OceanStWx Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 The stronger surface low is also creating stronger ageostrophic processes. Greater CAD and cold drain from the N, even if the high doesn't change much just because the low is stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 Just now, CoastalWx said: Next week a wave develops along arctic front. A little -SN verbatim. LOL. 1001mb to 988mb in 6hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 For those worried about H placement, there will be a new solution in 6hrs. This thing is still all over the place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 2 minutes ago, Hazey said: For those worried about H placement, there will be a new solution in 6hrs. This thing is still all over the place. Put me in the never worried category. I don't care if it rains or snows. Just placing my thoughts on what I see in a model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 Canadian like Euro. No stemwinder like GFS . 2 waves. 2nd is stronger. High end advisory to low end earnings thru end of Monday. Makes sense Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 4 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: LOL. 1001mb to 988mb in 6hrs. James will blow into the CC Canal, MA with that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Canadian like Euro. No stemwinder like GFS . 2 waves. 2nd is stronger. High end advisory to low end earnings thru end of Monday. Makes sense Good luck up there ETA: Day 9-10 storm ugly for all of us, but once again you guys get thumped before the rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 18 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I'd like to see the low across ACK. LOL. But hey, it's early so I'll take whatever. My guess is the solutions today will not be the final result. I'll second that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 I think the 12z CMC look is probably the best case for maximizing snow across the area.... pretty much just focuses on the second wave and drops a general 6-8" before ending with a brief period of drizzle far SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 Ukie looks weak and strung out. Hard to tell details with 24 hour increments between 72 and 96 and 120 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 28 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Canadian like Euro. No stemwinder like GFS . 2 waves. 2nd is stronger. High end advisory to low end earnings thru end of Monday. Makes sense I wouldn't exactly call the GFS a stemwinder...it's more amped obviously than GGEM/Euro/Ukie, but it gets a lot of resistance as it approaches NE with that high...and we see a secondary sfc reflection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 47 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Maybe 36-48 hours of snow/ice if that's right? Ya that almost never happens like that...I would bet against anything like that duration. 99.9% of the time it doesn't precipitate continuously like that...even lightly, there is always a lull; and the lull is usually alot longer than you think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 Models like another period of snow 12/15. GEFS hitting that pretty hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 2 minutes ago, weathafella said: Models like another period of snow 12/15. GEFS hitting that pretty hard. Ukie liked that one too...though it had it more on the 14th...same system GFS had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 GFS has 6"+ for the 14/15th system for CHH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 The GFS likely produces a blizzard for the Cape and Islands come between hours 156-168 where snow falls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 Oh boy James is throwing around the "B" Word already....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 1 hour ago, OceanStWx said: The stronger surface low is also creating stronger ageostrophic processes. Greater CAD and cold drain from the N, even if the high doesn't change much just because the low is stronger. i'm kinda with Will's assessment of this run from a while ago - i'd characterize it as a longer duration of light snow/flurries --> a burst to moderate... --> light pings and zr N of the Pike ( with 33.4 drizzle for Tolland) ...followed by a concreting later on as that attenuating continental dumpage floods back in.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 39 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I wouldn't exactly call the GFS a stemwinder...it's more amped obviously than GGEM/Euro/Ukie, but it gets a lot of resistance as it approaches NE with that high...and we see a secondary sfc reflection. The high placement overall in QC looks better today on models than it did yesterday. Even the GFS with a more wound up primary is very cold in the boundary layer on Monday... that's probably all snow/ice even down to HFD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 Gefs maintaining ak/dateline ridging through the duration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 Gefs have a nice -EPO and SE ridge. I'd take that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Gefs have a nice -EPO and SE ridge. I'd take that. Scooter locking a White Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 one thing that's different about the leading set up compared to that 2008 event is that the 00z oper. Euro and now this 12z gfs both have sufficient 700 to 850 mb RH saturation streaming very far out ahead of the 'main impulse'... this run of the gfs has grains and flurries in a general winter gray tint already at 84 hours... 2008 came in like a wall - that's very different actually. we were partial sun at dawn, then it went clouds and S/S+ with extreme rapidity. it was like being on the phone at the office and looking up over the cubical and seeing it start snowing...then get off the call and walk to the bathroom and on the way back you can't see out the window. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 5 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Scooter locking a White Christmas. He guaranteed it a week ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 Scott - you almost gotta wonder if big ice is out there somewhere... not sure/aware of any case studies/papers out there about big ice and the sort of pattern/teleconnector evolutions and so forth that took place prior. i suppose just looking at them case-by-case on one's own might help with that.. but, the general idea would seem to support icy scenarios with abundant se heights/heat available to lop over -epo syrup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 3 minutes ago, dryslot said: He guaranteed it a week ago " We talked about it" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 13 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: one thing that's different about the leading set up compared to that 2008 event is that the 00z oper. Euro and now this 12z gfs both have sufficient 700 to 850 mb RH saturation streaming very far out ahead of the 'main impulse'... this run of the gfs has grains and flurries in a general winter gray tint already at 84 hours... 2008 came in like a wall - that's very different actually. we were partial sun at dawn, then it went clouds and S/S+ with extreme rapidity. it was like being on the phone at the office and looking up over the cubical and seeing it start snowing...then get off the call and walk to the bathroom and on the way back you can't see out the window. Yeah you are right...those previous events did come in like a wall...in this one we have that really weak frontrunning shortwave which will probably have the "snow overcast" sky all day on Sunday if not flurries or light snow later in the day before more meaningful precipitation moves in late at night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 15 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Scooter locking a White Christmas. I'll play the odds and go with a cutter prior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 Just now, CoastalWx said: I'll play the odds and go with a cutter prior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 12 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Scott - you almost gotta wonder if big ice is out there somewhere... not sure/aware of any case studies/papers out there about big ice and the sort of pattern/teleconnector evolutions and so forth that took place prior. i suppose just looking at them case-by-case on one's own might help with that.. but, the general idea would seem to support icy scenarios with abundant se heights/heat available to lop over -epo syrup. Well in a very broad sense, cold pressing south and a SE ridge would be a recipe for someone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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