 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Even the NAM soundings are sick. Banding is mad cra They always seem to do this with these southern stream systems. Love watching the models do this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Looking at the bad hourly panels on the RGEM, it looks like it's NW of 18z but not as bullish as the NAM. Good hit eastern areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Nice hit for eastern areas on the RGEM. Shifted west from 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 I have to admit ... as a morbid curiosity, if not wanton sadist act, I wonder what James' posting tact will be if or when this thing misses after all entirely... That might be interesting to witness -You are a sick sob Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: The NAM's low pressure track was not really that NW of the 18z run... not appreciably so to even mention. However, the pressure pattern "bulged" more to the NW, along with, the QPF field expanded along with - those two are giving the illusion of being NW ...but 'technically' ... the correct statement is that the 00z run depicts the low pressure's sensible impact farther NW. Now ...I'm not sure that's a good thing or a bad thing; I suspect so long as it's snowing ...most in here at this particular moment will be satisfied. The take away for me is that this is the fourth cycle in the row now where there was a complexion shift farther west.... painfully slowly. It's not inconceivable that this could just up and cut 50 naut mi closer and expand that pressure pattern/QPF that much more by go time. Here's the difference and that jet streak keeps amping up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 RGEM is a crush job for E MA/RI/E CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 miller Bs tend to nudge se and As nudge nw....but I cant see this come much further than this nam run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Just now, JC-CT said: You are a sick sob It ain't missing James I will lay good money on that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: miller Bs tend to nudge se and As nudge nw....but I cant see this come much further than this nam run. why...or why not? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 I'm not even necessarily looking purely at qpf on solutions like the RGEM and NAM. The mid levels tell the story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Johnno Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: RGEM is a crush job for E MA/RI/E CT. The last part of that statement sums up the past few winters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 4 minutes ago, JC-CT said: You are a sick sob Its like someone with a pin at a birthday party with balloons Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I'm not even necessarily looking purely at qpf on solutions like the RGEM and NAM. The mid levels tell the story. Yes, Where those end up, Folks NW will rejoice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 9 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: why...or why not? not sure why i cant post the h5 nam but trough its relatively neutral with the pv lobe still lagging behind swinging east. for west zones or further north, we need it to dig on the backside to get the tug left. otherwise, what we are hoping for is just a more nw precip shield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 minute ago, dryslot said: Yes, Where those end up, Folks NW will rejoice There's certain times where you undercut the QPF and then there are certain times where you might augment it higher (or at least the snow totals higher) based on the mid-level look...this is one of those latter scenarios as modeled on the NAM/RGEM. It might show a place like BOS getting like 6-8", but in reality, the mid-levels would probably argue for a stripe of double digits in that zone. That's obviously if that type of solution is what we have on the eve of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 5 minutes ago, dryslot said: Yes, Where those end up, Folks NW will rejoice Someone well outside the bullseye could end up with .25" qpf and 15:1 ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 7 minutes ago, dryslot said: Yes, Where those end up, Folks NW will rejoice Mid level magic. I still don't think I see much more than a coating to an inch But maybe folks like Ray can ring the bell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: not sure why i cant post the h5 nam but trough its relatively neutral with the pv lobe still lagging behind swinging east. for west zones or further north, we need it to dig on the backside to get the tug left. otherwise, what we are hoping for is just a more nw precip shield. thanks man. hoping for one of those well inland weenie bands, sort of like tonight but much more intense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Mid level magic. I still don't think I see much more than a coating to an inch But maybe folks like Ray can ring the bell You could go 2-4" with only a small shift NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Mid level magic. I still don't think I see much more than a coating to an inch But maybe folks like Ray can ring the bell If i got an inch or two, It would be like 6"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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