Thursday Thumper or Thirst-Quencher

[mahk_webstah]

9 minutes ago, SJonesWX said:

I'm sitting in Tookie right now. town center is tiny for sure, the Everyday Cafe is a great spot, and has a nice bar. if pizza is more your thing, Dimitri's pizza is right around the corner, but it really is just a pizza joint. but they do serve beer.

my favorite spot!  partner and I are regulars there.  goatee and shaved head if you see me there.

[Lava Rock]

29 minutes ago, dryslot said:

At about 03z or so, I'm going to pull a Jim Cantore and go out on FB live..................

"Boom! Yeah, did you hear that"

[dryslot]

"Boom! Yeah, did you hear that"

As he ducks to the right

[SJonesWX]

6 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

my favorite spot!  partner and I are regulars there.  goatee and shaved head if you see me there.

may have seen you there before, but then again, there are a lot of dudes with shaved heads/goatee there lol

[weathafella]

Snowing imby-went right to steady light snow.

[SouthCoastMA]

8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

 

There was actually an event in 2005...Feb 28-Mar 1, 2005 that had a convective-driven meso-low go nuts and "steal" the dynamics away from the interior. We had a warning out for 8-12" in ORH....we still managed something like 5-6", but our thunder was stolen by that compact meso-low. I think Plymouth, MA got about 16" and most of it fell in about a 5 hour window...just destroyed by compact and intense banding down in that area. They had originally been predicted to just get a couple inches of slop and flip to mostly rain. But it didn't happen...

I recall that. I was a senior on campus in Dartmouth MA at the time, and remember walking to the caf in a steady rain. On the way back it turned to heavy sleet, then heavy snow and I believe we ended up with between 10-12". That 9 week period still remains tops for me. Late January through Mid March 2005. 

For this storm, I'm still not expecting anything more than a few flakes at the end, down here. 

[Typhoon Tip]

just amazing how fast this whole thing is moving...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/avn-animated.gif

stars should be twinkling over the top of turbine sounds by midnight easily -

I was looking at rad trends; it does appear there some intensification around the LI sound... perhaps that pivots up as the beginnings.

[weathafella]

18 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

 

There was actually an event in 2005...Feb 28-Mar 1, 2005 that had a convective-driven meso-low go nuts and "steal" the dynamics away from the interior. We had a warning out for 8-12" in ORH....we still managed something like 5-6", but our thunder was stolen by that compact meso-low. I think Plymouth, MA got about 16" and most of it fell in about a 5 hour window...just destroyed by compact and intense banding down in that area. They had originally been predicted to just get a couple inches of slop and flip to mostly rain. But it didn't happen...

I remember walking to the top of Corey Hill at the height around 10pm thinking I may be risking my life.  Full on old school blizzard wth blinding snow, big winds, and cold!

[Zeus]

8 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Snowing imby-went right to steady light snow.

Sir this is not the obs thread; this is the thread in which we focus on future potential for my backyard, not current conditions in yours.

Thank you in advance for your thunderstanding.

[weathafella]

1 minute ago, Zeus said:

Sir this is not the obs thread; this is the thread in which we focus on future potential for my backyard, not current conditions in yours.

Thank you in advance for your thunderstanding.

MethInks you do surprisingly well out towards 495.

[Zeus]

1 minute ago, weathafella said:

MethInks you do surprisingly well out towards 495.

I'm selling tee shirts along Speen Street that say:

"I moved north of the pike and west of 95, and all I got was this lousy taint."

[dryslot]

SPC's Rap +6hr slp projection

[danstorm]

25 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

 

There was actually an event in 2005...Feb 28-Mar 1, 2005 that had a convective-driven meso-low go nuts and "steal" the dynamics away from the interior. We had a warning out for 8-12" in ORH....we still managed something like 5-6", but our thunder was stolen by that compact meso-low. I think Plymouth, MA got about 16" and most of it fell in about a 5 hour window...just destroyed by compact and intense banding down in that area. They had originally been predicted to just get a couple inches of slop and flip to mostly rain. But it didn't happen...

That will forever be the Messenger storm

[weathafella]

Just now, danstorm said:

That will forever be the Messenger storm

No that's not the messenger storm.  The messenger storm is 1/22-23/05-same winter different storm.

[Damage In Tolland]

4 minutes ago, dryslot said:

SPC's Rap +6hr slp projection

I haven't even been following the Rap.. is that colder again?

[Typhoon Tip]

27 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

 

There was actually an event in 2005...Feb 28-Mar 1, 2005 that had a convective-driven meso-low go nuts and "steal" the dynamics away from the interior. We had a warning out for 8-12" in ORH....we still managed something like 5-6", but our thunder was stolen by that compact meso-low. I think Plymouth, MA got about 16" and most of it fell in about a 5 hour window...just destroyed by compact and intense banding down in that area. They had originally been predicted to just get a couple inches of slop and flip to mostly rain. But it didn't happen...

