CoastalWx Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 Inside 12 hrs it starts to have value. I also look for trend analysis this far out. That's more important than verbatim solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 This is where if the RGEM is on its game, It will be at the 12z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Inside 12 hrs it starts to have value. I also look for trend analysis this far out. That's more important than verbatim solutions. In that case, Overnight models and the HRRR has gone in the right direction at least, Now if it translates to the surface obs then we will know if its real Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 1 minute ago, dryslot said: This is where if the RGEM is on its game, It will be at the 12z run Usually, although it has pooped itself recently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Inside 12 hrs it starts to have value. I also look for trend analysis this far out. That's more important than verbatim solutions. Yeah- these mesos are about direction more than the actual run verbatim. Which way it's heading, etc. They can also be completely wrong. But when it's heading in the correct direction along with the other mesos as a *group*, take a bit of notice. If it was HRRR alone, it would mean nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Usually, although it has pooped itself recently. That's why i threw the caveat with the "if" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Inside 12 hrs it starts to have value. I also look for trend analysis this far out. That's more important than verbatim solutions. yeah, good for trends, not exact snow amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 The HRRR has let me down way too many times past 6hr before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 For those in NE MA and near BOS, I'd like to see these trends continue and not back off. I would hold off getting too excited for now, but the trends are interesting, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 3 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said: yeah, good for trends, not exact snow amounts. Most can figure out where it tracks to what the end results will be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 5 minutes ago, dendrite said: The HRRR has let me down way too many times past 6hr before. Exactly, That's why i throw up caution, I have seen it crap its pants way to often, I want to see exactly where that SLP develops and its posistion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 14 minutes ago, Whineminster said: Is it good to put all our weight into the HRRR? Is that what is normally done so close to an event? Wait, are you serious with this question, or is that tongue-in-cheek sarcasm? It's fine if it's the latter - just can't hear critical vocal tone/inflection, so going just on the words alone ...HELL NO. I don't think anyone reputable, or who wants to be reputable in this game would ever put "all their weight" into one guidance source. Operational philosophy, 101: models are 'virtual' ... ? that may seem obvious, but, sometimes folks get lost in them. The social media vernacular has coined the expression, "modelology" ...it's related to the same flawed approach. The models really serve two purpose: a ... create a paradigm of what "might" happen, and then doing so several different ways (different model types and physics they used) allows the user to decide, based upon experience, education, ...gut intuition and good old fashion art, what is the course of least regret. Yes, sometimes, one model will turn out more correct than it's peers. But even crap-stain tools like the GGEM get shiney dog balls once in a blue moon. Point being, one has to be intelligent about using any of these so called "guidance," or they risk being miss-guided. b... the other is entertainment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 10 minutes ago, dryslot said: 13z HRRR tracks the low over the elbow into BHB, That is quite a few tics to the east #crushed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 RPM also has the cold trend. This model was an inferno yesterday. http:// Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 1 minute ago, dryslot said: Exactly, That's why i throw up caution, I have seen it crap its pants way to often I just look for trends. So far the mesos seem to be a bit further east...like east of BOS vs over the city. That's what I am looking for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 WTF....HMIMBY? Just for the fun of the text speak! In reality, this seems to be an interesting last minute shift but one that is less rare in these events than some might think. Elevation and location might help ORH. Looks like a BIG change for Cape Ann north towards Portland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 Just started here. I am not liking the NAM this morning! It went from 18 to 7 IMBY. NAM I have some grievances with you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 40 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: wife with mini me in NJ today, me thinks this weenie takes a drive to Tawyb or DITs local gentlmens club. You'll be weenieing out at Electric Blue for a different reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Wait, are you serious with this question, or is that tongue-in-cheek sarcasm? Well....I guess it was a serious question? I dunno, just seemed like there was some pants dropping about it, that's why I asked. I really know nothing about the models except what I read on here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 1 minute ago, Whineminster said: Well....I guess it was a serious question? I dunno, just seemed like there was some pants dropping about it, that's why I asked. I really know nothing about the models except what I read on here. The only one dropping draws was Jay. I think 5 of us said to wait and see the trends. But it's fair to say the trends are interesting for at least NE MA and into NE CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I just look for trends. So far the mesos seem to be a bit further east...like east of BOS vs over the city. That's what I am looking for. Yea, I just posted to that up a couple post back, Its really just seeing where the slp tracks, How soon it intensifys and where the mid level low centers follow, The rest speaks for itself Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 Just now, CoastalWx said: The only one dropping draws was Jay. I think 5 of us said to wait and see the trends. But it's fair to say the trends are interesting for at least NE MA and into NE CT. I mean... I wasn't seriously dropping draws. I still have my pants on for now. I will keep you posted when they come off though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 8 minutes ago, klw said: Just started here. I am not liking the NAM this morning! It went from 18 to 7 IMBY. NAM I have some grievances with you! This goes along with the 'needle thread' phenomenon and illustrates how the margin for error is pretty damn tight. Wiggles on the order of 50 miles mean 20 or 2" in these cases. The fact that the very last couple of cycles of model guidance (across varying types at that...) are showing frets, and hints and starts at bumping things east, it makes sense that now your snow numbers get lopped off pretty quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 Man this storm better produce or there will be a lot of deflated weenies. Lots energy and emotions invested in this thing. Good luck peeps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 Keep in mind: Those trends have been great but all it has amounted to was Scott calling it "interesting". It's an interesting development. It's not concrete. Just interesting. We'll see. Pants off sarcasm was a weenie joke gone wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 3 minutes ago, Hazey said: Man this storm better produce or there will be a lot of deflated weenies. Lots energy and emotions invested in this thing. Good luck peeps. The emotions went from east to west, Now they are going from west to east with the swings..........lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 4 minutes ago, sbos_wx said: Keep in mind: Those trends have been great but all it has amounted to was Scott calling it "interesting". It's an interesting development. It's not concrete. Just interesting. We'll see. Pants off sarcasm was a weenie joke gone wrong. Probably just bad timing with people hunting for there rope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 7 minutes ago, dryslot said: The emotions went from east to west, Now they are going from west to east with the swings..........lol Hopefully N NH still gets crushed, I have two friends who bagged two days of work to head for N Conway this morning based on my encouragement. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 3 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Hopefully N NH still gets crushed, I have two friends who bagged two days of work to head for N Conway this morning based on my encouragement. Lol. I think your going to be a hero to them............... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 I'm not liking the east trends as we get closer. I will probably cry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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