CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 2 minutes ago, JC-CT said: On the GFS, would that imply around the CTRV? I actually didn't see the fields on the 18z run. Just got home. Ctrv is on the line, but you also need to have some lift in the DGZ. Some models showed a disconnect out that way. Lift not exactly inline with the DGZ. But I have seen models put out a good band well NW of the low, in that H7-H5 layer. The key is looking for good lift near H5 and also looking to see if the thermal packing is just to the south. You don't want it well offshore, but near the a coast would work. That helps induce a circulation back NW into the cold air. That storm last March was a great example of a weenie band well NW of the low. From Kevin to SE NH jacked in that when all the models had cape cod. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 10 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Kinda fun being on the outside looking in for an event like this. Just for the people watching. This one is a doozy to read and watch from afar. Emotions run wild. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 2 minutes ago, CT Rain said: You can see how nice the forcing is that the GFS is insisting on developing that weak inverted trough. Synoptic scale lift with that southern stream s/w is trying to force some kind of surface reflection. I think a more widespread light event is more likely than the GFS's inverted trough. Nice snow growth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: I actually didn't see the fields on the 18z run. Just got home. Ctrv is on the line, but you also need to have some lift in the DGZ. Some models showed a disconnect out that way. Lift not exactly inline with the DGZ. But I have seen models put out a good band well NW of the low, in that H7-H5 layer. The key is looking for good lift near H5 and also looking to see if the thermal packing is just to the south. You don't want it well offshore, but near the a coast would work. That helps induce a circulation back NW into the cold air. That storm last March was a great example of a weenie band well NW of the low. From Kevin to SE NH jacked in that when all the models had cape cod. Great post Scoots. I don't remember that storm. What was it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 9 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: I'd hit it So would I...2-4" up this way lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 4 minutes ago, powderfreak said: So would I...2-4" up this way lol. Meanwhile in Maine roofs and barns are collapsing as they get a taste of CT's 2011/2015 type snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 11 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Great post Scoots. I don't remember that storm. What was it? March 21. By no means am I saying that will happen. Just mentioning. I'm looking at the GFS, jeez at hr 54 you could argue a slightly better srn s/w, but the surface reflection is definitely not as concentric. There are some signs of the comma head on the GFS, but also the precip in SE MA looks like a cstl front scenario from NE winds vs N winds, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 5, 2017 Author Share Posted January 5, 2017 I don't want to sound like James.... but looking more closely early on at the GFS I actually thought it would produce something better. Well see what 00z does but I wouldn't real call it a negative shift... although 10-20 miles will mean a lot to everybody still 2 days away... this is far from settled I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 I just looked aat the GFS 500 and it looks to me like the apex of the ridge is north of Boise, which is a good spot for the MA and SNE no? That looks to have enough amplitude and in a good location, no? The issue is that there is nothing to slow it down and bend it back once off the midatlantic coast. Could a stronger southern sw create enough ridging to tuck it in a bit? Or do we just need the low over the Midwest to back off? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 2 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: I just looked aat the GFS 500 and it looks to me like the apex of the ridge is north of Boise, which is a good spot for the MA and SNE no? That looks to have enough amplitude and in a good location, no? The issue is that there is nothing to slow it down and bend it back once off the midatlantic coast. Could a stronger southern sw create enough ridging to tuck it in a bit? Or do we just need the low over the Midwest to back off? Yes, that ridge location is actually a very good spot for New England. The problem is the height field is a little flattened out behind tomorrows system and the lakes shortwave acts more like a kicker than a phaser. The answer is yes, we can overcome those deficiencies a couple different ways...the most obvious being a stronger southern stream shortwave, or the PNA ridge becoming more amplified which makes the downstream flow more meridional which in turn allows the trough to amplify a bit more. Clock is obviously ticking rapidly though on getting more changes. the 12z changes today were surprisingly robust for a system this close, but given the extra uncertainty (I had brought this up yesterday with the PNA ridge) in this system, we had a better chance of seeing changes closer to the event than we typically see. We'll have to hope for one more push. