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Southeast Sanitarium - A Place to Vent

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On 12/11/2018 at 11:05 PM, Iceagewhereartthou said:

Let me preface this by saying this would be true of anywhere, but I think it's very true of the upstate. If you haven't lived here, it's hard to appreciate just how strange the climate can be from county to county and town to town.

There is something about the western upstate (west of Spartanburg) and NEGA that makes it really hard to get a good snowfall, despite having several ingredients you would normally consider good for snowfall relative to the rest of the upstate. The counties of Oconne, Pickens, and Greenville are closest to the mountains, slightly higher elevations, among the farthest North in the state, and many times the coldest in the state. The elevaton changes cause some oddities and many outlying areas are significanly colder at night that the urban areas, even though those are generally colder than other urban areas of the state. Being in Easley, I am generally 5-10 degrees colder than Greenville on clear nightsjust tonight I left DT at 39 degrees and it was 31 when I arrived at my house 20 minutes later. But this isnt true when systems come through. 

Despite these apparent advantages, the western upstate routinely fares worse in winter storms than eastern, and sometimes even southern, upstate locales. The onyl systems that come to mind that we have fared better on were Jan 87, Jan 88, and Jan 2011; all of which were cold snowsorms where we werent waiting on cold or timing. We also did better on March 93 (and Jan 96), but that was simply a placement factor, below us was mix to rain. Most other big storms for our area resulted in either a min for the wetsern upstate or a complete skip. This storm, last Dec storm, Jan last year, March 2017, Feb 2014, Feb 2004 (2 feet eastern upstate flurries western) 2003 (CLT 10 inches, western upstate 2-3), Jan 2000 (aka Carolina Crusher - flurries here), the list goes on and on, from year to year. We're too far north for southern sliders (1973, 1989, last year CHS coastal snow), too far West for coastal snows and Noreaters (generally), not high enough for Miller B and apps runners, too far west for CAD events without a crazy warm nose, too far east for TN valley snows that get MS/AL/GA/TN/NC. We typically get the most rainfall throughout the year due to mtn proximity, but suffer dryslots in winter setups. Were typically colder/cooler 95% of the time but suffer warmnoses worse than anybody. Look at a list of largest snowfalls in SC history and Greenville/Pickens/Oconee cities are behind. Rock Hill, Florence, Columbia, Spartanburg, Gaffney have all had larger snowfalls, including many smaller towns across the state. Heck, even MYB had like 12-14 form the 89 storm. 

Here are a couple reasons why I think all this is true. We have taller mtns on the NNE, N, NW, W, and even WWS. This creates a lower lying pocket ( though still higher than the rest of the upstate) that makes it very difficult for CAD and CAA to penetrate. CAA coming over the mtns either results in downslope warming, or skips over us to other points in the upstate outside the eddy area the mtns create (similar to the eddy effect in a river except here the air skips over the immediate lee, cooling areas further away from the pocket). In CAD situations lke this last one; the cold takes too long to work this far SW (or never does) but is colder in eastern upstate, and for longer, so they get more snow. In Miller Bs we have too much downslope warming and the darn warmnose, that is much worse here than N,NE, or East of us. We also are in the perfect min area for many coastal transfer setups- we lose the energy from the original low as it approaches and the coastal low takes over. So we don't get as much as areas further west because of the loss of energy, but then we miss out on the energy from the new coastal low as well, that places farther east get in on. And within the western upstate are areas that perform even worse realtive to the rest of it; with Clemson being one of them.

This is a great place to live for many reasons, but it is an incredibly frustrating place to live for winter weather lovers, even compared to the rest of the upstate, let alone NC.    

Ice age, I live north of six mile just south of hwy. 11 and you are absolutely correct! This area of the upstate gets screwed so much when it comes to winter weather it will make your head spin. So hard to take when you just a few miles away. Just like sunday and in almost all events for example the travelers rest area, where it was covered in snow and ice and you got next to nothing. This happens all the freakin time!!! And, it just happened here again and was even more local just last weekend. We got maybe 2-3 inches of snow and sleet and all was pretty much gone by late sunday while my daughter in pickens sent me a picture late that day and they still had close to 5 inches of snow on the ground. It really is crazy the way the mountains effect our local eco-climate. I have heard references to our area being called the "Thermal Belt" in the past. I asked Lookout several years ago to explain what happens over and over again and why the warm air bubble seems to always parks its sorry behind over us during most winter events and he explained it to a tee:

This is my lookout screw zone bubble in full effect. For those that aren't aware, it's when high pressure is northwest of the mountains which initially causes downslope flow and warming ahead of the system while at the same time causes an area of convergence (northeast winds over the upstate and northwest winds over ga) in the upper savannah river valley in the low levels and sometimes even as high as 850mb...which causes this area to be the very last place to get low level cold air advection. It can be absolutely maddening and can seriously screw this area...and it's happened a number of times. Some of my most painful memories of screw jobs involve heavy rain at 35 or 36 degrees while it was snowing to the east, north, and west..and even southwest...and a bubble of warm air up to 850mb sitting over me that never moved or was overcame. In order to avoid this, this area needs to have more high pressure to the northeast and northeast low level flow sooner ahead of the system or a stronger push of cold air from the northwest before.

