Cold Rain Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 11 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said: It's one of those years where the pattern is back and forth. I think so as well. Winter will be back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southernskimmer Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 19 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said: It's one of those years where the pattern is back and forth. I would go as far to say as it would be abnormal for those of us in the SE if this were not the case Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 Probably overdone...but GEFS doesn't think we even drop below 40 after tomorrow the next 2 weeks. EPS is similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 6 minutes ago, packbacker said: Probably overdone...but GEFS doesn't think we even drop below 40 after tomorrow the next 2 weeks. EPS is similar. The GEFS and EPS also unanimously gave me 10" of snow as it was pouring down pink rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 I think we'll be below 40 this weekend. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 1 hour ago, Cold Rain said: I think so as well. Winter will be back. Thought about that too. We've had 2 good shots, windows of opportunity. So we should get another window late jan/early Feb then maybe small 2-3 day window early march espeacilly mtns. That seems to be the rythym of the pattern cycle. So if that's the case those aren't great odds to score again but then again neither was this past weekend and we struck gold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 Warmer temps will establish itself in the next several days to weeks with the cold temps retreating into the arctic. Next shot would only be late this month into early next month at least. See yall in a few weeks! enjoy the mild temps while they are here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 2 hours ago, Cold Rain said: The GEFS and EPS also unanimously gave me 10" of snow as it was pouring down pink rain. Lol right! Yeah we should just trust the models 7 plus days out because they show warmth never mind them busting hard 24 hours before a big storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 3 hours ago, Cold Rain said: I think so as well. Winter will be back. Just wish we could get cold to stick around for when we do get moisture, hate going up in temps for two weeks. Maybe we'll track one the first of Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 This almost looks like March 2012 to me when all the cold air basically left the US and Canada. We obviously won't make it to the low and mid 80's with this, but i'm betting we see the 70's for a few days. I still think we will get a couple of more shots in Feb, but I'm afraid it may be ice then. We are overdue for a major icestorm in the CAD areas of NC, SC, and GA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 3 hours ago, packbacker said: Probably overdone...but GEFS doesn't think we even drop below 40 after tomorrow the next 2 weeks. EPS is similar. This looks A LOT like Jan of 1989 except for the snowstorm this last weekend. I still think this winter goes a lot like that year, which means we get more chances at mainly ice sometime in Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 Models have been fine...except when they show snow for Raleigh. We are well on our way to an AN Dec and Jan, +AO, -PNA and much below average snowfall for RDU. February isn't fixing that. Agree with everyone on a few BN days in Feb, light ice event for Raleigh. I am sure everyone else will rack up on the snow though. One more day until the much welcome warm up. CFS looking solid for Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 Canadian ensembles first to bark pattern change late month. Saw a post in MA thread from twitter. See if it has any legs next few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 4 hours ago, Cold Rain said: The GEFS and EPS also unanimously gave me 10" of snow as it was pouring down pink rain. Of course..if they are going to bust, you better believe it will be on snow lol. The thing is it seems like most of the time the models show warmth they get it right. I know we ended up being colder recently than the models were showing a few weeks ago but if i recall correctly, there was at least cold in canada to tap.. but this time they essentially evacuate all the cold air on this side of the hemisphere altogether. The overwhelming warmth being shown over pretty much all of North America is truly extraordinary and one of the most disgusting projections I've can recall for mid to late january. Going to be a painful few weeks if they even come close to verifying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 This is more medium range, but the modeled high pressure in New England later on, looks to be in a really good spot for some damming. Source region is cold as well. Can't imagine not feeling any effects from this set-up. Let's see if the models trend colder for the cad areas as we go forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 Latest weeklies just out. Don't know what is up with these new upgraded EPS weeklies...they just want spew out these cold east patterns, aleutian low, PAC ridge run after run. Riding the CFS...been more correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 9, 2017 Share Posted January 9, 2017 Latest weeklies just out. Don't know what is up with these new upgraded EPS weeklies...they just want spew out these cold east patterns, aleutian low, PAC ridge run after run. Riding the CFS...been more correct. lol CFS over Weeklies, that's a first for me. Blockbuster pattern for first half of Feb, we'll see who wins the showdown!Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 13 minutes ago, Jon said: lol CFS over Weeklies, that's a first for me. Blockbuster pattern for first half of Feb, we'll see who wins the showdown! Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk We will revisit this soon...weeklies will back off that ridiculous modeled pattern for Feb. #CFSv2FTW #LOLWeeklies #NinaSER Only thing the weeklies have correct is a warm next 3 weeks #puntJan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 1 minute ago, packbacker said: We will revisit this soon...weeklies will back off that ridiculous modeled pattern for Feb. #CFSv2FTW #LOLWeeklies #NinaSER Only thing the weeklies have correct is a warm next 3 weeks #puntJan But how many times have we had a warm or cold spell that last more than three weeks. I'm sure it has happened but it would be more to the norm to have the pattern flip cold right after this warm three weeks, and not go four or more weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 The best part about the weeklies is we'll all have good tans before #FabFeb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: The best part about the weeklies is we'll all have good tans before #FabFeb. Have to get the lawnmower going. Probably good time to aerate and overseed. #FailFeb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 Tweets User Actions Following Joe BastardiVerified account@BigJoeBastardi 10mb rapid warming set up for major eastern trough later Jan and Feb after "thaw" 40C rise in 8 days over NW Ter Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi 3m3 minutes ago Euro supports our ideas of major trough developing on east coast late Jan and FEB. Why not, look at 14 and 15.. was WARM JAN 12-21! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 1 hour ago, Lookout said: Of course..if they are going to bust, you better believe it will be on snow lol. The thing is it seems like most of the time the models show warmth they get it right. I know we ended up being colder recently than the models were showing a few weeks ago but if i recall correctly, there was at least cold in canada to tap.. but this time they essentially evacuate all the cold air on this side of the hemisphere altogether. The overwhelming warmth being shown over pretty much all of North America is truly extraordinary and one of the most disgusting projections I've can recall for mid to late january. Going to be a painful few weeks if they even come close to verifying. Yeah you're right about that. It is pretty concerning to see our entire side of the globe en fuego. Hopefully, that doesn't last all that long. It doesn't have to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 9 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: It is pretty concerning to see our entire side of the globe en fuego. concerning and disconcerting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 51 minutes ago, pcbjr said: concerning and disconcerting Yes sir. Maybe when we finally turn things around, it'll stick for awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 1 hour ago, Cold Rain said: Yeah you're right about that. It is pretty concerning to see our entire side of the globe en fuego. Hopefully, that doesn't last all that long. It doesn't have to. Funny you never see something this extreme the other way in the dead of summer lol. 3rd night in a row almost full moon shining down on fresh snowpack, inhaling clear fresh artic air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 Just now, NCSNOW said: Funny you never see something this extreme the other way in the dead of summer lol. 3rd night in a row almost full moon shining down on fresh snowpack, inhaling clear fresh artic air. No matter how this winter turns out, these past 3 days have been awesome with minimal snow melt. Massive icecycles have formed on the gutters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 Yep...looking at the end of EPS today reminded me of what we started seeing mid/end Nov. This time we get PNA help.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 55 minutes ago, Wow said: No matter how this winter turns out, these past 3 days have been awesome with minimal snow melt. Massive icecycles have formed on the gutters. Totally agree! Don't know if I need to move north or not, but this has been absolutely awesome to both feel and look like winter. Having to actually put on some gear when going out, even in the day, seeing the trees and ground stay white for a few days, - man it's been nice! I find myself wishing this was our normal winter and can;t help but feel a little depressed about the upcoming 60s. Gonna be hard indeed to go back to basically a fall type feel. Oh end of Jan, don't linger! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunBlade Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 This happens every year. Seems like around the second week of January we get our cool shot then blaze for a few weeks and look forward to February. Unfortunately it seems like the real cold is always two or three weeks away and all we get is a two or three day shot before warming back up. I remember in the late 90's we had some awesome winters with one giving a good enough stretch of cold to freeze our pond enough to walk on. Probably a bad idea. I miss winters like that. I think having that for 3 months would get old but it would be nice to get two week stretches with real cold and real shots at good snows. Every year I think to myself this will be the year. Maybe, hopefully, February can pull off some good stuff for us since it's historically our best month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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