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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2017


buckeyefan1

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2 minutes ago, Wow said:

12z GFS coming in stronger with the SW low and thus further north again. Enjoy the ride!

A couple of things it appears at 500mb.  1 there is a closed vort in northeast MN and 2, the vort is more consolidated in the southwest without secondary interactions right on its tail.  The interaction between these two items are helping to shift the entire setup a bit more north.

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4 minutes ago, tnweathernut said:

A couple of things it appears at 500mb.  1 there is a closed vort in northeast MN and 2, the vort is more consolidated in the southwest without secondary interactions right on its tail.  The interaction between these two items are helping to shift the entire setup a bit more north.

No just phased into with the polar jet too early while it was still over the SW.  That basically means warm air floods in ahead, and colder air behind.  You want the cold air to follow behind the northern wave as it passes around the PV rather than it diving into the SW low and picking it up.

It's quite a jump from previous couple of runs.  You want to see a stout SW low but not phase with the polar jet energy - that has to pass by.

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10 minutes ago, Wow said:

No just phased into with the polar jet too early while it was still over the SW.  That basically means warm air floods in ahead, and colder air behind.  You want the cold air to follow behind the northern wave as it passes around the PV rather than it diving into the SW low and picking it up.

It's quite a jump from previous couple of runs.  You want to see a stout SW low but not phase with the polar jet energy - that has to pass by.

I hope everyone tracking this storm sees and understands what your saying. It's real simple and you have done a awesome job explaining our outcome really depends on what happens with the ns energy from the polar jet. We need it to phase in with lake cutter lp coming t h rough Sunday into Monday after it establishes itself as our 50/50. 

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16 minutes ago, Wow said:

No just phased into with the polar jet too early while it was still over the SW.  That basically means warm air floods in ahead, and colder air behind.  You want the cold air to follow behind the northern wave as it passes around the PV rather than it diving into the SW low and picking it up.

It's quite a jump from previous couple of runs.  You want to see a stout SW low but not phase with the polar jet energy - that has to pass by.

Thanks, I think I was trying to say something similar, but I am sure it was poorly worded (or maybe i am just wrong, wouldn't be the first time).  

It just looked to me like the northern stream piece closed off, which didn't let the northern jet swing through, and slowed it down creating the interaction with the southern stream.  I definitely agree it was a lot different at 500 than previous runs.

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On a side note, the indices look a little better today:

AO - Looks to go strongly negative (GREAT)

NAO - Looks to go and stay negative (GOOD)

PNA - Stays negative and even strongly negative (BAD)

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml

EPO - Stays negative but does head towards neutral in the LR (at least GOOD early)

ftp://ftp.cdc.noaa.gov/Public/gbates/reforecast2/teleconn/4indices.png

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11 minutes ago, MichaelJ said:

Well at least we didn't start a storm thread! Trends look really bad now and you know the saying "the trend is NOT your friend"

Yeah, a storm thread at this point would have been an embarrassment. Still have time on our side however.

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5 minutes ago, MichaelJ said:

Well at least we didn't start a storm thread! Trends look really bad now and you know the saying "the trend is NOT your friend"

While the pattern is not really all that great for a big winter storm, it's still close enough for small variations to make a big difference.  Something like a shortwave not being sampled well or a model amping up one piece of energy vs. another can make huge differences at these leads.  My gut feeling is that we'll get some sort of Miller Bish look.  I doubt we see a big wound up storm heading toward the Lakes.  On the other hand, this nice suppressed overruning look that we search for every year that never pans out may be difficult to come by also.  Still plenty of options legitimately on the table at this point.  But my instinct tells me that more liquid is likely to fall than frozen for all but the upper portions of the SE.

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