Yeah, absolutely (great example btw...)

Suppose something like that would come down to a whopper candidate for a now-cast.  I mean "maaaaybe" we could argue that the NAM sorta kinda wanted that when it was around hour 72 the other day - recall...some pretty constricted appeals with 'micro' low skirting by east of Logan.  It lost it in the run up though so not sure it's really the same thing - could be coincidence there, though it really looks/feels the same.

I'm staring to wonder if my thoughts re the non-hydro stat modeling from two days ago were not as wrong as I first so willingly canned yesterday...  Oh well.  We'll see...

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, weathafella said:

No that's not the messenger storm.  The messenger storm is 1/22-23/05-same winter different storm.

No, messenger was all over that storm too...the Feb 28-Mar 1 system. He was obsessing over the covnective meso-low and it turned out to be a huge factor. He was posting pics of like 15" of snow back on WWBB, lol.

 

Anyways, back on topic...I don't think it is a shock that models are busting right now. I had always been skeptical of how quickly they eroded the boundary layer chill. It will change to rain for many, but there could actually be some decent snow before that happens.

[danstorm]

5 minutes ago, weathafella said:

No that's not the messenger storm.  The messenger storm is 1/22-23/05-same winter different storm.

No I don't think so - it's not the Blizzard... I lived in Boston then - the storm Will referenced dumped on Scott and he submitted reports that the NWS ignored.

Caused a real firestorm replete with side of the road pics all around his hood

[weathafella]

1 minute ago, danstorm said:

No I don't think so - it's not the Blizzard... I lived in Boston then - the storm Will referenced dumped on Scott and he submitted reports that the NWS ignored.

Caused a real firestorm replete with side of the road pics all around his hood

So classic messenger!

[dryslot]

5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I haven't even been following the Rap.. is that colder again?

I have not looked at the upper levels or surface temps, I was more interested to see where it sets up the SLP, whether it was east or tucked in

[ORH_wxman]

This is gonna be a little blue nuke for the 495 belt and NW...I'm not really seeing it go over to rain at this point. I mean, can't rule it out for a brief time, but I just don't see how we're going to get enough of a warm push to offset the lift. The warm layer is pretty weak sauce around 925.

[dryslot]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

This is gonna be a little blue nuke for the 495 belt and NW...I'm not really seeing it go over to rain at this point. I mean, can't rule it out for a brief time, but I just don't see how we're going to get enough of a warm push to offset the lift. The warm layer is pretty weak sauce around 925.

+2 +3?

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

This is gonna be a little blue nuke for the 495 belt and NW...I'm not really seeing it go over to rain at this point. I mean, can't rule it out for a brief time, but I just don't see how we're going to get enough of a warm push to offset the lift. The warm layer is pretty weak sauce around 925.

Could you please extend that SW? Please ?

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

52 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

 

There was actually an event in 2005...Feb 28-Mar 1, 2005 that had a convective-driven meso-low go nuts and "steal" the dynamics away from the interior. We had a warning out for 8-12" in ORH....we still managed something like 5-6", but our thunder was stolen by that compact meso-low. I think Plymouth, MA got about 16" and most of it fell in about a 5 hour window...just destroyed by compact and intense banding down in that area. They had originally been predicted to just get a couple inches of slop and flip to mostly rain. But it didn't happen...

Yeah the Cape got amounts near 12-15" especially the Upper Cape and Canal area.

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

+2 +3?

Not even. Not in that area...further SE maybe. It gets to like +1 maybe over the 495 belt from about Littleton to westboro. I'm starting to think that's even overdone but we will see. 

[SouthCoastMA]

I remember NWS seemingly ignoring several reports from the the inverted trough storm for some areas along the south coast sometime in mid march 2013. - IIRC some areas along 195 towards the bridges were reporting between 10-12" but I believe the NWS only posted amounts around 6" or 7"  which were totals more in line with their forecast. I wish I could pull up old PNS totals for that. I could also be mixing up storms. 

 

[dryslot]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Not even. Not in that area...further SE maybe. It gets to like +1 maybe over the 495 belt from about Littleton to westboro. I'm starting to think that's even overdone but we will see. 

I would think +1 to 1.5 would be easy to overcome, In your thoughts where would the max temp be to be able to overcome at that level?

[DomNH]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Not even. Not in that area...further SE maybe. It gets to like +1 maybe over the 495 belt from about Littleton to westboro. I'm starting to think that's even overdone but we will see. 

I don't think I rain. Someone in this area gets close to double digits.

[forkyfork]

move the crush zone east. of course there's a last minute shift

[ORH_wxman]

5 minutes ago, dryslot said:

I would think +1 to 1.5 would be easy to overcome, In your thoughts where would the max temp be to be able to overcome at that level?

Well it all depends on the UVVs. If you have like 80 microbars per second you can prob wash out 2C pretty easy...lol. But easier said than done to get that lift. This storm should be able to produce it though...esp up that way as it goes nuts.