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5 hours ago, NorthernUpstateSC said:

Ice age, I live north of six mile just south of hwy. 11 and you are absolutely correct! This area of the upstate gets screwed so much when it comes to winter weather it will make your head spin. So hard to take when you just a few miles away. Just like sunday and in almost all events for example the travelers rest area, where it was covered in snow and ice and you got next to nothing. This happens all the freakin time!!! And, it just happened here again and was even more local just last weekend. We got maybe 2-3 inches of snow and sleet and all was pretty much gone by late sunday while my daughter in pickens sent me a picture late that day and they still had close to 5 inches of snow on the ground. It really is crazy the way the mountains effect our local eco-climate. I have heard references to our area being called the "Thermal Belt" in the past. I asked Lookout several years ago to explain what happens over and over again and why the warm air bubble seems to always parks its sorry behind over us during most winter events and he explained it to a tee:

This is my lookout screw zone bubble in full effect. For those that aren't aware, it's when high pressure is northwest of the mountains which initially causes downslope flow and warming ahead of the system while at the same time causes an area of convergence (northeast winds over the upstate and northwest winds over ga) in the upper savannah river valley in the low levels and sometimes even as high as 850mb...which causes this area to be the very last place to get low level cold air advection. It can be absolutely maddening and can seriously screw this area...and it's happened a number of times. Some of my most painful memories of screw jobs involve heavy rain at 35 or 36 degrees while it was snowing to the east, north, and west..and even southwest...and a bubble of warm air up to 850mb sitting over me that never moved or was overcame. In order to avoid this, this area needs to have more high pressure to the northeast and northeast low level flow sooner ahead of the system or a stronger push of cold air from the northwest before.

Yeah; I vaguely remember that conversation with Lookout, he knows only too well. He's absolutely correct; we have to have a stronger high, or a high that comes in sooner and locks in for CAD senarios, or the cold takes too long to get here and then loses out too quickly to the WAA. Those "cold in place" setups (Jan 88, Jan 2011) work well for us but those seem to only happen decades apart so we're not due for another 20 years or so...! Guess we'll have to settle for our penny and nickle (we don't get dime) events here. :frostymelt:

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On 12/11/2018 at 11:43 PM, DeepSouthSC said:

CAE can be somewhat of a screwzone, but some of this stuff is overplayed.  Columbia has had snow in the past 5 years.  There's been snow (nothing measurable) a couple times during the past two winters.  It's going on 5 years since Columbia has had any measurable snow, though.  

If it wasn't measurable snow does it really count? I don't count it. Reality is CAE has only had 3 winters of the past 15 produce an inch or more total for the whole winter. Absolutely pitiful even for CAE. I stand by my statement that is the biggest screwzone in the state. At least further south you pretty much know you're not getting anything. The upstate is guaranteed something every year, even the western upstate. CAE is always close enough to the action to keep Hope's alive but fails miserably in the end.

 

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37 minutes ago, Waiting on snow said:

If it wasn't measurable snow does it really count? I don't count it. Reality is CAE has only had 3 winters of the past 15 produce an inch or more total for the whole winter. Absolutely pitiful even for CAE. I stand by my statement that is the biggest screwzone in the state. At least further south you pretty much know you're not getting anything. The upstate is guaranteed something every year, even the western upstate. CAE is always close enough to the action to keep Hope's alive but fails miserably in the end.

 

Despite the western upstate screwzone, I fully agree CAE has it worse. We get leftovers, but that's better than nothing. 

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2 hours ago, weatherfide said:

I hate back-loaded winters. I rather have no winter.

I'm Clarance, your guardian angel and you just screwed everyone in the Southeast.  

Winter is over.

Ding, ding.

Every time you hear a bell a forum member gets banned.

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I'm turning the lights on in here. Would say turn the heat on but it probably won't be needed anytime soon.

I remember saying even before our December snow that we better hope the AK trough doesn't become established as it was being modeled. Well it has and its ruining the heart of winter now. Amazing how all the long range awful patterns come to fruition and the eye candy patterns always evaporate. Smfh

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I'm content.  If anything, I'll take the warm temps for now if it results in a drier pattern.  It is simply too damn wet.  We have sugar ants in the house at the end of December!  And like Poimen, I am seriously considering tossing out some fescue.

Looks like a bookend winter.  14" in December, who knows what Fab Feb and Miracle March might bring.  Folks need to calm down a bit.  We still have a solid 75 days of potential to go even after the next couple of weeks.

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Warm in this neck of the woods seems like the front door to the gulf has been left open and endless rain.  Warm and wet or cold and dry appear to be the two options.