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Comparing the 12z GFS run to 06z, the changes out west were negligible. In fact, you could argue the ridge in the PAC NWwas ever so slightly flatter out west, and yet we saw those changes. The changes I saw started early with tomorrow's s/w and then the Plains s/w. If you compared hr 12 at 12z and hr 18 at 06z, the Rockies s/w approaching Denver already looked better. My attention is more on this feature. I think the other factors like what happens in the GL with that s/w and the PNA ridge are pieces of this whole puzzle. Important ones, but we want to see that s/w down south look a bit sharper and the height field in the east respond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 I also think that vort streak out i the Plains by 00z Sunday will play a role in helping to sharpen the longer wave trough in the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Comparing the 12z GFS run to 06z, the changes out west were negligible. In fact, you could argue the ridge in the PAC NWwas ever so slightly flatter out west, and yet we saw those changes. The changes I saw started early with tomorrow's s/w and then the Plains s/w. If you compared hr 12 at 12z and hr 18 at 06z, the Rockies s/w approaching Denver already looked better. My attention is more on this feature. I think the other factors like what happens in the GL with that s/w and the PNA ridge are pieces of this whole puzzle. Important ones, but we want to see that s/w down south look a bit sharper and the height field in the east respond. Agreed. One thing to also keep in mind is the western CONUS has produced some mighty shortwaves this year. Most of the time it resulted in GLC's or Midwestern snowstorms but hopefully this theme will help us to get this guy up the coast.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: Great post Scoots. I don't remember that storm. What was it? That was a big bust (relatively) in SE Mass that ended up with almost the same as most of CT when WSWs were up and models were spitting out over an inch of liquid on the QPF panels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 3 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: id be concerned for outdoor pets and livestock. we may not be able to squeeze milk from the teets for weeks. LOL. I'm resigned to my 'partly cloudy' forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 HI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 4 minutes ago, Snow88 said: HI I wish they were more useful and could be trusted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 6, 2017 Author Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 minute ago, dryslot said: I wish they were more useful and could be trusted Yeah... that's a huge storm down this way. Too bad it's wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Yeah... that's a huge storm down this way. Too bad it's wrong What makes you think it's wrong? It's funny how people just assume that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 6, 2017 Author Share Posted January 6, 2017 Just now, Snow88 said: What makes you think it's wrong? It's funny how people just assume that. Maybe "wrong" isn't the right word... but probably overdone. Decent jog NW.... which is really the only thing I may take from that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Maybe "wrong" isn't the right word... but probably overdone. Decent jog NW.... which is really the only thing I may take from that The only thing i look at them for is sometimes the Nam will follow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 4 minutes ago, dryslot said: The only thing i look at them for is sometimes the Nam will follow Exactly. Can't be a bad sign to have this trend though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 9 minutes ago, Snow88 said: What makes you think it's wrong? It's funny how people just assume that. Because they've proven to be **** since they changed the models that were in it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 minute ago, weathafella said: Exactly. Can't be a bad sign to have this trend though. No its not Jerry, Not at all, I hope this works out for you down there, Been a pretty lean winter so far for your area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 3 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Because they've proven to be **** since they changed the models that were in it. Yeah. This. Doesnt mean they they are wrong every time, just that here is really no use in basing a forecast off them unless there is significant support from other guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Srefs have steadily moved NW the past 4 runs for just about entire I95 corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 3 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Srefs have steadily moved NW the past 4 runs for just about entire I95 corridor. Big shift northwest from this morning eery similiar to Jonas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 6, 2017 Author Share Posted January 6, 2017 Just now, Snow88 said: Big shift northwest from this morning eery similiar to Jonas Meh.... this storm isn't that regardless how far it comes NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 I'll post some thoughts later after some of the 00z guidance....tough call....tougher than the last event imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Southern stream s/w on the 0z nam looks more amped then the 18z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.