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Well, guess I should be happy to have gotten the big storm in early December. The only problem is it seems one big storm is the most we can get around here, and if we have a big storm early then most times we rarely get anything of any significance for the rest of winter. We either get two or three small storms, one big storm, or nothing at all. Getting more than one big storm, or a big storm and then two or three more good storms seems impossible here. 

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38 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

Well, guess I should be happy to have gotten the big storm in early December. The only problem is it seems one big storm is the most we can get around here, and if we have a big storm early then most times we rarely get anything of any significance for the rest of winter. We either get two or three small storms, one big storm, or nothing at all. Getting more than one big storm, or a big storm and then two or three more good storms seems impossible here. 

Don't give up yet. As long as we flip to a favorable pattern by the end of January, we have a (good) chance. There were a few folks that predicted a back-loaded winter. Lets see if they end up being correct.  

**Wouldn't it be terrible if we didn't flip to a cold pattern and ended up with a repeat of last February. 

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16 hours ago, southernskimmer said:

I am fully prepared for a pattern flip. Meaning it will get absolutely frigid and our moisture will be nowhere to be found. 

Hey do you guys keep getting the pop ups at the bottom of the page, sometimes also the top of the page but mostly the bottom, very annoying.  :wacko:

 

16 hours ago, southernskimmer said:

I am fully prepared for a pattern flip. Meaning it will get absolutely frigid and our moisture will be nowhere to be found. 

You know fellows is winter going to ever arrive, at least the cold air, this is ridiculous.

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5 hours ago, Tacoma said:

Hey do you guys keep getting the pop ups at the bottom of the page, sometimes also the top of the page but mostly the bottom, very annoying.  :wacko:

 

You know fellows is winter going to ever arrive, at least the cold air, this is ridiculous.

2

Feels pretty good here. 66º at the moment and my weed yard is definitely beginning to green up. Low heating bill on the way. My big screen TV alone is enough to heat my den. :)

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House full of people last night, needed to put the A/C on to make bearable.  74 yesterday and humid as hell, weeds green and growing.  I likely have to cut the lawn next weekend. 

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Last year for Jan 1st, GSP  was 30/15. Yesterday  it was 68/52; can I trade?

Per GSP,  I'm only supposed to go below  40 once on Sat night, then it warms up again. Someone said back in the fall they were just hoping we wouldn't have a historically warm month this winter, well Jan could do it. THIS STINKS!:weep:

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2 hours ago, Iceagewhereartthou said:

Last year for Jan 1st, GSP  was 30/15. Yesterday  it was 68/52; can I trade?

Per GSP,  I'm only supposed to go below  40 once on Sat night, then it warms up again. Someone said back in the fall they were just hoping we wouldn't have a historically warm month this winter, well Jan could do it. THIS STINKS!:weep:

If things go like planned, this year will be a reversal of last; whereas we have a back load winter. Remember last February heat wave. 

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3 hours ago, FallsLake said:

If things go like planned, this year will be a reversal of last; whereas we have a back load winter. Remember last February heat wave. 

That's where my hat is hung. Really does look like things pick up after the 16th. We should be getting better hints in the next few days as Poiman pointed out this afternoon.  A cold back end has a lot of promise. 

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3 hours ago, frazdaddy said:

That's where my hat is hung. Really does look like things pick up after the 16th. We should be getting better hints in the next few days as Poiman pointed out this afternoon.  A cold back end has a lot of promise. 

I love looking 15 days ahead for cold and it never gets closer! :(

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9 hours ago, FallsLake said:

If things go like planned, this year will be a reversal of last; whereas we have a back load winter. Remember last February heat wave. 

Do you really think it "goes as planned?" I hope so, but am very doubtful. Other than a week in December, this met winter has been excruciatinly blah with temps (following a record warm fall), and were seeing no real signs of meaningful change, just "hoping" for one after Jan 20th. So far, all the pre winter hype and awesome pattern set ups have failed miserably. Yes, some got in on a good storm in Dec, but many don't live in NC, and I hate to waste most of January. Many areas can score big in Feb, so there's still plenty of time, but we don't have too many more weeks to waste. Back loaded is fine, but I hate trying to eek out something meaningful the latter half of Feb into March as there's too many issues to overcome for many areas, and I'm afraid that's where we're headed. 

Still, it's Jan second, and it would be silly to cliff dive this early. Here's hoping! :snowing:

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I’m going to go ahead and drop some chlorine in the pool skimmer tomorrow afternoon. Won’t be long and I want it to be ready. The birds are on the move and the pollen won’t be far behind.

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7 hours ago, WarmNose said:

I’m going to go ahead and drop some chlorine in the pool skimmer tomorrow afternoon. Won’t be long and I want it to be ready. The birds are on the move and the pollen won’t be far behind.

There will be a good hard freeze in April ( teens) just to kill off all the leaves and flowers that got a head start in January! :(

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